There is a big hype about commodities these days. Oil, gold, just about everything. The indicators, however, show the commodity complex has been flat since the end of last year (click on chart to enlarge). I just do not see oil at $100 by May as some smart traders are suggesting.
Well, call me old fashioned, but commodities rise when the economy is strong. Very strong. Usually growing at above the average 2.7% average pace. Is the economy that strong? And please, do not remind me that China exists because the Chinese economy is tanking in a pitiful, painful way like every other country on the globe.
The business cycle has a way of asserting itself and make sense of just about everything. Worldwide.
I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes. To find out more about my in depth view of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/. You can review The Peter Dag Portfolio, free of charge of course. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.
George Dagnino, PhD
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