3/31/12

Observations

After 30 years, I met my uncle again in the mid 1990s. A lifetime. The last time we talked I was a teenager. I was spending the summer at my grandparents’ house in Genoa (Italy). Then, he started traveling around the world as captain of luxury liners. I moved to the USA and he settled in New Zealand.

When we met again in Rome, we walked leisurely through the stylish streets near the Spanish Steps. Like in an elegant ballroom, beautiful people strolled -- to be seen and admired for their good taste.

As we talked, we realized we were moving toward almost exactly the same conclusions about life, religions, and systems of life. He eventually told me about his conviction in long-term investing. At that time it was easy to be great believers in long-term investing. The global stock markets were rising since 1982. For more than 15 years at a 20% pace.

Of course, I mentioned to him that long-term does not exist. The average 9% return from stocks is just that -- an average. It is an average of long periods when the market was flat (as from 1928 to 1949 and from 1968 to 1982) and when it was roaring at a 20% pace as in the 1982-2000 period.

Long-term has little significance unless investors realize in which period they are living. Is it a 20% per year or 0% per year period? If you are 55 years old and you miss this important decision, your retirement money could be very disappointing.

If you began making plans for your retirement in 1999-2000, expecting a long-term return of 9%, you would be very disappointed by now. Many retired people had to go back to work because their investments were decimated after 2000.

It is difficult to accept that long-term does not exist. It is a tempting concept. It is a lazy way to make money. But you and I know that there is no lazy way to make money. Like all the formulas to make money they are bound to fail. Like …”over the long term I’ll be OK.”

(This Observations appeared in the 7/28/03 issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio).

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Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/29/12

The markets always win

The Telegraph - France is in talks with the United States and Britain on a possible release of strategic oil stocks to push fuel prices lower, French ministers said on Wednesday, four weeks before the country's presidential election.

The reason commodities have been rising is because of negative real interest rates - short-term interest rates below inflation. In other words, because of excessive monetary stimulus.

Releasing strategic oil stocks does not solve the problem. The problem has been created by cheap money.

Eventually higher commodity prices will cause the economy to slow down and commodities to decline.

The markets always win.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

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Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

The competitive issue cannot be solved with money alone

The Telegraph - The European Central Bank (ECB) said loans to the real economy fell in February, scotching claims that radical long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) would stem the crisis.

Open Europe's Raoul Ruparel said: "The LTRO has succeeded in avoiding a severe funding crunch...[But] it does not tackle the underlying lending risks which the banks are still keen to avoid, particularly with the looming recession in Europe."


Banks are not lending because they know full well that the countries in need of money have a huge trade deficit. In other words they are not creating the wealth to pay back the debt.

Money alone does not solve the problem of relative competitiveness and lack of a market mechanism to make exports cheaper - not necessarily better.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/28/12

Business cycle and technical patterns

I find very revealing the fact that commodities are sinking, Including gold.

Commodities bottomed in December. Rose until the end of February-early March. They peaked in March and now they are declining.

The weakness in gold could very well be a hint that inflation will continue heading down and that the economy is weakening again.

Income stocks should be doing well in this environment. Time will tell.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/26/12

Is a recession coming?

This indicator (source: EconWeekly) suggests a recession could be around the corner (click on the chart to enlarge it).

The revised leading indicator of The Conference Board is also showing a downshifting in the growth of the economy.

We follow these and many other indicators to determine a low risk strategy to take advantage of economic trends. Is the economy really slowing down? Which asset classes are likely to appreciate?

This is the kind of question we answer in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio to guide our subscribers' strategic decisions.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Thought of the day

The European countries in financial trouble have a large current account deficit. The strong countries of Europe have a large current account surplus.

Now, it does not take a genius to figure out that austerity is not going to solve the European problems. This is the kind of leaders Europe sports. They do not even can define the problem.

The problem is productivity. Europe is bound to disintegrate.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/25/12

Germany, "the fading miracle", "the sick man of Europe" has changed and is now a strong, vibrant country. Why? Maybe there is a lesson somewhere. Find out how they changed their economy.


Please read this article. It appeared in Der Spiegel. Click here.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/24/12

Observations

After 30 years, I met my uncle again in the mid 1990s. A lifetime. The last time we talked I was a teenager. I was spending the summer at my grandparents’ house in Genoa (Italy). Then, he started traveling around the world as captain of luxury liners. I moved to the USA and he settled in New Zealand.

When we met again in Rome, we walked leisurely through the stylish streets near the Spanish Steps. Like in an elegant ballroom, beautiful people strolled -- to be seen and admired for their good taste.

As we talked, we realized we were moving toward almost exactly the same conclusions about life, religions, and systems of life. He eventually told me about his conviction in long-term investing. At that time it was easy to be great believers in long-term investing. The global stock markets were rising since 1982. For more than 15 years at a 20% pace.

Of course, I mentioned to him that long-term does not exist. The average 9% return from stocks is just that -- an average. It is an average of long periods when the market was flat (as from 1928 to 1949 and from 1968 to 1982) and when it was roaring at a 20% pace as in the 1982-2000 period.

Long-term has little significance unless investors realize in which period they are living. Is it a 20% per year or 0% per year period? If you are 55 years old and you miss this important decision, your retirement money could be very disappointing.

If you began making plans for your retirement in 1999-2000, expecting a long-term return of 9%, you would be very disappointed by now. Many retired people had to go back to work because their investments were decimated after 2000.

It is difficult to accept that long-term does not exist. It is a tempting concept. It is a lazy way to make money. But you and I know that there is no lazy way to make money. Like all the formulas to make money they are bound to fail. Like …”over the long term I’ll be OK.”

(This Observations appeared in the 7/28/03 of The Peter Dag Portfolio.)

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/23/12

Thought of the day

I read extensive studies from different sources and political tendencies about income inequality.

The quality of the analysis and the amount of information is really overwhelming. After reading all these scholarly papers I asked myself what were they really trying to say? What was the point? What was the message?

It is so simple and it took so many words! Income inequality, ladies and gentlemen, depends on education. Yes, on education.

Job availability, salary, status, unemployment rate depends exclusively on education.

When I was young I did not know what to do. And I kept studying. I exhausted the degrees in Italy. So, I came to the United Sates. And I kept studying difficult subjects in a language I did not speak and understand. Eventually I exhausted the degrees I could take.

Here I was in the real world. I still was not sure what I liked in this foreign land. But my education kept me floating. I was in demand. Slowly I found out what I liked and applied what I studied. My brain was trained to think.

But the bottom line is that I survived. I always had a job. Why? Because I had a solid education.

When will the nation focus on this simple concept? The only way to reduce income inequality is to have an educated nation!

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Question

Bloomberg - President Barack Obama traveled to Oklahoma -- the heart of Republican territory -- to beat back criticism that his administration's energy policies are driving up gas prices, announcing an expedited review of a portion of a controversial oil pipeline.

The expedited review is unlikely to affect the project's timeline. As Bloomberg News reports, the southern leg of TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline is scheduled to begin construction as early as June and company officials say the quicker review is unlikely to affect that timeline.


Is this energy policy or just plain politics in light of the elections in November?

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/22/12

About commodities

Commodities are the most sensitive indicator of what is really happening to the economy.

Copper is sinking. DBC (commodity index) is very weak. DBA (agriculturals) is tanking. Gold is very weak (as our models were expecting). Oil is below the peak of April of last year.

What does it mean? It means demand for commodities is low. Why? Because the economy is not strong enough.

If the economy were strengthening commodities would be soaring. In my next issues I will discuss some important indicators that will shed some light on the strength of the economy.

Why do we care? Because your investments in a weak economy are much different from those in a stronger economy.

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Nothing changes. The correlation is still the same.

The correlation remains. very strong. This is how the markets opened this morning.

Stocks weak. Commodities weak - including copper, gold, and oil. Bonds strong - yields down.

As I discussed in my book, declining commodities and lower yields are found when the economy is weak. Is the economy weakening?

I find this information useful if one wants to build a balanced portfolio.

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/21/12

The rare earth issue - the Chinese perspective (rebuttal?)

BEIJING, March 15 (Xinhuanet) -- US President Barack Obama announced on Tuesday that the United States, joined by Japan and the European Union, has filed complaints with the World Trade Organization over China's rare earth export quotas.

He said this as an effort to give "American workers and American businesses a fair shot in the global economy".

His words, however, imply that he does not really care about the environmental degradation caused by China's disorderly and excessive mining of rare earth materials, as long as US workers and businesses can profit from China's cheap supply.

This is shocking for a president who likes to portray himself as pro-environment when he fights Republican presidential candidates over clean energy issues, or when he tried to restore the US' leadership role at the UN Climate Change Conference, in Copenhagen, in December 2009.

China's new regulations on rare earth manufacturing and exports, which were introduced a few years ago, are based on the sound rationale of sustainable growth and environmental protection.

With only a third of the world's rare earth deposits, China now produces over 90 percent of the global rare earth minerals, a group of 17 elements that are widely used in high-tech products such as solar panels, batteries for electric cars and cell phones.

The lack of strong regulations in the past has posed grave dangers to the country and its people by depleting natural resources and destroying the environment. For example, rare earth mining has polluted drinking water in regions along some waterways linked to rare earth mines.

Experts believe it will cost tens of billions of dollars to repair the ecosystems damaged by rampant rare earth mining over the past decades. And American, Japanese and European businesses are unlikely to foot the bill.

On the other hand, countries such as the US, Canada and Australia, which used to produce rare earth minerals, stopped such manufacturing a decade ago due to the environmental concerns and the higher cost compared with Chinese exports.

When talking about China's purchase of raw materials from Africa and Latin America, many people in the US and Europe like to use the word "grabbing resources" or even "colonialism", but none of these people use similar words to describe the West's exploitation of China's cheap rare earth minerals.

This is just hypocrisy.

According to the US Geological Survey, there are about 13 million metric tons of rare earth deposits in the US. Instead of buying from China, Obama should propose tapping the US' own deposits. Such a move would not only enable the US to share the responsibility for the supply of rare earth materials, it would also create jobs for Americans, the single most powerful weapon Obama needs to beat a Republican candidate in November's election.

In filing the WTO case, Obama has to convince people why China should deplete its resources and disregard environmental and public health concerns, issues that are addressed prominently both in China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) and the recent World Report on China.

A win for the US, Japan and the EU in the WTO case would be a loss for the global environmental cause.

(Source: China Daily)

Technical note

Defensive stocks such as REITs, staples, discretionary and utilities outperformed the market from January to October 2011. This was a period when the broad averages struggled.

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Interesting data

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Jason Trennert, managing partner at Strategas Research Partners, talks with Bloomberg's Adam Johnson and Trish Regan about U.S. fiscal policy. They speak on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

Click here to review the data.

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio - 8 issues. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/20/12

Technical patterns

The market opened weak. But defensive stocks, those that do well in a weak economy, are firm.

Commodities: weak.
Yields: down (they move with commodities).
Sectors: defensive firm (some financial, healthcare, food, utilities)
Market: low beta/volatility stocks doing better.

This is a consistent pattern.

I always believed that an investment in low volatiltiy assets is the best in the long run. See also on this subject my video on Timing ETFs.

More details? Take advantage of a 2-MONTH FREE SUBCRIPTION to The Peter Dag Portfolio. Just send us an email to info@peterdag.com with your name requesting your free subscription. You will receive by email your user id and password to access our service at www.peterdag.com. NEW SUBSCRIBERS PLEASE.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/19/12

Thought of the day

Democracy in Europe is dead.

It is inconceivable to see a continent run by unelected bureaucrats, causing enormous financial pain among millions of Europeans.

What is even more inconceivable is how the populace has been convinced that the only way to well-being is a united Europe - without realizing the depth of their miseries.

The Europeans have accepted this theme without revolting, without realizing their rights have been taken a way. Sad. Very sad.

Is this the future of the world?

3/18/12

Observations

A subscriber sent me an e-mail saying that “pages 5, 6, & 7 are the most valuable in your service. Please continue!”

Thank you. I really appreciated this comment. Why?

When I was writing those pages I was thinking that, maybe, they were too detailed. What were the risks? The opportunities?

Often I wonder if the rigid logic I am trying to find in the data makes sense to you, my subscribers.

Am I exaggerating? Should I be a little more relaxed about how the world works? Why do I try to find logic and explain everything in terms of lead/lags? In terms of cause of effect? Looking only at the graphs of the most recent data?

I look at this information because I do not want to be confused by generalized clichés found on any financial page of a daily newspaper. I am trying to resist to be overcome by the emotion of the moment. I find refuge in a quantitative world dominated only by logic.

Does it make sense? I do not know. What I know is that in writing the last issue, especially pages 5, 6, and 7, my mind was trying to seriously understand the facts. What was really happening? Were we at an important turning point?

Then I challenged myself. What if I were wrong? And my mind wandered again looking at all possible angles.

The strategist in me tried to sort it all out in alternative scenarios that could be used as investment guidelines.

“Will my readers understand what I am trying to say and why?” “Will they find it useful in managing their money?” I kept on thinking and writing about the issues I saw in front of me.

For this reason I was very pleased when I received that particular e-mail. The subscriber understood what I was trying to do. I was trying to lay on the table a thought process. I am very grateful you found it helpful.

(This Observations appeared in the issue of 7/14/2003 of The Peter Dag Portfolio.)

3/17/12

Much ado about nothing

The press and blogosphere are full of reasons why gas prices are rising together with crude oil.

China's demand, Middle East tension, Iran, demand and supply,...... Nonsense!

I showed several times that all commodities, and especially crude oil, rise when short-term interest rates are below the level of inflation. In other words crude oil rises when real interest rates are negative.

Crude oil and commodities in general are stable when real interest rates are positive (short-term interest rates are above inflation.

The policy of the central banks create instability when they force short-term interest rates below inflation.

I have also discussed in detail these relationships in my book Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets.

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/16/12

The seasonality of asset classes is alive and well




Bonds are plunging. Stocks are rising. Commodities are firm. This short video gives you a recap of asset classes seasonality.

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.


Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/15/12

Technical patterns

Gold (ETF: GLD) is trading below its 150 day moving average. Instead DBC (commodity index ETF) is still above its 150 dma.

Both ETFs have been going nowhere because of the sluggish global economy.

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

More on the dollar

I shiver when I hear the experts on CNBC talking about the dollar. They start talking about Bernanke, interest rates, China. Nonsense.

The dollar reflects our productivity and therefore our growth potential.

Low productivity growth implies low growth potential, high trade deficits (that need to be financed), and a weak dollar.

Trade deficit and the economy

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce,
announced today that total January exports of $180.8 billion
and imports of $233.4 billion resulted in a goods and services
deficit of $52.6 billion, up from $50.4 billion in December,
revised.


The continued increase in the trade deficits reflects our loss of competitiveness, as discussed here many times.

The decline in productivity growth results in slow economic growth, weak dollar, and substantial borrowing to finance the trade deficit.

We are fortunate to have a central bank that can print money. Printing money, however, does not improve our productivity and hides the health of our economy.

How long will it last without disrupting the functioning of our financial markets?

3/14/12

My interview wth MoneyTalks-China

1.您能告诉我们《聪明投资》中您最关键的投资理念吗?
1.Could you tell us the key points of your investment philosophy from your book "PROFITING IN BULL OR BEAR MARKETS"?

The main ideas behind the book are:

1. Provide the tools to recognize whether the economy is strengthening or weakening.
2. Make investors realize that asset classes doing well when the economy grows above its average pace (e.g. commodity sensitive stocks) are different from investments doing well when the economy grows below its average pace (e.g. banks, insurance, real estate).

2.索罗斯认为美国经济已处于双底衰退阶段,您怎么看美国经济?
2.In George Soros’s opinion, the American economy is in a double bottom decline period, how do you think about America economics?

The USA has lost the competitive edge. Productivity growth is close to zero percent. The dollar, as a result, is sinking for some time. Printing money is not the solution. The US economy will grow at a 2% pace, well below its 3% average.

3.您如何看待全球经济?欧洲和中国呢?
3. How do you think about the world economics?Europe and China economics?

Europe has huge problems because is trying to put together countries with much different productivity growth, unit labor costs, and trade deficits. The countries with large trade deficits cannot devalue because of the common currency and they have reached their borrowing limit. Europe, as is constructed, cannot survive. I have been saying this at least since 2003.

One of the main challenges for China is to achieve a free floating Renminbi. A floating currency is the market mechanism to correct imbalances. Several European countries are having financial problems because they do not have this safety valve.


4.全球经济处于您枯荣经济圈的那一个阶段?在这个阶段该如何投资?
4.Which is phase do you think the world economics now,growth, prosperity, recession, recovery?And in this phase, how shoud us to ivest?

We are slowing down. All the recent leading indicators from the OECD point to this phase.

5.您是否认为金价已见顶?金价未来走势您如何看?油价和大宗商品价格呢?
5. Do you think gold price is too high ?How about gold price in future you think?How about oil price and commodity prices?

Commodity prices and gold (another special commodity) decline when the global economy is weakening, as it is now. Commodity and precious metals are an attractive investment if you believe the global economy is strengthening.

6.穆迪、标普等美国评级机构不断下调欧洲国家的评级,你怎么看欧洲债务问题的前景?欧债危机下一步将对全球经济有怎样的影响?您预测欧洲问题最终会什么时候如何解决?
6.As the American rating agencies such as Moody and Standard & Poor's continuously cut credit rating of the European countries, what do you think about the foreground of The European debt, and how will the Europe debt crisis impact the global economy? When will the Europe debt crisis be solved?

The European crisis cannot be resolved as long as countries with large trade deficits are not allowed to devalue (an important market mechanism to make countries more competitive). Europe will have to split in two Euros - the strong Euro and the weak Euro.

Europe is a major trading partner for China and the rest of the world. Europe’s collapse will result in improvements in the global economy because it will eliminate market uncertainties and distortions.

7.您觉得全球范围来看,目前该买的地区和具体的投资品种、投资行业是什么?
7,, As far as you are concerned, what’s the best investment variety or industry and where is the best place globally?

Income producing investments.

8.在投资策略上,您对投资者有哪些建议?您认为投资的关键在哪里?
8.Do you have any advices for investors on investment strategy, and what’s the significance?

Be careful. It is not easy to invest and select attractive investments. You need to find an investment process that fits your personality. Then change it slowly to reflect new knowledge you acquire. The worst mistake for investors is not following their investment process all the time.



9. 目前中国股票估值跌至历史低位。您觉得A股跌倒底了么?现在是入场抄底的时机么?该买什么?
9.In your opinion, does A-share market fall to the bottom when Chinese stock valuation has reached a historic low? Is it the time to copy the bottom now? What should investors buy?

No one knows. One think I am sure -- the markets eventually always win.

10.目前发展中国国家资金回流发达国家,您对此怎么看?那发展中国家在您看来有哪些投资机会?
10. what do you think about the phenomenon that the fund is flowing back from developing countries to the developed ones? And are there any investment opportunities for developing countries?

Money flows toward the countries that have least barriers for investors. The developed countries are becoming too defensive, which is the reason funds are floating toward developing countries.

11.通常情况下,您通过哪些因素来判定股市市场拐点?
11. Normally, though what factors do you estimate the stock market inflection point?

The stock market – as discussed in my book – peaks when the economy is strengthening, inflation is rising, short-term interest rates are rising, the yield curve is flattening or inverted, and credit risk has been rising.


12.在目前通胀的形势下,投资者应该如何投资?
12. How should people invest under such situation of inflation?

Rising inflation is accompanied by rising commodities and rising bond yields. Shorting bonds is an attractive strategy. Raising cash and wait for short-term interest rates to decline is also a valid option.


13.对普通投资者,您能否给出几句话的理财建议?不仅仅局限在股票和大宗商品。
13.Are there any words about personal finance for ordinary investors, not only limited to stocks and commodity?

Study.Study. Study about investments. Be careful if it sounds too good. Be very prudent until you prove to yourself you can survive a complete business cycle.

14.在道琼斯指数创下2008年以来新高的情况下,中国股票指数却十年来原地踏步、没有上涨,中国指数基金持有人并没有赚到钱,您对此如何看?
14. Now the Dow Jones index rise a new high point position after 2008,but in last ten years,the China’s Stock index number didn’t rise,chines investors who have the index funds didn’t gain money,what your opinions of this.

Markets decline when inflation rises, governments over-regulate and tighten monetary policy. China cannot escape the forces of the business cycle.

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/13/12

This is what I thought listening to this video.



I am an immigrant as Dr. Taleb. I share his frustrations as he witnessed the changes that have been occurring to this country. A country that attracted us for its dynamism.

Dr. Taleb is not alone in thinking about the changes that have to be made. Somehow, however, the country seems to be going in the same direction, on autopilot.

Will his ideas, and the ideas of many other, be powerful enough to change the direction of our wonderful country?

Technical patterns.

Low volatility (VIX) is typically associated with a rising stock market (click on the chart to enlarge it).

The time to worry is when volatility rises rapidly, indicating investrs' concern about the financial environment.

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/12/12

A sensitive economic indicator

The markets are always right. We may not agree with them. But they are always right.

I watch closely commodities. Stronger commodities are saying the economy is improving. Weaker commodities take place when the economy weakens.

Right now commodities seem to be weakening again (Click on the image to enlarhe it).

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/11/12

Trade deficits and economic collapse

The reason a country has large trade deficits is because it is not competitive. The outcome is that its currency devalues. Following a protracted devaluation of the currency its products become competitive again. And the trade deficit declines and the borrowing needed to finance the trade deficit decreases.

This is what is happening to the USA with its huge trade deficit. The markets correct this imbalance by selling dollars. The dollar will have to decline long enough until our products/services become competitive again. Only then will borrowing to finance the deficit will decrease. This is the reason the USA does not have the same problems as Europe.

The problem with Europe is that the exchange rate adjustment cannot take place. Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland have huge trade deficits. But their "currency - the Euro - cannot be devalued. They have to keep borrowing to finance the trade deficits.

They are being asked to implement dicey austerity programs. What they need is to implement programs to improve their competitiveness. But their democratic-socialist policies will never allow this transformation.

This European issues cannot be hidden by mountain of money directed to the banking system and governments.

What's next?



It Took $10M in Taxpayer-Funded Subsidies To Create $50 "Green" Light Bulb to Replace a $1 Bulb

From the Washington Post:


"The U.S. government last year announced a that it would spend $10 million award of taxpayer money to fund dubbed the “L Prize,” for any manufacturer that could create a “green” but affordable light bulb. Energy Secretary Steven Chu said the prize would spur industry to offer the costly bulbs, known as LEDs, at prices “affordable for American families.” There was also a “Buy America” component. Portions of the bulb would have to be made in the United States.


Now the winning bulb is on the market. The price tag is $50 (currently $60 on eBay).

(Source: Carpe Diem)

3/10/12

Perspective on Greece bailout.

(Source: excerpts from Der Spiegel interview with professor H. Hau). Hau: The agreed-upon debt haircut is insufficient. No matter what, there will be a second, proper bankruptcy. It will probably take another nine months to three years, but then there will be a really big crisis, both economically and politically. The problem has only been deferred. The next time it will only affect the taxpayers, though.

Hau: The banks have been stalling for time over the last one and a half years. They wanted to take as many interest payments with them as possible. Now they realize that time is running out and have thus changed their strategy. They are just trying to pass on as many debts as possible to the public sector. From their perspective, this is a smart move. But it will be a catastrophe for taxpayers in the end.

3/9/12

A lot of red ink


Wow! (Click on the graph to enlarge it)

3/8/12

Technical patterns

In the last 3 years, volatility between 16 and 20 has been associated with the formation of a market top.

Is this time different? Time will tell.

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Thought of the day

"America has become a society in which the people are wise enough to select their own leaders, but too incompetent to choose the right lightbulb." Mark R Levin

3/6/12

Technical patterns

The weakness of the market is dominated by cyclical stocks. Expecially commodity-sensitive ones.

Is the market trying to tell us to favor defensive stocks and that the economy is slowing down.

Time will tell.

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/5/12

ETF timing



More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.


Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/4/12

Observations

I really enjoy talking to my subscribers. They offer great insights and their questions lead to very interesting discussions.

The tone of recent calls has gradually changed as the market moved higher.
Apprehension about the market outlook seems to become obvious. How can we best take advantage of the rise? I would like to address this issue because it is an important one.

The markets have always been uncertain. The markets have declined sharply, to rebound with even more virulence. The non-professional cannot withstand this what-seems-to-be volatility. The palms start sweating. Bad decisions are made at this precise time.

We lost great clients because of it. The reason is that emotions overcome rationality. They made the decision at the wrong time! At the precise time the market bottomed.

Why? Because the client tries to time the market and then tries to time the money manager.

The professional money manager has the experience to withstand what is happening and what seems volatility to the casual observer. Emotions amplify volatility.

The main issue is that professionals have an investment process. This is the reason they can control their emotions. Hulbert showed that money managers have their own style. They will not change it over the long term, and their performance is consistent over many years because it reflects a proven investment process.

Our investment process is geared to managing risk. This is our style. Our Picks rose 7% when the market declined 23.4% in 2002. My book Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets shows my approach.

Our advice is that you should not try to time or outguess money managers. They will change strategies when they need to be changed. Trust their investment style and decision making capabilities especially if they have a proven record to withstand difficult times.

(This Observations appeared in the 6/16/03 issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio).

More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

3/3/12

Thought of the day

Plato invented the concept of Utopia, of Ideal Forms, of ideal government.

Since then people have always been concerned about concocting the ideal system, a system that cannot exist. That it does not exist.

Look at Europe. It is causing unbelievable pain to its citizens. Yet politicians are not convinced that the idea is total nonsense. Dangerous.

They respond: because it is still not perfect. We still need to do this and that and then some more.

What happened to looking at the individual. His/her rights to live in peace. Left alone. Let them express an honest opinion about what is going on. Why people are treated as if they do not matter?

3/1/12

Revisiting seasonality

Seasonality does not work exactly, but it rhymes from one year to the next. Probably because market prices are not "seasonally adjusted" by the governemnt.

Bond yields: up from December to May.
Equities: up from November to May.
Commodities: up from December to May.

As discussed also in this video on 1/31/12. It suggests an interesting strategy.



More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.