Is a recession around the corner?


Is a recession in the cards? I have shown you in the previous posts the economy was weak and weakening. Things have not changed much.

The above chart shows the growth of capital good excluding aircrafts (blue line) and the change in backlogs (red line) - the lifeblood of any company.

Orders are slowing down quite sharply and have actually declined -4.0% y/y.

The point is the economy is weak and slowing down sharply. If these trends continue business will be in trouble.

This is bad news for profits, which have been declining. I discussed this possibility in previous posts.

The business cycle is alive an well in spite of the efforts to abolish it made by our leaders.

More details in The Peter Dag Portfolio on www.peterdag.com
George Dagnino, PhD
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
No. 1 bond timer in the past 12 months. 

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.
STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES. Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses. 

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