3/5/09

Update from the Fed: bad news (if you believe them)

The battered U.S. economy will continue to weaken over the coming months, with unemployment rising, top Federal Reserve officials said on Wednesday, though they remain confident that forceful policy action will help end the more than year-long recession.

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, said it was hard to "be upbeat about the immediate future."

Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, said indicators show the economy to be on track for a decline in the first quarter roughly equal to the 6.2 percent annual rate of contraction seen in the 2008 fourth quarter.

Fisher, who characterized himself as the most pessimistic of all of his colleagues on the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said he fears the country might suffer two years of recession.

The current recession started in December 2007.

My point. They did not see that we were heading for a severe recession. How can you trust them now that they see the end of it?

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

To find out more about my in depth view of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/. You can review The Peter Dag Portfolio, free of charge of course. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

George Dagnino, PhD

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