Observations

I believe the history of humankind is a random event. People push and shove until they have a system they think can resolve their problems. Only to become disappointed and slowly change again toward a different system. I am dedicating a large part of my time to thinking about this issue.

Are Chinese, Venezuelan, Iranian, or Russian autocracies better than the democratic ones? We think we are the model. But we are also changing as we seem to be moving away from a liberal system.

No system is stable – capitalistic/liberal or autocratic. China, under communist dictatorship, is using capitalistic ideas with the command performance rather than the cumbersome and lengthy democratic process. Some observers say autocracies represent an improved version of capitalism.

Can an autocratic system survive? My answer is no. No system can survive as is. Power groups within a nation will always try to gain control of the wealth of the nation. See for instance trends in Iran.

Power groups will fight until they control other power groups or absorb them. The fewer power groups, the slower the growth of the economy. It is an unquestionable fact. Look at what happens in Iran, Russia, and Europe.

When people become dissatisfied, they force the group in power to change its policies to solve their problems. Italy and Germany accepted dictators in the late 1920s.

In Italy the power groups have consolidated their reach and this is the reason the country has been in shambles for decades. Once a power group is in power, it is not going to relinquish it without a revolution. This is what triggered the French revolution or the USSR debacle.

There is no democratic, liberal, or autocratic system. All the systems are constantly changing. Like birds, we fly trying to find the ideal resting place. What we find is new problems. There is no ideal system. We are randomly searching for a system that does not exist.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

To find out more about my in depth view of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/. You can review The Peter Dag Portfolio, free of charge of course. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

George Dagnino, PhD