This indicator spells recession
Business sales peaked in July 2014 (see above chart, shaded areas indicate recessions).
The decline in business sales is forcing manufacturers to cut production to keep inventories in line with declining sales. One of the main reasons for recessions to happen is the need of business to correct inventory imbalances.
The outcome is going to be weak commodities, stable or lower bond yields, and poor earning growth.
The business cycle is alive and well.
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George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
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