4/30/16

A bear market indicator?


This is an important indicator we follow closely in our The Peter Dag Portfolio. It helps us to decide our investment strategy and which asset classes we should include in our model portfolios. 

This gauge tells us when to start buying aggressively or be defensive.

Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Sell in May and go away.


A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to $838,486 for November-April in 65 years compared to $221 loss for May-October. (Source: Investing.com).

Investment implications will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

4/28/16

The business cycle drives the markets.


My work has always been anchored on the effect of the forces unleashed by the business cycle. I realize the press, the actions of the Fed and the administration seem to give the impression they change the trend of the market. I do not think so. They create noise and not much else. 
The markets respond to fundamentals. Equities are not growing because the economy is not growing. They fluctuate around an average pace, which reflects the speed of the economy.  
Unfortunately the economy is still in a phase of declining growth. 
The purchasing managers’ report shows growth in manufacturing and services is almost nonexistent.  
Business sales continue to decline as if we were in a recession. Inventories are expanding as sales are contracting.  This is a very important relationship totally immune to external jawboning. 
The reason is that it involves business decisions. When sales decline while inventories rise, business reacts as it should in order to cut costs. It reduces production until inventories are in line with sales. This is exactly what is happening.
 Production keeps sagging. Retail sales have also stalled. They are at the same level as in July 2015. 
The model of the Atlanta Fed reflects the weakness of these data (see above graph) and is saying GDP was growing at a dismal 0.3% (annualized rate) in Q1. This is just a rounding error in the big scheme of things.

Bottom line – The economy stalled in Q1 as we anticipated. This weakness is likely to carry on in Q2. It will continue to have a negative impact on the price of commodities (including oil), yields, earnings and ultimately on the main trend of the equity market.  
(This analysis appeared in the issue of 4/24/2016 of The Peter Dag Portfolio)
Investment implications will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

4/15/16

Is this what happens in a recession?



The above graph shows continued weakness in industrial production (shaded areas indicate recessions). 

Reasons for the weakness in production? Please check the previous posts. I have been explaining - with facts - why the economy had to slow down due to weakness in industrial production.

What happens next to equities, commodities and yields has repeated itself over and over again. The business cycle is alive and well!

Investment implications will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

4/11/16

The markets have been tightening



The markets have been tightening for the Fed.

The yield curve has been flattening since mid March. Not coincidentally the markets have been more volatile. (Click on the chart to enlarge it).

Can the economy and the markets survive a flattening yield curve?

Investment implications will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.


Is this the picture of a bear market?


Investment implications will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

4/9/16

Heading for a recession

The good news no strategist can refute is that income and spending are growing at a healthy pace: about 4%. This is very good news. It justifies the elevated consumer optimism for the economy, according to the University of Michigan. It is also driven by employment expanding at a 1.99% y/y pace. 
Add to this rosy picture housing prices appreciating at a strong pace – up 5.8% y/y. These are incredibly positive facts. The problem I have is that everything else is gradually collapsing. 
Corporate profitability is sinking. Cutting costs and recessions are the likely outcome. Inventories out of line with sales, which are declining, will force business to keep cutting production. Auto sales, as we predicted, have peaked. This sector will be a major headwind for the economy. 
Housing is beginning to follow the sluggish performance of autos. Productivity growth is almost zero percent. Capital investments, needed to expand capacity and improve productivity, are sinking. 
The sobering implication of this little understood measure is that all the increase in people employed is not helping to improve the wealth of the nation (increase the economic pie). 
All the employed people are just creating enough goods and services needed to survive. No more, no less. If we do not produce more efficiently through education and improved investments, we are just running still. 
It is no coincidence the model of the Atlanta Fed is saying the economy has hardly been expanding: +0.1% in Q1 (see above chart). 
The expected decline in profits in Q1 and Q2 is another somber reminder we are facing a scary economic environment. 
An environment where the least fortunate will voice their discontent and demand more from a society increasingly more confused by the lack of focus of their leaders in solving their economic and financial problems. 
The widely heralded increase in minimum wage is just a momentary panacea intended to calm the populace and give the impression something substantive is being done to improve their livelihood. But it is just a palliative.
The business cycle is alive and well.


Investment implications will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.
George Dagnino, PhD

Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio

Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

4/7/16

Sobering thoughts


The data continue to reflect a weak economy with GDP growth the size of a rounding error. Zero growth in productivity and sinking profitability point to a dicey environment for stocks and commodities. But good news for bonds. 

Growth in employment is just enough to produce the bare needs of those employed. No wealth is added to the national pie, however, due to the dismal productivity figures.  

The business cycle is alive and well.

Details will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, 
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

4/6/16

All bond yields move in the same direction


All bond yields move in the same direction. And they all follow the trend of the yields on Treasury bonds.

In the above chart the 10-year Treasury bond yields (green), AAA bond yields (blue) and BAA bond yields (red) move with perfect synchronicity.

Right now they are heading down in response to bad news on the economic front. The business cycle is alive and well.

Details will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, 
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.


4/3/16

This gauge points to a major bear market and a recession


The indicator shown in the above chart (red line) leads a major bear market in equities (blue line) and a recession by several quarters.

Details will be discussed in depth in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, 
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.