Observations

There have been wars in the Middle East for decades with no foreseeable end. They are expanding again with ugly nuances (global terrorism). No solutions are in sight. What is the problem?

“We are in the early stages of what I would describe as the third world war,” Mr. Gingrich states. He is a superb thinker, so we must listen carefully to what he is saying. It implies the total destruction of the enemy, a feat still going on right now in the Middle East.

A Financial Times columnist suggests, however, the struggle between western capitalism and Islamism may end up looking a lot more like the cold war between the West and the Soviet Union.

Military action was not the solution then and was never employed to any meaningful degree against the Soviets. In those days the threat came from Soviet missiles. Now from poor religious fanatics and terrorists.

Communism eventually imploded because its economic system was obsolete and could not compete with that of the West. We won peacefully because our system was producing more wealth. This is a concept convincingly and scholarly stated in the two books The Rise and Fall of Great Powers and in The Birth of Plenty.

We are solving the wrong problem, which has been defined in religious terms. The current solution is to assert religious rights with whatever means. Destroy and kill. Kill and destroy, reminiscing the Dark Ages of man.

If you define the problem, however, as caused by desperate poverty, then the solution is totally different. Why don’t our leaders realize they are pursuing the solution to the wrong problem?

We have to invest money to build wealth in the region. Not to destroy and kill. War creates hate. We need to help the Middle Eastern people because they are poor and to assist them with the necessary infrastructures. Their history shows convincingly they do not know how.

They are desperately poor. Desperate people act desperately. Let’s show them the benefits of wealth. The Muslims in the USA and India understand this idea. Let’s try to solve the real problem and achieve peace!

(This Observations appeared in the 8-14-2006 issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio ).

George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager

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