Will consumers cause the next recession?


The latest data are showing consumers are not willing to buy.

The above graph shows the growth in consumer goods. They have declined -9.21% y/y. This is the largest contraction in orders for consumer goods in the last 20 years!

The implications are obvious. These data suggest the economy is weak. It implies commodities (gold, oil, copper, agriculturals, lumber) are not likely to rise much.

What about profits? They are coming in weak. The business cycle is alive and well. Commodity and commodity-sensitive asset classes are not likely to perform well.

More details in The Peter Dag Portfolio on www.peterdag.com
George Dagnino, PhD
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
No. 1 bond timer in the past 12 months. 

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