5/19/09

Watch the bank index for clues about the direction of the market


The S&P 500 Banks Index slumped 4.4 percent, the most among 24 industries, after the Moody’s report. U.S. commercial property prices are now down almost 23 percent from the October 2007 peak and transactions have dropped as much as 80 percent, according to Moody’s/REAL Indices issued today. Prices fell 1.7 percent in March from February.

“Moody’s expects continued weakness and possibly further declines in volume in the coming months,” the ratings company said in a statement.

Watch the bank index (click on chart to enlarge). It stands at a major resistance level. This index is important because it may lead the market.

Note how it has gone nowhere since mid-April.

To find out more about my in depth view of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, since 1977

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