The Chicago Fed: economy is growing slowly

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to –0.42 in March from –0.18 in February.

Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from February, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in March.

We have been documenting for some time the economy was slowing down and growing slowly.

Now the Chicago Fed confirms our assessment. This is the main reason commodities and oil are weak and yields are not rising.

This environment is not conducive to strong profit growth - and profits are the lifeblood of equities.

 

More details in The Peter Dag Portfolio on www.peterdag.com

 

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio

Since 1977

Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

No. 1 bond timer in the past 12 months. 

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