This economic and investment environment follows the script of the business cycle.
Commodities -- and related investments -- appreciate when the economy is strong (Phase 1 and Phase 2).
Yields decline (bonds are strong) when the economy weakens (Phase 3 and Phase 4).
Investors are amazed that yields keep declining. Yields are doing what they are supposed to do during a period of slower growth.
Bonds will be a great short, as some gurus suggest, only when the economy strengthens and the business cycle moves rapidly from Phase 1 to Phase 2 and the economy strengthens accompanied by firm commodities.
I am not sure I see this scenario right now. Eventually.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.
Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.
No comments:
Post a Comment