Who is right?

RICHARD RUSSELL: “SELL ANYTHING”. Russell has become increasingly bearish since early April. He says the market is crumbling and believes the internals are so bad that the market is very vulnerable to substantial downside.

Kass: Fear Is the Rational Buyer's Friend, A conservatively constructed valuation model produces a S&P objective of about 1,250 to 1,270 (15 times P/E, which is lower than the long-term average but higher than the current 13 times), for about a 15% upside

Birinyi. Today the S&P 500 traded down to a low of 1076.12, that's 8.2% below (3 standard deviations!) the 50-day moving average. In February the S&P reached similar levels intra day on 2/5, and then again on 5/6, but each time the market rallied back to close above that 3 standard deviation threshold.

My view. These are uncertain times. Like always. There no "certain" times. Investing implies flexibility. especially now that the markets have unquestionably shown that investing "over the long term" is nonsense.

Flexibility means you have to have an investment process. One that you feel comfortable with. That fits your psychological profile. Flexibility is based on gradualism, adapting your exposure to various asset classes depending on fundamental and technical evidence.

One of my rules is :When in doubt do something.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 and 2010 by Timer Digest

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