Is a recession around the corner?

Retail sales rose 0.9% but the growth rate is plunging! (See chart. Click on the chart to enlarge it).
Retail sales rose only 1.3% y/y. There is no question about it. The US economy is decelerating in a worrisome way according to the latest data.
The Fed is in a corner. Forcing rates to rise would create serious damage to whatever sign of life there is in the business cycle.
This trend, and the others discussed in previous posts, does not bode well for corporate profitability.
Of course, time will tell.

More details in The Peter Dag Portfolio on www.peterdag.com

George Dagnino, PhD
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
No. 1 bond timer in the past 12 months. 

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