Can we believe Dr. Yellen?

In 2007. To sum up the story on the outlook for real GDP growth, my own view is that, under appropriate monetary policy, the economy is still likely to achieve a relatively smooth adjustment path, with real GDP growth gradually returning to its roughly 2½ percent trend over the next year or so, and the unemployment rate rising only very gradually to just above its 4¾ percent sustainable level.(Dr. Yellen forecast in december 2007 ahead of Great Recession. For the complete speech click here)

And now. “In closing, let me reiterate that the program of asset purchases initiated by the Federal Open Market Committee in November is intended to support economic recovery from an exceptionally deep recession and to restore inflation to, but not above, levels that FOMC participants consider consistent with price stability. It will not be a panacea, but I believe it will be effective in fostering maximum employment and price stability.” (click here for details for the details of Dr. Yellen forecasts).

How can you believe what they are telling us when they missed the Great Recession when it was just around the corner. I know we need to believe. It is human. I know we do not want to believe that that what they are telling us is just plainly unreliable. But this is the way things work.

We have to do our own homework and decide by ourselves what is really happening. All the forecasts being printed are absolutely worthless!

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site.