12/29/07

Stock prices and short-term interest rates

I reviewed again the historical relationship between the stock market and short-term interest rates.

Conclusions?

1. Investors have to be cautious following a cyclical bottom in short-term interest rates.

2. The markets is very likely to move higher following a decline of a few months in short-term interest rates.

I will show you the graphs from 1955 in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

How do you use this information?

First of all you need to have an entry and exit strategy. Then, play the odds.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/28/07

Do not despair

Today the market went down more than 192 points.

There were some good signs. Things look up.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/26/07

The road to socialism

France. They gave us the French Revolution (1789–1799), a period of political and social upheaval in the history of France and Europe. It was a bloody and heroic challenge to the French structure of government. The monarchy had absolute power with feudal privileges for the aristocracy and the Church.

People died in the name of liberty, equality, and fraternity. These changes were accompanied by violent turmoil, including executions and repressions. The European power structure of the time trembled because the message from France was loud and clear. The chaos caused by the new form of democracy was controlled by Napoleon, the emperor.

This time France is shaken again by the free-market (“liberal”) ideas of Mr. Sarkozy. Recently he was confronted with what some hard-left union leaders promised would be a replay of 1995. On Wednesday, November 14th railway, bus and metro workers brought France to a standstill on the first day of a rolling, open-ended strike against similar plans to end the special regimes. On November 20th teachers, town-hall staff, post-office workers and other civil servants were due to strike. And militant students had put up blockades on 20-odd university campuses. In two cases, riot police were sent in to clear them.

In a democracy the masses ask. The politicians give. Until there is no more money. Stagnation. Changes need to be made. The masses resist. In France, Germany, and Italy people do not want to give up the acquired rights.

Then, a Napoleon or Putin comes, followed by new revolutions to regain the lost freedoms. And, like the ebb and tides of the ocean, political systems come and go. New promises are made and the masses scramble to get a bigger piece of the pie in the name of liberte’, egalite’, fraternite’.

Democracy becomes socialism, which is the dictatorship of the bureaucracy. Europe is ahead of us. But we are moving steadily in that direction as we make every effort to isolate ourselves from the rest of the world.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

The unthinkable.....

This is what no one is expecting in 2008.

1. The stock market will be very strong, up 15%-25%.

2. The dollar will continue to rise.

3. The economy will be strong with no risk of recession.

4. Inflation will continue to rise to 7-8%.

4. Interest rates will rise sharply.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/20/07

Comments from an astute observer

>......the Fed has no chance of providing meaningful “liquidity” when the Federal government is issuing Treasuries at ten times the rate the Fed can absorb them. At that point, Americans would see better that the resources we need to invest, compete and become a financially sound nation are being hoarded by the Federal government and sent up in flames. (Highly recommended source: http://hussmanfunds.com/)

Dr. Hussman feels the Fed is adding little or no liquidity, not enough to make a dent on the problems facing the financial system.

It is quite possible, however, that the Fed is in the process of diverting (not adding) liquidity from those who do not need it to financially strapped institutions. In this case it is a worthwhile effort.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/19/07

Regulations distort the markets and....

This is how full fledged socialism is born.

Regulations are followed by more regulations, thus distorting the markets. And this situation requires more regulations. More and more groups want to be protected. And the government issues new programs and new regulations. Eventually the economy is so regulated it is stuck in the mud.

Do you need examples? Look at France and Italy.

We have serious problems in the housing sector because it is heavily regulated from the borrower, lender, investor viewpoints.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

This Fed is inexperienced

The markets will force our inexperienced central bank to ease more aggressively because the global system has serious credit/derivatives problems (well beyond the subprime issue).

This situation has major implications for equity markets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/18/07

The central banks are acting...or so it seems

The European Central Bank injected 348.6 billion euros ($501.5 billion) for two weeks to ease the year-end scramble for cash in the money markets. The so-called TED spread, the difference between the rates at which the government and banks pay for three-month loans, slid from last week's four-month high.

The Federal Reserve, in tandem with the ECB and other central banks such as the Bank of England, is adding liquidity to help undo a logjam in credit markets, starting with the first of four auctions of cash to banks yesterday. (Source: Bloomberg).

This is good news for the stock market.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/17/07

A timely comment by Dr. Roubini

Some very interesting comments by Dr. Roubini.

Unfortunately, this past week the central banks of the world – instead of using their most powerful and effective liquidity hoses – i.e. a reduction in policy rates – have stared at this most dangerous and spreading fire of a global liquidity seizure and decided to continue to use hand-carried and hand-held buckets of water that have proven ineffective before and have been ineffective again as liquidity spread have remained stubbornly high even after these new monetary injections were announced.

They will realize in due time that much more effective and radical action – in the form of aggressive reduction in monetary policy rates – may be necessary and warranted. But it looks like they are already behind the curve – most of all the ECB – and what they will do ahead will be too little too late to address a fire that is now spreading without control from country to country.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/16/07

Mr. Bernanke should resign

The rate on 13-week Treasury bills stands at 2.87%. The Fed funds rate, the rate targeted by the Fed, is sitting at 4.25%. Is the Fed asleep at the wheel?

The Fed is setting interest rates out of line with the markets. Incredible!

The financial markets are in turmoil and the Fed plays by the school book. Too theoretical. The markets need help, not theories. The official interest rate should be much closer to 3% than 4%.

Bottom line. Mr. Bernanke is failing an important test and should be going back to teaching and research!

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/1/07

As I said before (see below) .....

Times of financial crisis are superb buy opportunities.

Why? Because the Treasury and the Fed panic...and this means more money in circulation....more money into stocks.

This is a great buy opportunity...

Enjoy!

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/30/07

The European social system is cracking

Transport throughout Italy is paralysed today by a one-day strike affecting tens of thousands of people. Unions called the stoppage to protest over budget cutbacks in the public sector. "In principle I agree with them. But it's a shame that ordinary citizens, who have no share in the blame for this, have to suffer the consequences," said one traveller.

Rail and local public transport nationwide has ground to a halt. One rail worker said he felt let down by the trade unions: "Today's strike is all for show, it won't change anything."

The bottom line? As in France, when governments become too large and invasive, the system does not work. Stalls. Changes need to be made. But people do not want to give up the acquired rights.

They are finding our that there is no free lunch.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

As I said before..the Fed is irrelevant

What is happening now proves my point.

The Fed signalled that is going to ease further. This is no news for my readers and followers of business cycle trends.

The rate on 13-week Treasury bills has been sagging for weeks.

The Fed follows the markets as it tries to maintain liquidity of the member banks.

Keep an eye on the dollar. This is the important trend. It is strengthening and it shows foreign capital is moving in to buy financial assets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/29/07

Interesting developments....

The dollar is strengthening.

Gold is weak.

Crude oil is weak.

Copper, aluminum, and natural gas have not been going anywhere for some time.

Interest rates are declining.

The Fed is way behind the curve with the rate on T. bills close to 3% and the fed fund rate at 4.5%.

These are interesting trends that spell solid profits ahead.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/25/07

The real reason for the dollar debacle

A currency reflects the inflation or productivity differential between two countries.

The country with the lowest inflation and highest productivity has the strongest currency.

Inflation is soaring in the US. Inflation (at the consumer level) of medical care, transportation, and food ranges in the 4.4%-5.8% range. If you do not drive or eat, inflation is 2.2%.

Prices at the producer level (finished goods) are up torrid 6.1%. Prices of intermediate goods soared 5.6% in the past 12 months, and prices of raw materials leaped 25.7% in the same period.

The politicians keep promising and we keep asking. But prices are bound to rise if we do not produce efficiently the goods we want.

The dollar has been sinking because our priorities are absolutely wrong!

Hello! Is anyone listening!

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/20/07

A currency is an asset...This is why

Merrill Lynch & Co. predicts either the United Arab Emirates or Qatar will cut their dollar peg within half a year. Standard Chartered Plc says the six Gulf Cooperation Council nations need to raise the value of their currencies 20 percent. The difference between the price of the Saudi Arabian riyal and the cost of buying it in a year using forward contracts has widened 10-fold since October as traders bet the kingdom will sever its 21-year-old link to the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

A currency is an important asset for any country. The Arabs understand this idea very well.

The reason they want to cut their dollar peg is that their currency will appreciate and they will be able to invest their enormous surplus by buying foreign assets at a discount.

Why not! Hello Mr. Bush, Mr. Paulson, Mr. Bernanke...are you listening?

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/19/07

Bad news for the dollar

Omar Bin Sulaiman, governor of the Dubai International Financial Centre, talked with Bloomberg's Will McSheehy in Dubai about the possibility that the United Arab Emirates and other countries in the Gulf region will revalue their currencies against the dollar.

Gulf states are under pressure to end their currency pegs to the dollar after the U.S. currency fell 10 percent against the euro in 2007. Inflation in the region is accelerating at the fastest pace in at least five years as the weak dollar drives up import costs. (Source: Bloomberg)

It looks like international investors are avoiding the dollar and are pleased with their strong currency status.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/18/07

Oops!

Suddenly things do not look rosy.

U.S. industrial production was down 0.5%, the Fed said. Production was weak across the board in October. One of the only bright spots was civilian aircraft. The output of consumer goods fell 0.7% in October, led by the index for consumer durable goods. Output of automotive products, home electronics, appliances, furniture and carpeting all declined last month.

Implication No. 1. The Fed is way behind the curve as discussed in a previous blog.

Implication No. 2. If the US slows down, the world will also slow down (see previous blog).

Implication No. 3. If the global economy slows down, prices of hard assets become vulnerable.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

This is the real problem

Forget about the strong growth in Asia.

If the US and Europe slow down (their leading indicators point to weakness ahead), what is China going to do? Where are they going to send their exports? Who is going to buy them?

Certainly not the Chinese population, which is earning close to $5,000/year.

So, how can Asia become the growth engine supporting the global economy from a painful readjustment?

Bottom line. If the US slows down, the global economy will be in trouble.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

The Fed is falling behind the curve

The rate on 13-week Treasury bills has fallen to 3.27%. The Fed funds rate stands at 4.75%.

The two rates have always moved close together. They diverge in times of crisis as in 1998 and now. Reason: the Fed is slow in recognizing and understanding the problems.

This time is no exception. Implications? The Fed will be forced to a implement a major reflationary program and much lower short-term interest rates.

This is good news for the financial markets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/17/07

The dollar and the next recession

I enjoy Dr. Robert Reich's blog. He is a solid thinker with a lot of common sense. He is the nation's 22nd Secretary of Labor and a professor at the University of California at Berkeley (blog: http://robertreich.blogspot.com). These are some of his latest notes. I take them seriously in light of the protracted and ominous decline of the dollar.

....the era of easy money is over. The housing bubble is bursting, and home equity is drying up. Credit card debt is next. Personal bankruptcies rose 48 percent in first half of 2007, likely even more in the second half – which means a wave of credit-card defaults. If you think the trillion dollars in sub-prime mortgage debt carried by big banks is large, think of the record nine hundred fifteen billion dollars Americans hold in credit-card debt.

The splurge is over, folks. As the days of easy money come to an end, what will America look like? Maybe we’ll see a recession in the short term, but more importantly over the long term: the American middle class will have a truer understanding of what it can and cannot afford; a truer sense of what’s really happened to its paychecks; and a more realistic view of where and to whom the economic gains of the last dozen years have actually gone.

I firmly, wholeheartedly believe that the decline of the dollar since 2003 is not a coincidence. The message of the international investment community is that opportunities will be found somewhere else.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

A recession?

This is a summary of the reasons expressed by economists and the press.

1. Economist do not expect a recession. They are typically wrong. So, do not listen to them.

2. The economy seems to be stalling in the fourth quarter. Consumer confidence is slumping and unemployment claims jumped.

3. The housing market is imploding. I predicted it will remain weak until 2009-2010. Prices will continue to erode, inflicting serious damage to consumers' willingness to spend.

4. Credit conditions are and will remain tight because of the subprime/derivatives/Greenspan fiasco.

5. The increase in oil prices further dents the spending power of consumers. The big ticket items such as autos are the first victims of this retrenchment.

6. Weak productivity growth cannot absorb rising wages. The outcome is higher unit labor costs and downward pressure on profits.

7. The weak dollar and lower profits will hinder business investment in the US and overseas.

8. There seem almost uniform consensus of the waning power of the US in the global.

What to do from an investment viewpoint? I always believed that one of the best approaches is to listen very carefully to the message of the markets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

France and the survival of democracy

(Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy may be gaining the upper hand in his confrontation with striking transit workers -- a fight he can ill afford to lose.

More employees reported to work on the walkout's third day today and train and bus service increased, though the strike over Sarkozy's proposal to rein in pension benefits may stretch into next week. The president is staking much of his economic agenda on the battle, which he says is essential to his plans for increasing France's competitiveness.

Sarkozy is trying to save France from socialism. Once democracy evolves into socialism it is difficult to go back because citizens do not want to give up their accrued rights.

We want more and more. The politicians give us more and more. And we lose our freedoms as socialism displaces democracy.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

The economy is slowing down

(Bloomberg) -- FedEx Corp., the No. 2 U.S. package- shipping company, cut its profit forecast for a second time because of rising fuel costs and weak freight demand. The shares fell the most in 16 months.

FedEx and other transportation companies are among the first affected by economic slowdowns or expansions, making them leading indicators. The National Retail Federation anticipates the smallest holiday-sales increase in five years.

Bad news for the economy. The economic slowdown is becoming a reality. This is very important to know when you select your investment strategy.

The stock sectors strong in an economic slowdown are much different from the sectors you should invest in a period of economic strength.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/16/07

The dollar is the fever chart of our country

(Bloomberg). Paulson, like his four predecessors, has stuck with former Treasury chief Robert E. Rubin's phrase that a ``strong'' dollar is in the U.S. interest. Officials repeated the phrase whether the dollar was rising or falling. Now, Paulson is under pressure from European policy makers to more forcefully defend the currency after it fell to a record low last week.

That strategy may meet with limited success because the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, while banks in Europe and Asia are either tightening or keeping them unchanged. Moreover, words may carry little weight in a market that's swollen to $3.2 trillion a day.

Interest rates differentials do not drive currencies. A weak currency is not inflationary.

It is exactly the opposite. Rising inflation forces interest rates to move higher and is conducive to a weak currency.

Cut taxes and regulations and stop our wars and the dollar will strengthen. It is the only way to be accepted again by the international community.

The trend of a currency is the ultimate fever chart of a country.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

The dollar is an asset

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- ``It may be our currency, but it's your problem'' was Treasury Secretary John Connally's taunt when the U.S. unhooked the dollar from the gold standard in 1971, unilaterally rewriting the rules of world business in America's favor.

Now the world is taunting back. Almost four decades after the U.S. tore up the monetary arrangements that governed the post-World War II international economy, the dollar's fall from grace amounts to a tectonic shift in the global hierarchy. This time, the U.S. currency is on the losing side.

Amen! When will we start thinking that a currency is a crucial asset? Business will find much more expensive investing oversea thus hindering even further our competitive advantage.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

The forecasts of the Fed

Bernanke said yesterday that Fed officials will add a third year to their forecasts and double the frequency to once a quarter. The reports will give investors and companies more details on why interest rates were adjusted and offer a map for where they are likely to go.

Why do investors watch the Fed? The rate on 13-week Treasury bills is a superb leading indicator of where the interest rate set by the Fed is going.

The Fed will become less relevant by saying what other forecasters are saying so that investors will ignore it.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Recession?

Question: In your opinion, is this the reason for the dramatic fall of stock prices recently and do you agree that we are in or will have a recession?

The market is has not done much since February. So far the market is predicting a slowdown.

Recessions or slowdowns have the same effect on the markets. In either case commodities, interest rates, and inflation decline. These trends drive the sectors outperforming the market.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/11/07

The Fed lacks leadership

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke failed to convince investors that there's no need for further interest-rate cuts soon.

Bernanke told lawmakers in Washington yesterday that officials already expect the economy to ``slow noticeably'' this quarter, and warned of ``upside risks'' to inflation.

I agree. Mr. Bernanke failed to show leadership. He should have told Congress the Fed was in control and everything will be done to keep the unwinding of risk from getting out of control.

He hedged his statements giving the impression of being insecure. And the market sagged. Including the dollar.

Hopefully he learned the lesson.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/8/07

Does the collapse of the dollar, the credit bubble, soaring gold and crude oil signal the beginning of the end of America's supremacy?

What if. I am constantly thinking about it.

The weakness of the dollar is the outcome of a situation.

It is not the consequences of a weak dollar that matters. Am I making myself clear?

The weakness of the dollar since 2004 is a strong message that we are becoming a socialist country. We are gradually losing our edge as a free market country.

The real free market economy is China, as Jimmy Rogers pointed out.

What should your investment strategy be?

Or ...how should you hedge your portfolio?

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/7/07

Interesting statistics about the BRICs

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- For all the concern about stock-market bubbles in Brazil, Russia, India, China, the biggest emerging markets still may have more promise than anything in the developed world.

The simple math of comparing the value of companies with their countries' combined gross domestic product shows the so- called BRIC markets total $1.71 trillion, or 25 percent of their GDP. U.S. equities available for trading, by contrast, are worth $13.98 trillion, or about the same as comparable GDP, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg. Stocks in all industrialized nations account for 81 percent of GDP.

That helps explain why the BRICs are ``in the early stages of the rally,'' said Jeffrey Kleintop, who helps oversee $163 billion as chief market strategist at LPL Financial Services in Boston and is adding to his ``overweight'' in developing-nation stocks by selling shares in industrialized countries. ``You're seeing a lot of areas run up, but it's not gotten to the point where it is representative of the overall economy.''

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/6/07

....and China keeps moving ....

As we become increasingly tied in our Middle East venture, China keeps expanding in Africa. It looks to me that they keep their eyes on the ball. The outcome is that their currency is strong and our is weak.

A strong currency provides a formidable strategic advantage when a country wants to expand its business worldwide.

CAIRO, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- Chief of a Chinese car maker announced here on Monday that one more brand model of his company came into the Egyptian market for the first time as an important step forward for the company's international marketing strategy.

Liu Zhigang, President of China's Shenyang Brilliance Jinbei Automobile Co. Ltd, made the announcement at a press conference held Monday in the Egyptian capital of Cairo, saying his company has made great efforts on enlarging international market.

Following several models' well selling in Egypt during past years, the introduction of Brilliance Splendor into the Arab country is another major step for the Chinese car company to advance its marketing strategy in the Middle East and Africa, said Liu.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/5/07

I am just wondering....

Years ago we were concerned about the derivative bubble.

Policy makers told us not to worry. They add liquidity to the markets.

Well, I am just wondering if we are witnessing the unwinding of the derivative bubble.

Nothing to do with the subprime. Much more serious. Time will tell.

I still believe this is good news for the markets. Gold and commodities in particular.

Why?

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/2/07

The Fed is acting

The US Federal Reserve was forced to pump $41 billion into the financial system, the largest cash infusion since the September 2001 terrorist attacks, as fears of a fresh round of massive banking writedowns added to concerns on Wall Street and in London.

Economists said that a clear signal from the Fed that its quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday may be the last for some months added to investors’ fears that the central bank’s scope to fend off a severe US slowdown may be hampered by its nagging worries over inflation dangers.

The Fed is acting to protect the financial institutions before the mess we are in gets us more into trouble. And will continue to do so in the future. This is their responsibility. To keep the financial institutions out of trouble. At all costs for the sake of the overall economic and financial system.

The good news for the markets continues as liquidity is pumped into the system. The dollar and inflation, however, will become the next policy issue. For the time being, however, the viability of the financial system of the USA remains the top priority of the government.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Crises and markets

Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, is seeking to persuade the White House to offer financial compensation to American mortgage lenders that try to help troubled homeowners by renegotiating the terms of their loans.

The Times has learnt that Mr Paulson is lobbying President Bush to provide funds so that mortgage lenders can reduce the loss that they would incur from either reducing the rate of an adjustable home loan or extending the life of the mortgage to make it cheaper for the property owner.

It is understood that Mr Paulson’s proposals are meeting significant resistance within Washington, where it is perceived that such a move would be a bank bail-out scheme.

It is going to happen. I always believed it (see previous blogs). The government will bail out the financial institutions and some borrowers. That we like it or not.

The subprime/housing/derivative fiasco is a problem that will stay with us for several years, as the S&L collapse of the late 1980s.

Markets will enjoy this extra shot of liquidity. Now as then.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

11/1/07

A bearish forecast

Goldman Sachs, Wall Street’s most bullish investment bank on oil, on Tuesday turned negative on the short-term outlook for crude, recommending investors take profits after prices jumped to a record above $90 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell $2.73 to $90.80 a barrel in early trading in the US, partly in response to the warning from the investment bank, which has been influential on the oil market with upbeat price forecasts, including one in 2005 of a “super spike” in crude to $105 a barrel.

Jeffery Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said oil price “downside risks” were gaining momentum and he forecast a decline towards $80 a barrel in the first quarter of 2008.

This forecast, if correct, will coincide with my view of a possible broad market correction in the first quarter of 2008. Time will be tell.

Stay tuned.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

10/31/07

Taxes, taxes, and more taxes

Sweden's government collected the highest share of national income of all rich countries, with neighbouring Denmark a close second, according to figures from 2006. In general, government claims a bigger slice of national income than a generation ago, says the OECD. The tax burden in Europe in 2005 was above the OECD average of 36.2% of GDP, which itself had leapt up from 29.5% in 1975. Ireland, where the government claimed 31.7% of GDP, is a comparative tax haven, due partly to a light touch on companies. America paid less than 30% of its income in taxes. Mexico is the least-taxed country, taking 20.6% of GDP in 2006.

Globalization is alive and well


Small, rich and stable countries tend to be the most globalised, at least according to an index of 72 countries by A.T. Kearney, a consultancy, and Foreign Policy magazine (click on table to enlarge). The index uses 12 measures which cover economic integration, personal contact, political engagement and technological connectivity. Singapore and Hong Kong make the top spots, boosted by the larger weighting given to the economic variables of trade and foreign-direct investment as a percentage of GDP. America, not entirely convincingly, scores poorly on the economic measures. Jordan comes in ninth, helped by its top ranking for political engagement as a result of its involvement in UN peacekeeping missions. The index may be most useful for starting debates.

10/27/07

Yield curve, business cycles, and stock sectors

I am a firm believer of the predictive features of the yield curve. In my The Peter Dag Portfolio I use it to forecast the direction of the economy.

A steepening yield curve is followed after 6-12 months by a stronger economy. A flattening yield curve is followed after 6-12 months by an economic slowdown.

The Hussman Funds website is consistently showing stimulating research. A recent paper by W. Hester discusses how the global yield curve is also correlated to earnings. This is not surprising since earnings depend on economic growth. What makes the paper unique is that Mr. Hester relates the recent shape of the global yield curve to stock sectors.

I have been a firm proponent of using trends in economic growth to select asset classes and stock sectors in particular. The bottom line is if the yield curve is predicting a slower economy and earnings, investors should be in defensive sectors. If the yield curve predicts a stronger economy and earnings, investor should be exposed to aggressive sectors.

I will discuss in detail how sectors are related to business cycles in Pittsburgh on November 13 (for more information please call Larry at 412-741-3674) and at the AAII national meeting in Orlando on November 8-10 (please call 800-428-2244 for more information).

I recommend you read the complete article by Hester on http://hussmanfunds.com/rsi/globalycurve.htm

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

AAII bearish sentiment soared

The most recent release of the AAII sentiment survey shows that last Friday's drop on the 20th anniversary of the '87 crash seems to have struck a nerve with investors. Bearish sentiment rose to its highest levels since May.

The S&P 500 over the last five years performed well following high levels of bearish sentiment.

Enjoy!

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

10/25/07

Dark Ages America? A review.

As we age we grow disappointed by how the world works. Dark Ages America by M. Berman is a recap of all we seem to be doing wrong. A challenge.

The underlying theme of the book is the USA has entered a period similar to the decline of the Roman Empire (starting in 200 AD) which signalled the beginning of the dark ages in Europe.

The Roman Empire dissolved slowly. As Rome grew powerful it started to conquer new lands, train local armies, welcome to Rome immigrants to perform the humble jobs while the Romans grew complacent. The barbarians gradually absorbed the Roman culture without providing new life to it. Rome weakened because the Romans forgot what being a Roman meant. The outcome: decadence on all fronts.

Is this what is happening to the US? Mr. Berman seems to think so. We are growing contented and these are the main themes of the book. Just food for thought.

1. We are an empire. We have fought almost every country. We have troops, ships, planes, bases, proconsuls all over the planet. We fight and destroy to bring Pax Americana (read: democracy). Yet we have supported the most ferocious dictators (such as Hussein).

2. We need an enemy to fuel our drive to conquer. First there was Russia, now we have the terrorists. This is an enemy we use to control the oil in the Middle East, an endeavor which started in 1908. The history reported is interesting and eye opening (for me).

3. We are not told what is going on and what the US policies are. The chapter Axis of Resentment is particularly interesting in this respect.

4. Our education system is in shambles and we cannot compete in the global economy when our students fall miserably close to the bottom of international rankings.

5. Our civil liberties and value system are being dramatically eroded in the name of fighting terrorism.

6. Our thirst for war in the name of bringing democracy around the world is the road to the collapse of the US empire as it was the beginning of the end of the Roman empire.

[Ed: Russia and China are watching.]

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
(and still having fun with it)

10/22/07

Good news from the action of the dollar and bonds

The dollar and bonds point to a more stable market following the disastrous and emotional decline of last Friday.

This morning the dollar is strong across the board. Global capital is flowing into dollars seeking opportunities. This is good news for equities.

Bond yields are slightly higher. Money is not moving into safe investments such as Treausry bonds and is willing to go into higher risk investments.

Bottom line: it looks like the financial markets are stabilizing.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

10/18/07

Time to enjoy....and to profit

The US economy will suffer further damage from the downturn in the American housing market, Hank Paulson (US Treasury Secretary) warned.

The implosion of the housing bubble will have negative repercussion on the economy, on consumers, and on the financial system.

Are you panicking yet? Well, do not.

The Financial Times raises the issue of what will the Fed do.

How can they be so naive. The Fed will do what is supposed to do. They will add liquidity into the banking system, they will come up with everything humanly possible to protect the banks from going under. This is their job.

My friends, this is spectacularly bullish for the markets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

10/17/07

Crises are bullish for stocks

Housing starts are down more than 10% from last month....bullish for stocks.

Financial stocks are weak again as credit issues become widespread....bullish for stocks.

The Beige Book is bearish on the economy....bullish for stocks.

Trading volume has increased substantially as the Dow weakened in the past five days....bullish for stocks (Dow closed at 13892.54).

Bond prices are soaring....bullish for stocks.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

10/14/07

An interesting view by Dr. Robert Reich (http://robertreich.blogspot.com/)

I’ve got a way to reduce global poverty, decrease the number of workers crossing our borders illegally, save American taxpayers money, and cut your supermarket bill -- in one fell swoop. How? Get rid of US farm subsidies and tariffs.

They were supposed to be a temporary remedy for small farmers during the Depression. But, renewed every five years regardless of which party controls Congress, farm subsidies keep going and going. They've been costing taxpayers some $11 billion a year. The Senate is now considering the latest version, and it's hardly better than what's come before.

Look, I have no problem insuring small farmers against major losses. But farm subsidies go mostly to big agribusinesses that hardly need them.

But the big problem isn't just the waste of taxpayer money. Americans -- including the US media and even Washington politicos -- tend to regard agriculture policy as the exclusive domain of legislators from farm states. Yet our farm policy is the single most damaging thing we're doing to the world's poor. Ending farm subsidies and tariffs would be the single most important thing we could do to reduce global poverty.

Fewer than 2 percent of Americans even work on a farm. Yet about half the population of the developing world depends on farming for their livelihoods. They can’t earn what the global market would otherwise pay them because America’s subsidized farm exports keep prices artificially low.

American cotton growers, for example, export cotton for just over half what it costs them to produce it. Which means more than 10 million African cotton farmers are stymied. If we stopped subsidizing our cotton businesses, world cotton prices would rise, increasing the value of cotton exports from Africa by some $300 million a year.

Meanwhile, the average American tariff on agricultural imports is 18 percent – much higher than the 5 percent average tariff on other imports. So not only do the world’s poor suffer because of our outdated farm policies, but Americans get hit with a double-whammy – we’re subsidizing US agribusiness with our tax dollars while paying some $35 billion a year more for our food than we’d pay if we didn’t also protect agribusinesses.

Our farm policies are even encouraging illegal immigration into the United States. That's because many of the world’s poor who can’t earn enough by farming are desperate to immigrate – legally or illegally – to richer countries like America.

Message to the U.S. Senate: You want to fight global poverty and illegal immigration? You want to reduce the budget deficit? You want to give American consumers a break? There's no simpler first step to accomplish all these things than to end farm subsidies and tariffs.

10/12/07

Toward a China-ASEAN free trade area

The Chinese government has approved plans for the country's fourth harbor area with preferential tax rates in a major step towards a free trade zone with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The State Council authorized the Yangpu Bonded Harbor Area in the Yangpu Economic Development Zone, south China's Hainan Province, covering 9.21 sq km and to be completed in three stages.

By 2010, China and Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, will impose zero tariffs on most products, while China and the four newer ASEAN members of Cambodia, the Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam will do the same in 2015.

The China-ASEAN free trade area has a population of 1.8 billion and two trillion U.S. dollars in gross domestic product (GDP). It will become the third largest global trading region after the European Union and the North America Free Trade Zone.

Bottom line: We need to recognize that Asia is here to stay and is going to be a major competitor. Protectionism will not help us. Congress will have to continue to follow pro-growth and pro-wealth-creation policies.

Investments in Asia, meanwhile, will continue to produce above average returns because of the pro-growth policies followed by the Asian countries.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

10/11/07

The US dollar and the Italians

I like to follow what is happening in Italy for several reasons. First of all, of course, it is the country where I spent a substantial part of my life. I understand what makes the Italians click and why. Although very creative, their economy is going nowhere.

They represent a great case study of how the political system of a nation can become so distorted to turn into a totally unmanageable economic system.

The little booklet by Fromm, bought years ago during one of my trips, made me think. I am not sure I agree with him when he suggests that the concept of property drives people to behave aggressively and basically ruins their life. He suggests we want to own and in the search of owning we fail to see what is exciting in life.

What triggered my interest, however, are his comments about what people seek. What do we want? What do we want to have to be happy?

One of the basic instincts is to achieve a sense of safety. To achieve a state that we can hang on to and feel safe because we are afraid of the unknown. Uncertainty makes us nervous. This is why we are concerned about new ideas. Because they change the status quo.

And we feel insecure because we lose our freedom, or so we think. What is our reaction? We ask the politicians to make the changes needed to make us feel more secure.

The Italians asked the politicians to make them feel comfortable and sheltered. And the politicians obliged. The price paid has been a massive bureaucracy sucking the lifeblood of the citizens. When one class becomes dominant, in any country, the price to be paid is stagnation. This is the price of security.

The dollar is sinking in a major way. It represents an incredible loss of purchasing power and reflects an overwhelming loss of competitiveness. Yet, the politicians are addressing our concerns and trying to make us feel secure (physically and psychologically).

No one, however, is even suggesting who and how we are going to pay for our security. Who and how is going to produce the wealth to pay the bill?

As the bureaucracy needed to provide us with what we want becomes more dominant , the country will fall in an economic gridlock. The weak dollar and the Italians have something in common.

George Dagnino, PhD

The dollar: weak

The dollar keeps sinking. No one seems interested in its disastrous trend.

Reasons for its weakness.

Lack of competitive advantage of most of our industries.

Low overall productivity growth.

Rising wages and rising labor costs adjusted by productivity, forcing profits to grow more slowly.

Increasing regulations concerning who is allowed to buy our assets (also known as creeping protectionism). Either the buyer is unwelcome or the assets are too important for our country, or both.

Our economy is slowing down and its growth rate is well below that of other countries.

Why should large investors be interested in selling their currencies to buy dollars to invest in the USA under these circumstances?

Mr. Paulson's call favoring a strong dollar is meaningless unless the above trends are reversed.

A weak dollar is the main reason for the strength of commodities (which are denominated in US dollars). More details in the following blogs.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Bonds: weak

The action of the bond market is becoming interesting.

Yields have been rising in the past few weeks. If this trend continues, it is bad news for the stock market. But we are not there yet. See my previous blogs on their relationship.

The rise in yields is the outcome of a strengthening economy and rising inflationary pressures.

Supply is overwhelming demand as foreign investors avoid our market.

Time to short them?

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Commodities: strong

Commodities are strong, from gold to wheat. Why?

There are several reason. The first one is that the global and US economies are stronger than generally believed.

They are denominated in dollars, and reflect the devaluation of the greenback.

Their action is good news for commodity sensitive stocks.

But their trend is bad news for the outlook of inflation.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

10/3/07

Seasonal patterns

You should be aware of some important seasonal patterns in the stock market.

The market has shown two corrections a year.

Stocks tend to peak in the Spring and have another correction in the Fall.

In 2007 stocks declined in February-March and June-August.

We had our two yearly corrections so it looks like we have entered the favorable seasonal period which goes at least to the end of December. Let's enjoy it!

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

10/1/07

Volume patterns to watch

Trading volume has enormous importance as a technical indicator. These are the patterns to watch.

Rising volume and the market fails to rise and starts trading in a narrow range means distribution. The strong hands are selling stocks to the latecomers. This is a sign of an incipient top.

Rising volume and rising stock prices represent a favorable pattern for the market. Beware, however, of declining volume after such a prolonged event.

Where do we stand now? Volume is very low.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/29/07

Bond yields and stock prices (cont'd)

I was right. The relationship between bonds and stocks remains valid. (See previous blogs on the detailed discussion and explanation).

I was right when I said that lower bond yields are followed by higher stock prices.

I was right when I noted that stocks, once they reach a bottom, continue to rise as long as bond yields keep declining.

What should you look for? The market will continue to move higher as long as bond yields remain close to current levels.

Rising bond yields will signal that risk is increasing. At that time we will rely on my trusted indicators to tell us when we should start reducing our exposure to stocks.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/21/07

The next bubble

Comment from a reader. Any ideas on the next bubble? Soros and Jim Rogers will short it at the top and Buffett will buy it just after the panic. So what are we mere mortals supposed to do?

The dollar is collapsing and commodities (all of them, without any exception) are soaring. This is the new bubble in the making.

They are two sides of the same coin called the demise of the purchasing power of the US consumer.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Stock prices, bond yields, and financial crises

Yes, I was right!

I gave you three main ideas in this blog (see below for detail).

1. Financial crises are a great buy opportunity. And it happened in August-September.

2. A rise in bond yields is followed by a peak in the market. And it happened in May-June.

3. A decline in bond yields is followed by a rise in the stock market. And it happened in August-September.

Now enjoy the trends. Until when?

The charts I showed and the relationships I discussed in the past in this blog between bond yields and stock prices suggest that the stock market will have a pronounced correction following a protracted rise in bond yields.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/18/07

The Fed is irrelevant and creates opportunities

In an interview on Bloomberg TV the well known Jimmy Rogers stated the Fed is irrelevant because they follow the market. They are always behind the curve.

Greenspan, in answering a question from M. Bartiromo on why he lowered interest rates to 1%, said (and I quote): the markets did. In other words, he followed the markets.

Make no mistake about it. The Fed follows the markets trying to fix the problems the policy makers create. Their main objective is to protect the banking system at any price, whatever the consequences.

What is the price we are paying with the latest Fed easing? The dollar tanked as the Dow jumped 335 points. Oil soared above $82. Gold surged past $735. And last, but not least, long bonds weakened.

What does it mean? The price we will pay is lower purchasing power. The Fed is creating the next bubble. And I am planning to profit from it.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/15/07

What the Fed does on Tuesday is irrelevant

These are some comments from Dr. Hussman (more of his insightful comments can be found on www.hussmanfunds.com). Several times I wrote about the irrelevance of the Fed. Dr. Hussman ideas offer reasons to pause and think.

".......... it's unclear exactly how changes in the Federal Funds rate presumably cause changes in market interest rates – statistically, market rates lead and Fed Funds typically follow. We can of course argue that, well, the markets are anticipating the Fed. But why do we really need so badly to believe that a government entity that influences an overnight interest rate on a $41 billion pool of money (this is the entire amount of U.S bank reserves) is actually in tight control of a $13.8 trillion economy?......."

"Ultimately, what's really going on is that we in free market economies are very uncomfortable with the idea that there's nobody in control. As Voltaire said, “If there were no God, it would be necessary to create him.” And since we can be pretty sure that God's first priority isn't bailing out the mortgage market, we look to the Fed. When things are going smoothly, we understand that the economy is complex, and diffuse, and driven by millions of individual decisions. But when trouble strikes, we want to believe that there's somebody up at headquarters with their hands firmly on the controls of the entire operation."

My personal view is that the markets have already "eased". The rate on 13-week Treasury bills has sagged below 4%. The Fed will have to acknowledge the signals given by the markets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Wealth and health

Fromm was a psychoanalysis professor who wrote many books on what life is all about. You do not necessarily have to agree with him.

For instance, people with to have personalities have a main focus: to have, to own, money, power, control of people and things. Even parents may have a to have personality. The children are the object of their power.

A to be personality is creative, projecting what is known. You act without thinking about possessing. If you are, the world is yours. You own something no one will have. It is something only you can understand. It transcends time. It sounds crazy, but it is not.

Asian thinkers go beyond to have and to be. They say that if you focus on achieving the to be personality, you will also achieve wealth as a by-product.

Fromm made an interesting comment in this regard. Spinoza (Dutch philosopher 1632-1677) was the first modern Western thinker to say that health and mental energy are the outcome of how we live. In other words, mental sanity, he says, is a manifestation of living well.

What is the right way to live? He believed that a to have personality, concerned mostly in accumulating wealth and achieving power, develops symptoms similar to sickness. This state eventually affects his/her health. These thinkers do not condemn wealth. What they are saying is that wealth (however you define it) is the outcome, not the objective of living.

George Dagnino,PhD

Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio

Since 1977

9/14/07

Question from a reader

Question: If the Fed cuts rates on September 18, will the dollar just free fall? And where is all this liquidity going and what are the ramifications of a soaring money supply and added liquidity by the world's Central Banks?

The trend of the dollar does not depend only from the level of interest rates. It reflects also productivity trends, financial and government infrastructures and regulations, economic dynamism of the country, and protectionist tendencies (see for instance what happened here when China tried to buy an oil company or Arab interests tried control of west coast ports).

Interest rates are a very small part of the equation. When Brazil had 60% interest rates in the 1970s it also had the weakest currency.

As far as the increased liquidity is concerned, as I mentioned in several blogs below, it is good news for the financial markets. But not for all of them.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Our sinking purchasing power

The dollar is sinking. Oil is hitting new highs. Commodities are strong. Foreclosures are soaring.

I have been writing about this for ages. These trends are different aspects of the same issue: our purchasing power is falling precipitously.

When you go to Europe and you find everything so expensive it is because your purchasing power has fallen dramatically relative to the European purchasing power.

And nobody seems to care.

Hello, is anyone listening? The weak dollar is a sign we have serious problems facing us. Economic problems. Productivity problems. Rising protectionist tendencies. Complete failure of our diplomatic efforts to gain the trust of our allies. Our military adventures.

And Bernanke did not answer the question about the dollar. That's the Treasury problem, he said.

I respectfully suggest that a collapsing dollar is everybody problem.

Hello, does anyone care?

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/8/07

Central banks are acting

The Bank of England (BoE) has acted to ease the continuing credit crunch hitting financial markets. It has increased the amount of cash banks can deposit with it and then use when they need overnight funding.

The move could ease the rates banks are charging each other for short-term loans, which have soared on worries about risky investments.

However these Libor rates remained high despite the intervention.

The Bank's action comes a day before it sets the UK's base interest rate, which is forecast to stay at 5.75%.

The BoE's move means that when banks need additional funds they will be able to draw on the extra money they are now effectively saving with the Bank of England.

The Bank is basically providing additional cheap finance to the banks to meet any short term requirements they might face.

Will our timid Fed become more aggressive? I think so. They will have to undo the damage created by a too aggressive easing (by Greenspan) and a prolonged tightening under Bernanke.

I believe the current crisis will have beneficial effect on the financial markets.

Bonds have acted as I predicted and providing superb returns. Equities will be next.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/6/07

OECD predicts a sharp US slowdown

The US economy will slow sharply in the second half of the year and the risk of it going into recession cannot be ruled out, the OECD has warned.

The 30-nation group of top economies said the global financial fallout from the current US sub-prime mortgage crisis would continue for some time.

It is now forecasting economic growth to fall to 2% in the third quarter and 1.5% in the fourth quarter from the 4% recorded between April and June.

European leading economies are less vulnerable to a housing-led slowdown. This was because their mortgage markets had fewer structural "imbalances" while inflationary pressures were generally lower.

This environment, if it happens, is bullish for the financial markets as the global central banks try to revive the economies of the industrialized world.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/5/07

Comment from a reader

With the need for credit in the current economy, how high does the rate of inflation need to be for the FED to decide against a rate cut?

At this stage of the game inflation is not an issue. The issue is convincing lenders to provide liquidity to business. (See comments below).

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/4/07

Credit problems are spanning the globe

Worries about credit problems in UK banking have risen after the rate at which banks lend to each other hit its highest level since December 1998.

On Tuesday the rate, - known as the London Interbank Offered Rate or Libor - reached 6.7975% for a loan over a three-month period.

It suggests that banks are reluctant to lend money to each other.(Source:BBC News)

Growth, meanwhile, has halved in the 13-nation eurozone between March and June 2007, following weaker investment. The area's economy grew 2.5% on an annual basis, or 0.3% from to the previous quarter, official data showed.

Bottom line. Global central banks will have to lower interest rates. The global economy cannot function without a sound banking system.

This is, of course, good news for the financial markets. Unless the central bankers fall asleep at the wheel.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/2/07

The markets are tightening! Where is the Fed?


The markets are tightening because risk keeps rising. Why?

The 3-month Eurodollar rate is climbing because of rising risk due to lack of liquidity (click on chart to enlarge).

This is what is happening (source: Bloomberg).

The U.S. commercial paper market shrank for a third week, extending the biggest slump in at least seven years and signaling that the Federal Reserve's attempts to lower borrowing costs have had a limited impact so far.

Asset-backed commercial paper, which accounted for half the market, tumbled $59.4 billion to $998 billion in the week ended yesterday, the lowest since December, according to the Federal Reserve. Total short-term debt maturing in 270 days or less fell $62.8 billion to a seasonally adjusted $1.98 trillion. The yield on the highest rated asset-backed paper due tomorrow rose today 0.11 percentage point to a six-year high of 6.15 percent.

The Fed lowered the interest rate it charges to lend to banks to encourage buyers of commercial paper after the market seized up for Thornburg, Countrywide Financial Corp. and other mortgage lenders.

The Fed ``failed to bring money markets back to normal,'' John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service in New York, said in an interview. ``Credit markets are obviously in need of a rate cut.''

In a sign that buyers are still favoring safer assets, an $18 billion auction yesterday for two-year U.S. government debt drew the most demand since 1992.

Bottom line. The markets always win. The markets are telling the policy makers they are behind the curve in handling what is happening. The markets are tightening. This is bad news.

The global central banks will be forced to lower short-term interest rates in a major way and inject large amounts of liquidity.

Of course this situation will have a major impact on all financial markets from commodities to stocks.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

9/1/07

Corporate profits are declining


After tax corporate profits of non-financial corporations have declined 0.03% in the past twelve months (click on graph to enlarge). Why should we care?

Because business will soon start cutting costs. So?

Well, it will increase the chances of recession.

How can we take advantage of this?

This trend will have a positive impact on inflation and bond yields.

Some stock sectors will do very well in this environment.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Are we commoditizing knowledge?

I was driving and decided to change station. An NPR station was interviewing the author of the book Dark Ages America, if I am not mistaken.

What caught my attention were some statistics about the educational level of the population and the idea we are “commoditizing” knowledge. In other words, students are the customers and we are trying to please them, not necessarily challenge them.

This comment reminded me of various interesting situations in my teaching assignments as an adjunct professor in colleges and universities.

I taught for several years a course on management decision making and business cycles. Students recognized my enthusiasm for the subject and gave me an A as an instructor (one of the few A’s I might add).

In one class I had a mature lady who wrote the final essay (I still believe essays are better than multiple choice tests). She wrote all the right words, but the whole paper did not make any sense at all. I just could not give her a passing grade. No way.

Well, I got in trouble with discrimination issues. I had to write a 40 page document explaining my reasons to the president of the college. It was a painful experience.

I changed the tests and made them multiple choice. The right answer, however, was a combination of true and false within the same question. Students loved to hate me for this “innovation”. But they still respected me and told me they appreciated the challenge.

Then the professor evaluation form was introduced. At the beginning students enjoyed my style. Then, as I tried to implement the students’ suggestions, my evaluations began to deteriorate rapidly. I was changing into someone I was not and the students did not like it. I became unhappy.

I could not give too many C’s. I had to please the students. I had to be careful about their ethnicity. I could not give them tough tests. Conclusion. I quit teaching. It was not fun for me anymore. Too much pressure in trying to please the market. Education was not a priority. This is the risk of “commoditizing” knowledge.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/24/07

The housing debacle will end in 2009-2010


Why?

Let's look at two previous episodes: 1978- 1982 and 1986-1990 (click on the chart to enlarge).

They show that when housing has a cyclical downswing, the decline lasts about four years.

The current housing contraction began in 2006. History tells us that the housing sector will have problems until 2009-2010.

This trend will have major implications for the economy and financial markets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/22/07

Worried about a recession?

Don't be!

Why?

Because as soon as our leaders smell bad economic times ahead, they open the spigot and pour a lot of money in the markets.

Outcome?

Lower interest rates and rising stock prices.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/20/07

Comments from a reader

If the Fed follows the half point cut at the discount window with a fed funds rate cut on September 18th, will this action alone cause the dollar to fall further or cause a panic for the dollar?

Answer. Do not forget that the markets always win. You should not make decisions based on what the Fed will do.

Interest rates are collapsing right now. The rate on 13-week T. bills sagged below 3% (from a high close to 5%)!!!

The 10-year T. bond yields are also sinking from 5.2% to 4.62% as of this writing.

My point is that the markets respond promptly to emerging trends. Bureaucrats are always and consistently behind the curve.

My advice: follow the markets!

As far as the dollar is concerned I have been quite correct. For a completee discussion please read my The Peter Dag Portfolio.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Some thoughts about volatiltiy


The market volatility index (click on graph to enlarge) will have to go above 35 for the market to hit an important bottom.

As you can see in the above chart, the 35 level is crucial. Major bottoms have taken place when the index rose above this level.

In times like this one it pays to be patient.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/16/07

Comment from a reader

Re "catching falling knives", is it your experience that one waits for the trend to turn, ie don't try to catch bottoms?

Answer: YES! I like to wait for my indicators to tell me that the market is likely to move higher.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Comment from a reader

The market is headed for 12,500 and maybe 12,000 after breaking the neckline of a head and shoulders top. I would like to read opposing opinions.

My view is that you do not try to set levels in your mind that can be broken. In other words, do not try to catch a falling knife. My point is one should focus on trends, not levels.

Another thought. It is important to have a buying strategy. Investors sometime forget to have a selling or hedging strategy. It is just as important to protect your capital.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

What does the stock market say about interest rates?

According to my findings discussed below in great detail more than once, the decline in the stock market is anticipating much lower bond yields and higher bond prices.

Only then will the market attempt to find a bottom.

The markets are going to ease aggressively. The Fed has little relevance at this point.

We have these problems because the Maestro tried to find the solution to the 2000 market debacle. Let's hope they do not interfere with the markets. The distortions they create are painful, as we are experiencing.

The markets always do what they have done in the past. Lower stock prices are followed by lower interest rates. It is happening.

Treasury bills are plunging. They will be followed by lower bond yields.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/15/07

Comments from readers

What to do?

Why are we afraid to sell?

The markets are always right. T. bills are sinking precipitously. The markets are easing in spite of the Fed.

Protect your capital. This is rule number one in a down market. You can always buy later.

And above all, follow the indicators shown below. Strategy and timing are the key ingredients for financial survival.

By the way, concerned about your money market account?You may want to look at SHY. Talk about it with your financial advisor.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Is the market close to a bottom?


I like to follow my proprietary indicator. It signalled a top in May.

And now? It will become bullish when it starts rising.

Meanwhile, what can you do to minimize the pain? Raise some cash , slowly! I have been recommending this strategy to my readers for some time. You can always buy back the stocks you like once the situation has normalized.

Did you notice how well have bonds performed? See blogs below for the reason for this strength.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/10/07

Question from a reader

Question. Did the Fed not cut rates and inject liquidity all the way down from 2000-2002? Why do you believe this to be fail proof?

Answer. Lower short-term interest rates and increased liquidity never failed to support the financial markets. The issue is what kind of problems it will create if the Fed eases too aggressively as Greenspan did after the 2000 market peak.

The 2000-2002 easing is the main cause for the commodity boom and the collapse of the dollar.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

A simple rule that might help you


Trendlines are a simple tool, but at times like the current one could help us gain some perspective.

The above chart (click to enlarge) shows that the QQQQ broke the trendline on the downside after four months of trading above it. The correction should last about the same time.

When do you become positive?

The QQQQ is now trading below a down trending trendline. Watch for QQQQ breaking on the upside this trendline. This is a good time to start becoming positive.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/9/07

What am I learning in this market rout?

I am glad I am following my indicators in managing money. This is the reaosn I like a flexible investment strategy.

Start selling when my indicators are saying the market is too high. Start buying when the market is oversold.

Long-term investment strategies are great...but cause a lot of pain during times of market volatility.

Did you notice the bond market is outperforming stocks? (see blogs below on this subject).

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Crises are positive for stocks

Do not panic. Financial crises are great for stocks. These are the times when stocks bottom and rise sharply.

Why? Because central banks panic and inject huge amounts of liquidity in the banking system to cushion the economy from serious setbacks. And protect the lenders.

This is what is happening exactly at this point in time. The European Central Bank is putting Euros 130 billion in the economy to protect banks in crisis such as BNP. The Fed is also active. The Treasury is lending some of the huge cash receipts to primary Treasury bond brokers.

The global financial authorities are doing what they are supposed to be doing during crises. Flooding the markets with liquidity.

And yes, you guess it right. Liquidity is the lifeline of the stock market.

Be patient, a powerful move on the upside is just around the corner.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/8/07

What do I think about the Fed's decision?

Short-term interest rates will have to move higher.

Why? Short-term interest rates are too low. As in 2002-2004 when commodities were booming and the Fed lowered them to 1%.

Commodities and commodity sensitive stocks are soaring and the dollar is sinking. This is the classic picture associated with low interest rates.

I hope to be wrong. So far I have been right. I am deeply worried about the weakness of the dollar (and the strength of commodities).

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

8/3/07

Bond yields and stock prices

If you followed my discussion on the relationship between bond yields and stock prices in previous numerous blogs you would understand what is happening.

Stocks are declining and bond prices are rising. Exactly as I suggested in my analysis.

Investing is not about returns. It is about the probability you have to make money. And investing in bonds has been a high probability play in the past two months.

As long as stocks keep heading lower, bonds will be OK. Bonds will keep rising even after a substantial rise in stocks. See charts below on this site.

Stay tuned.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Question from a reader: Is this the time for the Fed to cut rates?

Answer: No.

The economy is robust enough to place upward pressure on prices. The CPI was up a strong 5.2% in the past three months at annual rate.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Are we at the peak of another credit cycle?

Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., a subprime mortgage lender that agreed in June to be acquired, said its survival is in doubt and that bankruptcy is possible, sending its shares down as much as 52.5 percent.

Accredited Home (down $2.93 to $5.28) shares plunged 38 percent in early afternoon trading on the Nasdaq, after earlier falling to $3.90. They traded as high as $47.82 last Aug. 4, according to Reuters.

The decline raised speculation that Accredited might need to renegotiate its June 4 agreement to be acquired by private equity firm Lone Star. That transaction valued Accredited at $400 million, equal to $15.10 per share.

The crisis continues. Will the market ignore these problems? Is there enough liquidity in the system to cushion the credit problems becoming increasingly more visible?

A few astute observers maintain we are at the peak of the credit cycle, as the S&L-based real estate boom and bust in the late 1980s and the tech bubble and bust in the late 1990? The high yield bond market, meanwhile, is tanking because of the selling pressure.

Beware of the Ides of August.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

7/28/07

Question about PE and bond yields

Question: Are not earning yields the inverse of PEs? If that is the case both are related except one is inversely related. Am I missing something?

The typical relationship I was referring to in a previous blog is the following.

The market rises when earning yields are greater than bond yields. I studied this relationship in depth and I did not find it reliable. There have been times, for instance, when earning yields were much greater than bond yields and the market performed poorly for a protracted period of time. Some analysts try to read too much in this relationship.

The relationship discussed in the blog below, on the other hand, is much simpler. It tells you whether the market is expensive or not. I find this second relationship more reliable keeping in mind it does not provide "buy" or "sell" signals.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

History repeats itself


Who says history does not repeat itself?

The graphs of the stock market and bond yields keep following the historical script (click on graph to enlarge). The trick is to know which part of history follows the script.

I told you (see previous blogs) the rise in bond yields will be followed by a market decline. We are in the process of experiencing this event.

I also told you that a peak in the S&P 500 was going to be followed by lower bond yields. This is exactly what is happening.

What next? The peak in bond yields will be followed by a bottom in stock prices.

For those of you who read my book Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets this is the typical relationship you should expect between a leading indicator (the stock market) and a lagging indicator (bond yields).

The market bottom will take place when our indicators will become even more oversold. We are getting there.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

7/27/07

Food for thought

If the dollar finds support at these levels we should expect:

a. Commodities to weaken (including gold).

b. Financial stocks to rally.

Time will tell.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

7/26/07

PE and bond yields .... they are related


PEs and bond yields are related. But please, forget the popular earning yields and bond yields relationship! They are not related and the relationship is totally useless in forecasting the stock market. Unless you can prove it to me, of course.

The enclosed chart (click on graph to enlarge) shows a different relationship between yields and PEs. The relationship is based on more than 20 years of historical data.

a. The range of S&P 500 PE rises when yields decline.

b. The range of S&P 500 PE declines when yields rise.

The chart shows that when yields are close to 5% (as they are now), the market PE has ranged between 16 and 40. In other words, history shows that the market is relatively cheap with the PE close to 18 at the current level of bond yields. Of course, you can still have sharp corrections caused by the disastrous policies of the Fed.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Stock prices and bond yields....a reliable relationship

If you peruse this site, I have been explaining the relationship between stock prices and bond yields for some time. I like it because it is a reliable one. This is an update of what I said it would happen ..... and is happening.

a. Rising bond yields are followed by stock market corrections. Yields on the 10-year bonds have been rising from 4.50% in February and are now close to 4.80%. The typical lead from the bottom in yields to the top in stocks is about 3-4 months. And what happened?

b. The stock market is decisively declining. This is good news because the rise in yields is having its historically reliable effect of being followed by a peak in stocks. What next?

c. The decline in stock prices is followed by lower bond yields (and stronger bond prices). This is exactly what is happening right now. The time has come to make money in bonds. What next?

d. The decline in bond yields will be followed by a bottom in stock prices. The on-going decline in bond yields suggests the decline in stock prices is having the historically reliable effect of pushing bond yields lower. The decline in bond yields means that the stage is being set for the next market bottom. The bottom will happen when investors despair about the future.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Let's thank the Maestro for the mess we are in

The financial system is in the process of unwinding the subprime craze.

Losses in the U.S. subprime mortgage market were worse than Standard & Poor's expectations, according to an official of the rating company (Source: Bloomberg).

Investors are not buying the repackaged subprime bonds. Credit is shutting down. Liquidity is decreasing. M&A activity is dwindling.

This is a classic bubble in the process of imploding. And we have to thank Mr. Greenspan for this experience.

He lowered interest rates to 1% to cushion the 1999-2000 equity bubble (that also happened under his reign). How could he think that 1% interest rates would not create distortions?

The moral of the story is that we have to be very careful in acclaiming the wisdom of many political operators. Investors will lose a lot of money. Banks will have troubles that are just being recognized. Homeowners will lose the house they thought they could afford.

We are now in the midst of a credit crunch with investors not supplying the liquidity for the system to function. Bonds are not bought because rating agencies did not see the problem. Banks are trying to sell them and need to cut prices. Low grade bond prices are falling sharply to attract investors. Losses are piling up. Equities are sold to raise needed liquidity.

We need to thank the Maestro for the fine mess we are in.

The good news is that crises create investment opportunities.

The typical answer from the Fed will be to inject liquidity in the banking system to keep the system functioning and to lower interest rates. Bonds and stocks will rally and the stage is set for the next bubble.

I am a firm believer the weakness, or strength, of the dollar is the only gauge telling the health of the American system. Let's hope is going to strength real soon.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977