Business cycle indicators

I forecast the phases of the business cycle (see also previous posts) by using three types of indicators.

Indicators leading the business cycle
1. Profits
2. Yield curve
3. Stock market
4. Unemployment claims

Indicators coincident with the business cycle
1. Income
2. Production
3. Sales
4. Employment
5. Commodities

Indicators lagging the business cycle
1. Inflation
2. Interest rates
3. Unit labor costs

These three groups of indicators are closely related through lead-lag relationships.

The most important indicators? The lagging indicators.

Why? Because their trend can be used to predict the trend of the leading indicators.

These indicators are used in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio to guide my investment strategy.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

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