2/28/11

Interesting patterns

The market is weakening as of this writing (12:59pm).

Commodities are weak.
JNK is firm.
LQD is up.

This is what one should expect. A leading indicator declining and lagging indicators behaving the way they do today.

Are commodities and bonds trying to tell us something about the economy? It is too early to say. But the pattern is intriguing.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

2/27/11

Observations

A subscriber and long time business acquaintance, WH for short, called me a few days ago with a very interesting question. “George, we are a large buyer of natural gas. What is your outlook for this commodity?” he asked.

What a great question! It reminded me of the time when I was teaching Economics for Management. I have always thought that most commodity prices move in the same direction, at the same time. Business cycle forces are the main drivers. Special factors, such as weather, play only a minor role.

My students, with a respectful smile, used to tell me that this was one of my “sweeping generalities”. There was an untold and subtle sense of respect in their words. Their smile was an acknowledgment that they were being challenged by the idea. But they did not accept it, yet.

These thoughts were crossing my mind as I was trying to answer WH’s question on the phone. I asked him for some information on the price patterns of natural gas. His words confirmed what I was thinking. Natural gas began to rise in 1999 and peaked toward the end of 2000 like most other “commodities” such as the price of the commodity money (short-term interest rates), crude oil, the CRB futures index, and copper.

The economy began to slow down quite sharply in mid 2000. After the typical 6 month lag, by the end of the same year, all the lagging indicators started to decline in late 2000 and early 2001 (including natural gas). Their trend is still down.

When will they rise again? These commodities will rise when the economy begins to expand rapidly, as it did in late 1998 and early 1999. Until this configuration becomes a reality -- which I do not expect to be the case in the coming months -- all commodities will remain weak. I do not believe they can move higher in any meaningful way, including natural gas, until business activity booms again. And this is not in the cards any time soon.

I hope WH is satisfied with my answer. It is the best I could do. Good luck, WH, and keep in touch!

(This Observations appeared in the 6/11/01 of  The Peter Dag Portolio)

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

2/26/11

The last shoe to drop?

Their states on the brink of financial catastrophe, governors pleaded Saturday for the divided federal government to avoid doing anything that would hamper the tenuous economic recovery back home.

Their message to Washington: prevent a government shutdown, abstain from spending cuts that dramatically will affect states and end even preliminary discussions about allowing states to declare bankruptcy. (CNBC News)

The country is running out of money. The country is running out of people who can pay the bills. Everybody wants something. The bottom line is that we over-promised and we did not generate to wealth to pay the bill.

We all agree we have to make sacrifices. But nobody wants to be the first one.

The tragedy is that the market will force the politicians to do the unpleasant things they are trying to avoid.

Uncle Ben, meanwhile, will keep printing money.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Reminder

Greece's debts are rising rapidly despite radical austerity measures. Now a group of leading European economists has warned that creditors might have to write off more than 30 percent of their loans. Greece might even have to reintroduce the drachma to overcome its debt crisis, they argue.

The European Economic Advisory Group (EEAG), a group of leading European economists, has warned that Greece may need another bailout by 2013 at the latest.

The European crisis is far from over.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

2/25/11

Incredible!

Click here to see what the problem really is. I know for a fact that a highly paid corporate employee receives a pension one half that of a teacher. Furthermore, thanks to Obamacare, his/her healthcare premium increased 30% this year.

Incredible!

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

Technical patterns

Are the markets trying to tell us something?

JNK and LQD were very strong. This happens when the economy slows down and inflation remains under control.

If JNK and LQD are strong in a strong market, what will they do if the market declines?

My guess is that they will go up. Time will tell.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

About revolutions

It has been more than a month since Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia's president, was forced to leave office, but many people say they are yet to see the benefits of their revolution.

Many citizens, particularly in smaller towns, say they feel disconnected from Tunis, and that the root causes of the uprising - spiralling unemployment and widespread poverty - remain unaddressed. Al Jazeera's Nazanine Moshiri reports from Gafsa, one such region of Tunisia.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. I know, it is too early to say. But I still keep thinking about the outcome of the revolutions of the past. The futility of hope, to paraphrase a famous saying.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/24/11

Technical patterns.

I watch yields closely. I know, it is not a surprise for you. But they are trying to tell us something.

JNK and LQD are up at 12:51 pm. What is interesting is that both bonds ETFs are strong as the market weakens.

Are they sensing a slowdown? Watch also copper and agriculturals.


George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

About revolutions

The French revolution was an exciting one. It was about democracy. About bringing a new order.

What happened, however, was that after toppling the regime, the various factions started fighting each other. Eventually a new dictator, Napoleon, emerged and put order to the great mess existing in the country.

Another example? The Shah of Iran was followed by the power of the current clerics. When all is said and done, the reports from Iran suggest that things are not much different now.

The Russian revolution toppled the czar, but was followed by Lenin and Stalin.
Are the revolutions in the Middle East going to bring “democracy’ and be different from the teachings of history?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/23/11

Very interesting pattern today

Market sharply lower. LQD down. JNK up.

I think this is a very interesting pattern promising some attractive profits ahead. How? Any suggestions?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

While you were asleep

Commodities very weak, including agriculturals. Copper sinking. Oil and gold holding up. Equity markets down around the globe.

Is this the correction everybody was waiting for? If so, when will it end? Does the weakness in commodities reflect an economic slowdown? Is LQD the right investment in times like these?

These are the kind of issues we deal with in The Peter Dag Portfolio.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/22/11

To my subscribers

Is Libya the catalyst triggering the pause in the market I was predicting in The Peter Dag Portfolio?

Please check my weekly Market Update this Sunday.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

One big issue facing the administration

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The smallest corn inventories in 37 years are a sign farmers around the globe are failing to produce enough grain to meet rising consumption, even as planting expands and food prices surge.

Can the poor people eat ethanol?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

The age of unrest continues

Germany wants stiffer sanctions against nations whose budget deficits top 3 percent of gross domestic product in exchange for cheaper rescue loans.

Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats have taken a beating with their handling of the euro crisis.

 Libya erupted into violence last night after Muammar Qaddafi’s son threatened “rivers of blood” .

“This is much, much worse chaos than we saw in Egypt or Tunisia,” said Daniel Byman, director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University in Washington.s much, much worse chaos than we saw in Egypt or Tunisia,” said Daniel Byman, director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University in Washington.

The Bahraini government is in the process of brutally suppressing the protesters in its own version of Tahrir Square, Pearl Square.

Two Iranian naval ships have entered Egypt's Suez Canal and are heading towards the Mediterranean, a canal official said.

"They entered the canal at 5:45am," the official told Reuters news agency on Tuesday.

There are reports of renewed anti-government protests in Iran, with demonstrators taking to the streets in several cities across the country.

Protesters have apparently thronged Tehran's Vali-Asr and Enghelab squares. Similar demonstrations are being reported in Shiraz and Isfahan.

Al-Qaeda and the Iranian government, have seen their standing sink in proportion to the rise of the pro-democracy movements.

At least eight people have been injured in clashes that broke out in Jordan’s capital between government supporters and opponents at a protest calling for more freedom and lower food prices.

Union leaders urged Wisconsin teachers to return to work at schools that are open on Monday, but large protests were expected to continue at the Capitol against a plan to cut collective bargaining rights and benefits to state workers.

As protests continued here, dozens of “solidarity events” in support of Wisconsin union members were being planned across the country over the next several days, including rallies on Monday in Las Vegas; Helena, Mont.; Carson City, Nev.; and Raleigh, N.C.

Interesting news from several reports. Why now? It seems a global synchronized unrest. It is an impressive situation, to say the least. How will the USA react if the turmoil reaches Saudi Arabia?

As commodities soar!


George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/21/11

Thought of the day

Today commodities are soaring. I mean, soaring.

If we want to make money we have to "listen" to the Fed. How are they going to get out of this one?

Just in case you did not realize it. We are living through the Uncle Ben bubble. This follows the Maestro's tech/housing bubbles.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

Soros says....

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- George Soros, a billionaire hedge- fund manager who has donated millions to Democrats, said Democratic President Barack Obama “has lost control of the agenda” on the U.S. economy, leaving it “now in the hands of the Republican Party.”

Others say Obama never had control of any agenda. Pelosi and Congress had.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

The age of unrest continues

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Oil-price swings have doubled this year as unrest spreads through the Middle East, source of one- third of global crude supply, hampering producer and consumer efforts to stabilize the world’s biggest commodity market.

Oil and gold soaring. The smart people stay ahead of the game. The poor people feel the pressure because of rising commodity prices. Should we thank for all this the easy money of the global bankers? The poor stewardship of our leaders? Too much bueaucracy?

The markets always win. They always correct errors made in the past. By everybody. Anywhere.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/20/11

Very interesting

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party lost control of Hamburg, Germany’s richest state, in the first of seven state votes this year that threaten to limit her scope to respond to Europe’s debt crisis, television projections show.

How will the markets react? The Germans clearly do not want to bail out the countries in financial trouble.

Time will tell.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

Question

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Persian Gulf shares slumped, sending Dubai’s benchmark stock index down the most this month, on concern political unrest in the region may spread.

Arab governments are cracking down on pro-democracy activists as uprisings that toppled leaders in Tunisia and Egypt spread to Libya, Algeria, Yemen and Bahrain. Prince Talal Bin Abdul Aziz, a member of Saudi Arabia’s royal family, warned on Feb. 17 that the kingdom may see protests unless King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz introduces reforms, according to BBC Arabic TV.

This is what Israel probably feared. And I am sure she is prepared to handle it. What will the USA do if Iran puts its warships in front of, say, Libya, or Egypt, or, yes, Israel? 

No surprise oil stocks and gold are strengthening again.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/19/11

The age of unrest #2

This picture was not taken in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, or Bahrain.

This picture was taken in the USA. In Wisconsin.

The spreading of unrest is absolutely amazing. The population of the world has reached a unique and synchronized point of frustration. People are frustrated because what they believed was their right was actually unrealistically given by their governments. And the markets are now saying: enough!

People feel cheated because they are finding out that they received benefits that could not be justified by the productivity of the country or the state. Why should taxpayers pay for oversized pensions? Why not having pensions in the public sector funded by those who will eventually receive the benefits?

The age of unrest is about survival 

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/18/11

The age of unrest

The teacher’s union is going on strike in Milwaukee and elsewhere. They ought to be fired. Think Reagan PATCO in 1981. Think Calvin Coolidge police strike in 1919.

Governor Walker is facing a $3.6 billion budget deficit, and he wants state workers to pay one-half of their pension costs and 12.6 percent of their health benefits. Currently, most state employees pay nothing for their pensions and virtually nothing for their health insurance. That’s an outrage.

The age of unrest is about survival. From Dublin to Cairo.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

Is it going to happen again?

In 2007-2008 the economy slowed down and then plunged into a recession when the price of gas rose to $3.11.

The price of gas keeps rising thanks to cheap money (click on the chart to enlarge it). Is history going to repeat itself?

This pattern is bad news for commodities and good news for bonds, eventually --if you believe in the business cycle. Time will tell. Something to watch closely.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/17/11

Interesting.

Some of you may already be familiar with the economic law called “the tragedy of the commons,” but for those of you who are not, I shall explain it to you. The tragedy of the commons refers to a dilemma arising from the situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will ultimately deplete a shared limited resource even when it is clear that it is not in anyone’s long-term interest for this to happen. I would argue the tragedy of the commons receives far too little attention as a rational explanation for the cancerous expansion of the State. For what is the State other than people looting each others’ private property in a zero sum game of resource redistribution? The tragedy of the commons gives us a rational basis for the consistent and constant expansion of the coercively funded democratic State and why that expansion always leads to the destruction of society.

It fits my theory of "power groups". For more click here.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

Interesting pattern

The market is slowly improving today.

JNK is up. Good. But LQD is stronger than JNK. Is LQD trying to tells us that the slower growth in the leading indicators is actually worth noting?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

Bearish news?

Producer prices were up 9.6% at annual rate, up 3.6% y/y. Consumer prices are up 1.5% y/y. In other words, prices of materials needed by producer is rising faster than prices charged by producers.

If the input costs for a company are rising more than the prices it gets at final sale, it is  squeezing earnings. Is the market ingoring it?

Investing decisions, in my humble opinion, have to be made on what is happening now. We know one day profits will slow down or decline. We know one day short-term interest rates will rise. We know one day inflation will rise. We know one day the Fed will start tightening.

But this is not what is happenng now.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/16/11

Observations

The education budget. The government is planning to spend more money on education. I do not believe money will improve people’s education.

I love teaching. I like to challenge the minds of young people. I love the sense of accomplishment that comes from knowing that I planted a small seed. I know most of my students will always appreciate what I have done for them. Sometimes in spite of themselves.

I taught at several colleges and universities. The standards of my teaching depended on the policies of the institution and on the feedback of the institution’s administration and of the students. I had to adjust accordingly. But I usually started by stretching the students’ minds. Then I relaxed my standards to meet the requirements.

Every professor knows that money does not dictate his or her level of teaching. For the same amount of money I can have high or low standards in my class. It is the particular market of an institution that dictates my level of teaching. My main job is to mold the minds of the students, to explore with them ways of thinking about the subject being taught.

Why do we continue to throw money at education, falsely believing that technology will solve the problem? Different teaching standards impact the level of thinking. Teaching is not about making statements about absolute truth. What matters is to explore how to logically connect ideas to create new thought processes, to devise new paths of action.

Money is not necessary to achieve these objectives. It takes hard work, high standards, and a commitment on the part of the students and instructor to work together.

There is no alternative to achieving high standards. It takes a lot of work. And sometimes this does not become practical because sports and part-time jobs are a priority that students and parents do not want to change.

Unfortunately it takes time to learn, to practice the mind. As a friend and mentor used to tell me when I was facing a difficulty: George, no one said it was going to be easy. Persistence and determination to learn will improve the education of our students. Not money.

The issues are standards and the willingness of the community to achieve them. We need to convince students and their parents that the achievement of high standards is a personal choice. Government money has nothing to do with it.

(This Observations appeared in the 4-23-2001 issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio)

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/15/11

Do you see the pattern?

Market weak. Commodities weak. JNK weak. LQD strong. This is an important pattern and is not happening by chance. It is important if you use business cycle techniques to develop your investment strategy.


George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/14/11

The age of unrest

(CNN) -- The unrest spreading through North Africa and the Middle East has reached the Persian Gulf nation of Bahrain, where at least three police officers and one demonstrator have been injured in clashes, the state new agency reported Monday.

The poor people of this world are revolting to achieve better living conditions. Can their new leaders really achieve this feat which could not be reached for centuries? 

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

Commodities

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Snowfalls in China’s major wheat- growing regions failed to ease a drought, a government agency said. Wheat prices climbed to the highest level since August 2008 in Chicago and to a record in Zhengzhou.

The global economy is very strong and strengthening. Commodities -- from copper to wheat -- have been rising because of strong demand. The weather does not have anything to do with their fundamental trend. If the economy weakens, even if the weather is horrible, wheat will decline.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/13/11

Thought of the day

There is a lot of emotion about the growth of the global economy and the cost of food. It sounds like prices are growing at an unusually fast pace.

Well, I checked the performance of DBA (ETF: agriculturals) and XLI (ETF: industrial companies). Both asset classes have been growing at the same pace.

My point is that often people get excited by the performance of some sectors while others are doing as well, if not better. I always compare the historical price of what I want to buy with that of SPY and check its volatility and relative performance. Yes, volatility has to get into the equation as well.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/11/11

Observations

Humans and animals. There are many differences between humans and animals. At least, we like to believe there are.

After all, we create great monuments, paintings, buildings reflecting marvelous ingenuity, and exquisite music. Above all, we have creativity, the capability of conceiving and making new things. And if this is not enough, my friends tell me that what makes us really different is that we have a soul. Of course, no one has ever seen my soul, but they tell me I have one, and I have to believe them. My uncle once told me the soul is a poetic invention needed to convince us we are different.

Every time I look at an animal, I never fail to be amazed how much they look like us. They have two eyes, two ears, a digestive system (input, output, and everything in between), a reproductive system, limbs for locomotion, and above all, a brain. Who knows, they may even believe they have a soul that makes them different from us.

But there is more. I was fortunate to have a tall pine tree in front of the bedroom. In two out of three years a couple of blue jays decided that a branch of this pine was just fine to build their nest. And so they did after careful inspection of the surroundings and making sure the spot was protected from intruders.

Every morning, as I changed to go to work, I looked at their activities. First, they built the nest. It was amazing how carefully they chose the material. Strong on the outside of the nest, softer as they moved toward the inside. Eventually the nest had to be approved by the female (does it ring a bell?). So, she went and pressed with her feet and body against the walls of the nest to make it fit her size. It took quite a long time.

One day the female laid the eggs and for a few weeks the male was circling around the nest, very carefully, trying not to be followed. He brought the food to his companion. I was ready to go to work to do exactly the same thing. Eventually the young blue jays were born. The mother was absolutely obsessed with keeping them warm, constantly moving to achieve this purpose. In the meantime the male was going around getting food for the growing family.

One day, the nest became too small for the mother and the two blue jays. It was time to move on. The mother, using her beak, pushed the two young blue jays out of the nest. They had to learn how to survive. Does it sound familiar?

They screamed as they fell from branch to branch. Eventually they hit the ground. The risks were high. A cat could come along. Welcome to the jungle. But eventually they made it. One day I saw four blue jays fly away.

They did in just a few weeks what humans achieve with their families in several years. The blue jays did it at a much faster pace, with less fanfare.

I am amazed how the concepts of life, family, managing its growth, survival, role of male and female, mother and father, are exactly the same—in humans and animals. There are a few nuances, of course, but we like to believe they are important because they make us feel different from “animals”. Really?

(This Observations appeared in the 2/19/2001 issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio)

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

Thought of the day

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- It took 18 days of pressure from Cairo protesters as the U.S. and the European Union called for change to end the 30-year presidency of Hosni Mubarak, who kept peace with Israel, battled Islamic militants and preserved American interests in the Middle East.

The Arab and Egyptian people are rejoicing. They proved their point. But make no mistake about it. The Arab people have been searching for centuries. The end result is that they are the poorest people in the world. They have resorted even to terrorism to make their point.

All their unrest and revolts are signs of frustrations. Nothing has materially changed for centuries. Nothing will material change in the future. They do not have the institutions and schooling to become westernized.

I am not sure they want to. They will continue their restless life based on strict religious codes, searching.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.

2/10/11

My best investment

The US unemployment rate will not return to pre-financial crisis levels for "several years", Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has said.

Education. When I did not know what to do, when I was confused, uncertain -- when I was young, in other words -- I kept studying, studying, studying.

In my life I never had a problem finding a job. teaching, working for large companies, managing money, owning a business, teaching tennis.

I still do. I try to learn and keep abreast of what is happening. It is not because I am smart. But because it is the only way to keep young and to survive.

Now, for instance, I am working on learning how to develop short seminars to post on my website. It is a challenge. But I will do it. Do I need to do it? No. But I will learn something new from smart people. It will give me a way to share my knowledge about investing and management with other people. It will keep my adrenaline moving, if you know what I mean.

Why do I say this? Because without a strong commitment to personal education, people will always find problems in finding a job. Do not sit on your hands. Do something. Act. Study. Learn. You are never too old. You do not need to be "smart" to learn. Try to be the best in what you like. Your passion. As the Taoists say: when in doubt, do something.

Bernanke cannot create jobs by printing money. It is just plainly ludicrous to even think about it!
 

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.