The business cycle and commodities

 

 

 

The business cycle at work:

1. The economy weakens
2. Commodities decline
3. Capital investment declines (see above chart)
4. Long-term interest rates decline
5. The economy begins to revive
6. Commodities strengthen
7. Capital investment increases
8. Long-term interest rates rise

Where are we in this cycle? In phase 4.

 

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George Dagnino, PhD

Editor
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets
 

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