Europe is heading into a recession from which it will struggle to recover, while America may have got away with a relatively minor economic contraction from which it may rebound sooner than expected.
Take, for an overall picture of activity in the “real economy”, last month's chart from the Institute for Supply Management in the US and compare them with eurozone purchasing managers' index.
On both sides of the Atlantic, business is difficult, beset by higher costs, uncertain demand, inflation worries and fear of further nasty surprises in financial markets.
But in the US, the manufacturing PMI has held remarkably steady through the turbulence, with only short dips below the 50 per cent equilibrium level it is registering. The sector is adding jobs, and, at 54 per cent, export orders are healthy.
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George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
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