About inflation

I think people confuse short-term and long-term. Then you have to add the odds of being right. Then you have to decide what are you going to do about it.

Prices are declining -- right now. Consumer and producer prices declined in the past 12 months.

This is what happens when the economy is weak and unemployment is rising. Inflation rises several months -- up to 2 years --- after the expansion is under way. So, in the near term you should not fear inflation. The odds are close to 100%.

I recognize the Fed is printing money aggressively, the deficit is ballooning etc..etc...etc...At some point inflation will rise. When? Not in the near term. Odds are close to 100%.

Now, right now, what are you going to do about it? Bet on deflation or very low inflation.

To find out more about my in depth view of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, since 1977