9/10/16

The real choices in this election


We will have to vote for one of the choices the two major candidates are proposing.

Let me explain. To do so I have to describe the above graph.

The chart shows the growth in consumer expenditures (red line) and that of investments in machinery, equipment and construction (blue line). This is what the candidates are talking about. 

The press, however, is too busy reporting and magnifying gossip issues. It fails to explain the real substance of the policies proposed by the two candidates.

Mrs. Clinton is suggesting we need to stimulate consumption through changes in taxes and public investments. 

The growth of the economy will produce the resources to help and protect the less fortunate of us. 

The outcome will also be an increase in investments to produce the goods demanded by the consumers.

Mr. Trump is instead saying that without a substantial increase in investments (blue line) the economy will not create the wealth we need to buy goods and services (red line).

The past behavior of the two measures suggests investments turn ahead of consumption and consumption grows much faster following a visible increase in investments. 

In other words, investments create their own demand.

Quite frankly I tend, as investment strategist and portfolio manager, to rely on the latter conclusion.

The current position of the two gauges suggests the economy is in, or is close to, a recession. Without decisive programs to encourage business to invest, we are likely to experience very slow growth in the coming year.

This conclusion has an important strategic influence on which asset classes an investor should use in his/her portfolio.


Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.



8/14/16

We have a big problem......


The  6-month Libor (London Inter-bank Rate) is soaring (see above chart - click on the chart to enlarge it). 

This short-term interest rate is rising sharply because there are some major market distortions. This is not what you see when the financial markets have no problems.


Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.




We have a big problem......


The  6-month Libor (London Inter-bank Rate) is soaring see above chart - click chart to enlarge it). 

This short-term interest rate is rising sharply because there are some major market distortions. This is not what you see when the financial markets have no problems.


Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.




We have a big problem......


The  6-month Libor (London Inter-bank Rate) is soaring see above chart). 

This short-term interest rate is rising sharply because there are some major market distortions. This is not what you see when the financial markets have no problems.

Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.




8/4/16

Is this a sign of strength? You must be kidding.


Federal tax receipts are slowing down quite sharply. This is a serious sign of worrisome economic weakness.

And they are playing games as Rome is burning!


It should come as no surprise to my readers that commodities and yields are declining while earnings remain disappointing. 


Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.






8/1/16

This is not what happens in a booming economy.


Capital investments (blue line) remain weak. It is quite difficult to conceive strong output from manufacturing (red line) without more strength in orders for capital goods. 

There is no doubt this chart does not reflect a booming economy as some politicians would like us to believe.  

Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.



This is not what happens in a booming economy.


Capital investments (blue line) remain weak. It is quite difficult to conceive strong output from manufacturing (red line) without more strength in orders for capital goods. 

There is no doubt this chart does not reflect a booming economy as some politicians would like us to believe.  

Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.



Bad news for the market


For some time I have been saying the economy is weak and will remain weak. Implications?

1. Weak commodities
2. Weak oil prices
3. Lower bond yields
4. Poor earnings growth.

The above chart shows the relationship between oil and stocks (Source: ZeroHedge). Bad news for stocks, considering crude oil is likely to keep heading lower because of weak economic conditions and adverse seasonality.


Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.





Bad news for the market


For some time I have been saying the economy is weak and will remain weak. Implications?

1. Weak commodities
2. Weak oil prices
3. Lower bond yields
4. Poor earnings growth.

The above chart shows the relationship between oil and stocks (Source: ZeroHedge). Bad news for stocks, considering crude oil is likely to keep heading lower because of weak economic conditions and adverse seasonality.


Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.





Bad news for thee market


For some time I have been saying the economy is weak and will remain weak. Implications?

1. Weak commodities
2. Weak oil prices
3. Lower bond yields
4. Poor earnings growth.

The above chart shows the relationship between oil and stocks (Source: ZeroHedge). Bad news for stocks, considering crude oil is likely to keep heading lower because of weak economic conditions and adverse seasonality.

Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.