9/29/13

IMF expects slow growth in Asia.

(Click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

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Europe has still plenty of problems

"Italy’s financial system has so far managed to overcome the financial crisis, and increase domestic deposits and raise additional capital under very difficult circumstances without significant state support. But a weak economy and the link between Italian banks and government finances are a strain on banks." (Source: IMF)

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

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9/28/13

Do they know the unintended consequences?

"We still have a substantial position in cash. Why? Stockman or Druckenmiller explained it in detail. The main reason is we are uncomfortable with the idea people at the Fed - who never had any responsibility in their life in making business decisions and earning money by being exposed to changing market conditions - can make things right by moving a few “dials”.

They destroyed the pricing mechanism and diverted wealth to those who know how to take advantage of these enormous market distortions. They penalized the masses which are at a loss on how to earn a meager return for their savings.

The latest data show the same frustrating picture. There is no hint of an economic boom in the near future. Employment barely grows enough to keep the unemployment rate unchanged. Retail sales rose a lukewarm 0.2%. Consumer confidence retrenched but the trend is up. This optimism is behind the great performance of the auto sector. The purchasing managers' attitude reflects improving manufacturing and, above all, service sectors. Business sales keep growing above the growth of inventories, forcing business to become more aggressive producers. It is no coincidence industrial output jumped a healthy 0.4% last month. Productivity data were revised, but growth is 0.3%. It points to continued sluggish growth. (From my The Peter Dag Portfolioof 22-Sep-13)

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

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Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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9/21/13

The central bank and your investments: Tools of monetary policy

The Fed obviously cannot directly control inflation, or the growth of the economy, or employment, or trends in the stock market. What they can do is directly affect it by changing the growth of the money supply or by changing the levels of real short-term interest rates. The Fed affects these two important variables mainly through open market operations consisting of buying and selling of government securities by the Federal Reserve, and the discount rate. Both of these methods work through the market of bank reserves known as the Federal Funds Market.

The third tool of monetary policy is changes in reserve requirement of the banks. Banks and other depository institutions are legally required to hold a specific amount of fund reserves. These funds, which can be used to meet unexpected out-flows, are called reserves and banks keep them as cash in their vaults or as deposits with the Fed. There has to be a fixed ratio between the funds loaned by the banks and reserves held by the banks. The Fed has an impact on interest rates and money supply by changing the reserves required to be held by the banks. By increasing the reserve requirements, the Federal Reserve is telling the banks to lend less, and of course as the banks lend less, the money supply slows down and interest rates rise in the near term. If instead the Federal Reserve tells banks that they can decrease the reserve requirements, the banks can lend more money, therefore there is more liquidity in the system, and the money supply accelerates as people borrow more money. Because of the increased amount of money, interest rates tend to decline in the near term. At reporting time, banks need to show to the Federal Reserve that they have the appropriate level of reserves. In order to meet this need, banks will have to borrow for very short periods of time, sometimes just a few hours, from banks that have plenty of reserves. The rate that is charged when banks lend reserves to each other is called the Fed funds rate. This is an important rate because corporations have to borrow for very short periods of time to maintain the required balance in their bank accounts and the interest rate charged is closely related to the Fed funds rate.

A way of controlling the money supply and interest rates is through open market operations. This is the major tool the Fed uses to affect the supply of reserves in the banking system. The Fed achieves its objective by buying and selling government securities on the open market. These operations are conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Suppose the Fed wants the funds rate to fall in the near term. To do this it buys government securities from a bank. Government obligations are called bills if their maturity is less than a year; they are called notes if their maturity is less than ten years; and they are called bonds if their maturity is greater than ten years. The Fed then pays the bank for the securities it purchased thus increasing bank's reserves. As a result the bank has more reserves than it is required to hold. The bank can now increase its lending activity to consumers, investors and businessmen. This increase in liquidity is what makes the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates fall in the near term and the money supply accelerates. The federal funds rate is the interest rate charged on reserves traded among commercial banks for overnight use in amounts of $1 million or more.

When the Fed wants the Fed funds rate to rise, it reverses the process - that is, it sells government securities. The Fed receives payment in reserves from banks and this payment lowers the supply of reserves in the banking system. Since there is now less money to lend, interest rates rise and the money supply starts slowing down.

A third way of controlling interest rates and money supply is through the discount rate. Banks can borrow reserves between themselves, and can also borrow reserves from the Federal Reserve banks at their discount windows. The interest rate they must pay on this borrowing is called the discount rate. Discount window borrowing tends to be small because the Fed discourages such borrowing except to meet occasional short-term reserve deficiencies. The discount rate plays a role in monetary policy because traditionally, changes in this rate have an announcement effect, that is they sometimes signal to markets a significant change in monetary policy. A higher discount rate can be used to indicate a more restrictive policy to the banks, while a lower rate may signal a more expansionary policy. This is a signal to the banks that the Federal Reserve is discouraging borrowing and lending through the discount window. Therefore, banks have to become more cautious and careful on how they manage their reserves.

The times characterized by rising short-term interest rates and discount rates are very critical for the banking system and the stock market. A very negative configuration of interest rates for the stock market is rising Treasury bills rate and rising discount rate. During these times, it is not unusual to see the Treasury Bills rate well above the discount rate. This is a clear indication of an aggressive tightening of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, attempting to slow down the economy and keep inflationary forces under control. An example of such periods can be seen from 1987 to the end of 1988, throughout 1994, and beginning in 1999. All these periods have signaled a high-risk area for the stock market and they have determined conditions that dictated extreme caution for investors. Sector and stock selectivity is very crucial during these times because the bond market tends to perform very poorly during such times, and therefore, does not offer a safe alternative to stocks.

Because the discount rate establishes the cost to members of reserves borrowed from Reserve banks, it plays a significant role in the decision a bank makes about whether to borrow at the Federal Reserve discount window. For example, if the rate on short-term Treasury bills is high in relation to the discount rate, the member bank may prefer to borrow from the Federal Reserve rather than sell Treasury bills in its portfolios. Similarly, if the rate charged for reserves obtained through the federal reserve funds market is high, a bank has an incentive to use the discount window.

If monetary policy is tightening it is understood that the Federal Reserve is using open market operations, reserve requirements, or the discount rate to slow down the growth of the money supply by letting short-term interest rates rise by following market forces. When instead the Federal Reserve eases it is understood that the Fed is using open market operations, reserve requirements or the discount rate in order to favor an acceleration of the money supply and lower short-term interest rates.

(From Chapter 6 of my book Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets. Published also in Mandarin and on sale in China. The book is available at Amazon.com).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

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9/19/13

How can you trust what they say?

"Since the U.S. Federal Reserve first began to release economic projections three years ago, it has consistently downgraded its outlook. In the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed further lowered its projections for GDP growth in 2013 to an average of 2.15 percent, compared with an average of 4.15 percent from its initial projections in January 2011." (Source: Guggenheim) (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

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PLEASE, LISTEN TO DRUCKENMILLER STARTING AT MINUTE 8:03.

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
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9/18/13

Observations

When I started in this business I was immediately intrigued by the concept of interest rates. I read anything I could find on the subject and since then I have been totally fascinated by their behavior.

One of my major conclusions, as naïve as it may sound, is that interest rates represent the price of money. As soon as you accept this idea, you have to believe money is a commodity. As such it is driven by the markets. Forget about the Fed and what the press writes about the subject. More details in the following pages.

The next step for me was to check this proposition. If money is a commodity, I thought, its price should be closely related to the price of other commodities. The graphs I prepared told me, without any doubt, my idea was correct.

All the major cyclical turning points of commodities and short-term interest rates coincide in an amazing way. This finding made me conclude the price of money and commodities is driven by the same forces. Certainly not the Fed. How could that be? Can the Fed control short-term interest rates and commodities?

I was therefore surprised when a recent column in the Financial Times discussed a paper by two professors from the University of Pennsylvania and Yale suggesting, among other things, commodities offer a good way to hedge the volatility of the market. You know I have constantly reminded you that rising short-term interest rates should be used as a measure of risk for equities. The higher they go, the higher the risk.

Because of the link between short-term interest rates and commodities, you can also say: the higher commodities go, the higher is the risk for the overall market.

Both markets, the market for money and the market for commodities, are driven by the growth of the economy. They might be temporarily affected by the Fed, thus creating new investment opportunities.

A strong economy is invariably followed by higher commodities and higher short-term interest rates. This is the time to increase your investments in commodity sensitive stocks. Shift to interest rate sensitive stocks when commodities and short-term interest rates decline.

(This Observations appeared in the 10-09-2006 issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio ).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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Stocks and interest rates

Major market tops have always been preceded by rising short-term interest rates (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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9/16/13

The purchasing managers are optimistic

The latest report of the purchasing managers shows the economy is improving (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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9/15/13

Stock futures are soaring. Why? This is the reason.

Asian stocks rose after Lawrence Summers withdrew from consideration to be the next Federal Reserve chairman, paving the way for Janet Yellen, who some investors say may favor a slower reduction in U.S. stimulus.

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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Consumers are buying cars...aggressively.

Auto sales are strong. Good for the economy (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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The purchasing managers are bullish on the economy.

In spite of the doom-and gloom views the economy seems to be doing better (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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9/14/13

Commodities

Commodities (gold, metals, energy, foodstuffs) are going nowhere since the economy started slowing down in 2011 (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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ISM index and employment

Employment cannot grow faster without a more vibrant manufacturing sector (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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Employment and retail sales

Manufacturing employment is not growing. Growth of retail sales close to 5%. Steady slow growth seems to be the message. Just hanging in there (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

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9/7/13

Unemployment claims and interest rates

Declining unemployment claims (blue line) => strong economy => rising short-term interest rates (red line) (click on the chart to enlarge it).
Rising unemployment claims => weak economy => lower short-term interest rates.

The Fed has destroyed this market relationship since 2009. But the markets always win. A much stronger economy will be followed by rising short-term interest rates.

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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WHAT GUIDES MONETARY POLICY?

The main function of the Federal Reserve is to control the growth of money and credit. Monetary policy is the set of actions that lead to the expansion of money and credit in such a way as to produce a stable growing economy at reasonable stable prices. What this means is that the objective of the Fed is to achieve growth in the money supply to create an environment characterized by low inflation, usually expected to be below 2% with as little volatility as possible in the business cycle. Historical evidence suggests that inflation below 2% is close to price stability and is usually accompanied by stable economic growth not showing, for instance, the type of instability and volatility of the 1970s. The risk of following a low inflation policy is that it may lead to deflation under some conditions. Since deflation is the outright decline in consumer prices, it would create economic conditions that would not be beneficial for the country. Establishing an inflation target of 2%, therefore, creates a safety cushion in case of unexpected events.

The issue from the Federal Reserve standpoint is to determine the information needed to guide monetary policy to meet its ultimate objective. There has been a continuing debate about this for a number of years both inside and outside the Federal Reserve. Some have advocated that interest rates are the principal guide for monetary policy, in the belief that an interest rates guidelines can be related more dependably to current and prospective expenditures by key sectors of the economy and therefore to the ultimate economic objectives of full employment, reasonable price stability and international competitiveness.

However, others have advocated that growth in one or more measures of the money supply should be the main focus of the Federal Reserve. Since they believe that the control of the money stock will more surely and predictably lead to the overall economic effects that are desired, the focus of the Fed should be the money supply. Still others have taken an eclectic position. They believe that no one financial variable can or should be taken as a unique guide for monetary policy in view of the complexity of the economy, the wide variety of financial influences on spending, and the changing attitudes of businessmen, investors, and consumers toward spending and liquidity.

Clearly the issues are serious, broad, and very difficult to tackle. It is important to recognize what the issues of concern are for the Federal Reserve system and what their response to these issues is. We will then see how investors will assess the action of the Fed, assess their own issues and concerns and then derive a proper investment strategy.

Another important issue the Fed has to consider is the monetary problems that develop around the world, and their impact on the U.S. economy. Judgments have to be made continuously on what should be done and what kind of monetary policy should be followed. Whatever processes the FOMC goes through to reach a consensus and the resulting action taken by the FOMC, there are two main results of monetary policy. One is the growth in the money supply and the second is the trend and level of real short-term interest rates.

Let's talk about the money supply and how it is defined. There are several measures of money supply. It is important to recognize the difference between them. From an investor's viewpoint, they provide the same information. But sometimes some measures are better than others, so it is always important to understand these definitions. There are times when because of technological innovation or changes in the structure of the banking system, some measures of money supply become distorted. For this reason, it is always appropriate to follow many measures and recognize that some may be distorted because of temporary factors. Money supply data are available from the Fed every week through the Internet and also the historical data are also available on the websites of the Fed or the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

There are three measures of money supply. The first one is called M1 and consists of currency, travelers' checks of non-bank issuers, and demand deposits at all commercial banks. The second measure of money supply (M2) is M1 plus savings deposits including money market savings accounts, small denomination time deposits and balances in retail money market funds. The third measure of money supply is M3, which consists of M2 plus large denomination time deposits in the amount of $100,000 or more, balances in institutional money funds, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents in foreign banks.

Money supply is a measure of how much money is in the economy - M1 is a narrow definition of the money supply, M2 is a broader definition of the money supply, and M3 is an even broader definition of the money supply. There is a fourth definition, which is called MZM - that is, money with zero maturity (Fig. 6-2).

An increase in the growth of the MZM is followed by a stronger economy, which is followed by rising short-term interest rates. The rise in short-term interest rates reduces the demand for money (negative feedback), inducing a decline in the growth of the MZM, of the economy and eventually causing short-term interest rates to decline. Lower short-term interest rates cause an increase (positive feedback) in the demand for money and rising growth in the money supply MZM.

It is defined as M2 plus institutional money funds, minus total small denomination time deposits. This measure of money supply is available from the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which computes it every week. There are many assets closely related to cash and the public can readily switch between cash and these other liquid assets. Much of the time, switches are in response to changing interest rate differentials between these assets. At other times though, the switches may reflect a growing awareness of a way to increase income or they may simply reflect shifting attitudes of the public.

All these factors impact in different ways the various measures of money supply. From an investor viewpoint, following the money supply is crucial because the growth of the money supply is a very important leading indicator of the economy. For instance, the growth of the money supply bottomed in 1984 and increased sharply in 1985 and 1986. The bottom in the growth of the money supply was followed in 1986 by a strong pick-up in the growth of industrial production. In 1992 the growth of the money supply peaked and declined sharply until 1995. The growth in industrial production peaked two years afterwards in late 1994 and early 1995 and declined for a year. The growth in the money supply is a very important leading indicator of the economy and predicts turning points in the economy both at troughs and at peaks with a lead of more than one year. The typical measure that is used is the rate of change in the money supply over twelve months.

Strong growth in the money supply suggests there is a lot of liquidity being injected into the economy and there is a lot of credit available to business, investors and consumers. As this liquidity moves through the economy, more and more people take advantage of this liquidity. Eventually they will spend it, the economy strengthens and economic growth increases. However, when the money supply starts to slow down, credit is made available at a lesser pace to business investors and consumers. Therefore, the economy gradually slows down as less money is available and less money is spent. Historical data show that financial cycles, defined as the fluctuation in the growth of the money supply, have a length of approximately five years from trough to trough. Of course, one should expect that as liquidity increases the stock market performs well and as liquidity decreases, that is the rate of growth of the money supply declines, there is less reason for stock prices to rise.

(From Chapter 6 of my book Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets. Published also in Mandarin and on sale in China. The book is available at Amazon.com).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
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AUTO SALES

Auto sales remain strong (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.

9/5/13

Spot the fastest growing states.

Looking for a job? Move to the fastest growing states (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.

Orders declined sharply.

The decline in orders point to a weaker economy (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.

European stock markets

Some European stock markets have soared (source: FT) (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

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9/4/13

The European economy is improving.

As predicted by our leading indicators, the European economy is improving (Source: FT) (Click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.

Lumber and the housing market

Lumber peaked in March. Housing starts peaked in May. Housing prices are now growing more slowly according to the Case/Shiller survey (click on the chart to enlarge it).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.

9/3/13

Consumer confidence sags due to the uncertainty created by the Syrian crisis.

Bad news for the economy. The consumer is concerned about what is going on in Washington.

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS. >

Manufacturing expands in August.

The latest data from the ISM groups show the manufacturing sector is quite strong, as we expected in the past issues of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.

9/2/13

STOCK MARKET LONG-TERM GROWTH

The long-term growth of the market is close to 6.4% (click on the chart to enlarge it). An important question you should ask yourself: will you live a productive life long enough to enjoy the enticing long-term returns?

What happens if you live a period like the 1970s or the 2000s?

The point? Long-term returns are a vision, not a reality.

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.

STOCK MARKET SEASONALITY

An unfavorable period is ahead of us.

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.

LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS

The leading indicators of the Conference Board point to continued economic growth.

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.
Receive your user id to access 4 FREE issues – and all the previous ones - of The Peter Dag Portfolio. Email your request to info@peterdag.com. New subscribers, please.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @GEORGEDAGNINO FOR MY LATEST VIEWS.