This is a scary trend

This chart show the growth of new orders for consumer goods. As of January (latest data available) orders were down a scary -11.8% y/y. (Click on the chart to enlarge it)
This graph spells recession - if the data are not revised in a major way (which is possible).
It is no surprise commodities are plunging. Their trend confirms the weakness of the economy - as shown in the following chart.
The above chart shows the change in new orders for consumer goods and the change in oil prices. The relationship is just incredible.
Oil is declining for a very simple reason - the economy is weak, very weak. The same can be said for the other commodities such as gold.
It is wrong to say crude oil is good news for consumers. It is the other way around. Weak demand is causing prices to decline.
These are important trends and they offer investment opportunities - if you believe in the forces of the business cycle (as I discussed in great detail in my book Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets).
More details in The Peter Dag Portfolio on www.peterdag.com

George Dagnino, PhD
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
No. 1 bond timer in the past 12 months. 

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