Commodities and business cycles

Commodities rise when the economy is growing rapidly. They decline when the economy slows down.

Commodities have stabilized since the end of last year (click on graph to enlarge). They may signal the economy is not weakening anymore. Before reaching any conclusions we need to look at the trend of unemployment claims. A decline in unemployment claims would be good news. They are still rising, however.

My point is that we need more data points before becoming bullish on commodities.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

To find out more about my in depth view of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/. You can review The Peter Dag Portfolio, free of charge of course. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

George Dagnino, PhD