11/1/07

A bearish forecast

Goldman Sachs, Wall Street’s most bullish investment bank on oil, on Tuesday turned negative on the short-term outlook for crude, recommending investors take profits after prices jumped to a record above $90 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell $2.73 to $90.80 a barrel in early trading in the US, partly in response to the warning from the investment bank, which has been influential on the oil market with upbeat price forecasts, including one in 2005 of a “super spike” in crude to $105 a barrel.

Jeffery Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said oil price “downside risks” were gaining momentum and he forecast a decline towards $80 a barrel in the first quarter of 2008.

This forecast, if correct, will coincide with my view of a possible broad market correction in the first quarter of 2008. Time will be tell.

Stay tuned.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

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