10/9/10

Observations

I am amazed by the scope and depth of the “empire” dominated by English speaking people. I am not thinking of military domination. What impresses me is the cultural domination. Let me explain.

After traveling more than 24 hours by plane I found myself in a country (New Zealand) located at the other side of the globe with people that could have lived next door in the USA.

They spoke the same language. They had the same courtesy and civil ethics. Their sense of order and cleanliness were pleasing. Customs and behavior were very predictable. I did not have any surprises whatsoever. Their libraries, food, restrooms. Driving on the left hand side is the ultimate cultural heritage.

Australia. USA. Canada. You can make the case that there are other English speaking countries striving to adopt the same culture and institutions – India.

The US is now the leading pole bearer of the English speaking empire. We are trying to take our institutions and sense of discipline to other countries. First Europe. Then Asia. Now the Middle East. Russia?

But it will have to come to an end as previous secular empires did: the Roman and the Ottoman empires.

They conquered new lands. They brought their superb culture and political and administrative institutions to the territories they captured. Wealth was quickly accumulated through trade. Now we call it “globalization” or “outsourcing.”

Then, the “barbarians” start changing the rules of the game at the outskirt of the empire. Wealth does not flow to Rome or Washington or London or Constantinople as it used to. The European industrial revolution could not be adopted by the Ottomans because of lack of schools.

Corruption in the capital increases. The advent of new ideas (such as Christianity for Rome) changes the focus of the conquest. The culture that made the empire survive and prosper becomes tarnished. People in other lands begin to do things better. Slowly the Empire loses its economic strength. Its reach cannot be maintained. And the new “barbarians” establish their cultures.

(This "Observations" appeared in the issue of 3/13/06 of The Peter Dag Portfolio)

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked best market timer in the 12 and 6 months ending 8/20/10 by Timer Digest

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1 comment:

Stock said...

The middle chart is GLD/SLV. You can see this is an excellent indicator, when this ratio is at a bottom, the market usually tanks, within 3 to 5 days, but sometimes immediately. The trick is figuring out when the bottom is.

This top chart is SPY/VIX I plotted it just to see if any interesting effects came up....none really

The Bottom chart is SPX, the S&P 500, follow each purple line from the GLD/SLV bottoms. Amazing methinks. The two highlighted candle patterns are similar, the first one started the Head of the infamous 2009 Head and Shoulders Bear trap. The second one is NOW.

And finally, a boatload of other charts for your free consumption.

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