Peter Dag & Friends

8/6/11

Incredible

"China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," Xinhua (official China news agency)said.

This is incredible. They know full well that we borrow to buy their cheap goods because they keep/force/control their exchange rate. They keep it too low.

They do so, of course, to stimulate exports. The outcome, however, is that they have now huge amounts of US dollars.

The way to cure their problems is to let the Chinese currency revalue, thus discouraging foreign purchases of Chinese goods and reduce their holdings of US dollars.

Of course, they are not going to do it because their plants will become empty.

They are as guilty as we are.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

The end of an icon?

One thing is clear in the aftermath of the debt-limit debate: U.S. President Barack Obama has lost his glamour. The alluring icon of hope and change has become just another pol, derided by his supporters as well as his opponents. As one headline succinctly put it: “Obama succumbs to the ways of Washington.”

Most striking was how irrelevant the president seemed to the entire debate. Obama didn’t present his own alternative to the various congressional plans or make a case for a particular policy. When he tried to address the public, he came off as condescending, self-interested and detached. His pulpit proved anything but bully. (Source: Bloomberg)

I think he was elected, and received the Nobel prize, because he was a great speaker. He gave us hope and fascinated us with its eloquence.

Unfortunately, though, he did not have the experience in managing an enterprise or a state. He was not connected in Washington and let Pelosi run the show.

He became isolated even more. People are realizing that the king has no clothes.

Unfortunately for the country this is bad timing because we need a leader who gets out of the mess we are in.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

8/5/11

USA debt downgraded by S&P

"The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability." (Source: S&P)

My sense is that the market have largely discounted the news. Monday is going to be a lot of fun. The gyrations of the markets will be immense.

Should we thank Obama for all of this?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

8/4/11

An important indicator to follow

For more than 30 years I have researched and developed indicators to understand the trend of the market.

I finally have found one that has an impressive record. I call it "financial risk" indicator.

Its rise is associated will all the major bear markets. This gauge is reviewed in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio for my subscribers.

In these uncertain times you may want to see what is its current position. Why not subscribe now the The Peter Dag Portfolio?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Suggestion

There is only one way to deal with these uncertain economic times...Get educated about how the business cycle works...The data and their trends, properly interpreted, give you an important knowledge base on what to expect....Nothing is sure, of course, but some knowledge is better than no knowledge.

I am inviting you to spend some time and reviews my videos on www.peterdag.com. They deal with the business cycle and how the business cycle impacts the financial markets.

The material is part of my book Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets available now in China in mandarin.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Bad news

U.S. stock-index futures declined, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall for the eighth time in nine days, before a report on initial jobless claims that may add to concern about the economic recovery. (Source Bloomberg)

The markets are sharply lower early this morning. Mostly down in Asia. Commodities are weak. Yieds are declining. The risk-off trade is still on.

If you followed my videos on www.peterdag.com these trends mean only one thing. Weaker economic conditions.

Now that that Congress and the administration have done nothing in the past few months except creating a lot of anxiety, the financial markets seem to be addressing the problems in Europe and the possible recession in the US.

More on The Peter Dag Portfolio.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

8/3/11

Two big bulls

The seven-day slide that wiped out the 2011 gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is no reason to sell stocks, according to investors including Laszlo Birinyi and Barton Biggs. (Source: Bloomberg)

These two gurus are bullish. Let's hope they are right.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Observations

There are at least two ways of approaching the process of getting biologically older. They all depend on how you answer the question: Is this the time to cash in?

You played the game all your life. You could have done better. Nothing new. But you are satisfied. You are in good health and the time has come. You need to change and enjoy. Whatever that means. Stay warm (for us poor souls living in cold climates), seek new friends, and play golf.

Others do not feel comfortable with this idea. They keep searching, believing that “cashing in” is a different process. They look for a mental state different from what they experienced when they were active in business. The search is endless, and it may very well take them back to where they started.

I have been going through my search for some time. I have been reading about religions and various philosophical systems, trying to understand what other minds are thinking about our role and ultimate destination.

My experience is that the best answers are the simple ones. For this reason I have been attracted to Taoism, one of the oldest philosophical systems together with Confucianism. My escape is to read books on Taoism. They are mostly poor. But sometimes you find a gem.

Lately I read a book that was almost boring for its lack of depth. It dealt with the fact that we are all “connected”. The typical examples are that you are thinking about your son, and in that particular moment he calls. Or, you want to call a dear friend; you go out to get a cup of coffee and he comes in the same store. A few lines in the very last page of the book rewarded me for enduring the verbosity of the text.

All of us think we have a vision of the “truth”. But the real truth is that we will never be able to fully grasp what is boundless, infinite, and eternal. Assuming we actually live in an infinite, boundless, and eternal system. Assuming that what we see and experience actually exists. And we know for a fact that this is not the case.

Each one of us is trying from his/her vantage point, searching for an answer from a very personal perspective, looking through an irrelevant keyhole.

Maybe the answer is provided by all our efforts. Maybe the answer is the search itself, knowing all too well that what we find cannot be the truth.

I am just realizing, as I write, that this is the essence of Taoism. The realization that nothing exists. And the process of searching is the exercise we have to endure to awaken our mind. To find … nothing.

(This Observations appeared in the issue of 1/28/02 of The Peter Dag Portfolio)

8/2/11

The big fish eats the small fish

Greek banks should look at mergers with foreign lenders to help them tap market funding and shouldn’t rush to reduce their reliance on the European Central Bank, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

“Further bank consolidation could be one option to increase access to market liquidity,” the Paris-based OECD said in a report today. “Managers and shareholders should, however, explore the option of partnerships or mergers with foreign banks.” (Source: Bloomberg)

History is made by the strong power groups prevailing over the weak ones. Eventually the weak power groups lose their identity.

Power becomes concentrated in fewer hands. This is how history works, This is how the markets always prevail. There is no conspiracy. It is just how things work.

The people of Egypt are still waiting for the magic solution that makes them happy. It is not going to happen because power is too concentrated. Why should they give it up? Too many weak people. Too few strong people.

In any culture in any place and time, the growth of a country depends on the pervasiveness and reach of the government and by the concentration of power.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

8/1/11

Double dip?

The ISM report for manufacturing was dismal. Those of you who read my The Peter Dag Portfolio should not be surprised.

Forget about the budget deficit. The economy seems to be in dire conditions. Mr. Obama and Congress what are you going to do about it?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.