What is amazing in the current environment is the range of outlooks for the market and the economy. I closely follow the views of all what are believed to be the smartest people.
One set of strategist points to stronger growth of the economy and profits for the rest of the year with the equity market climbing until the end of the year.
The other set of strategists predicts doom and gloom based on the incapacity of the global system to get out of its dismal predicament.
What to do? Forecasts are unreliable by definition. Otherwise they would not be forecast. I look at the relationships between the economy and the markets. What happens now is what really matters. I also keep in place a strategy to protect my capital on the downside. The worst thing that can happen to you is to work hard to recover your losses.
I let my indicators tell me what to do and the degree of risk. I base my strategy on what they are telling me. Right now they are telling me to enjoy my profits and be careful and be ready to use my defensive strategy.
George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager
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