The more I read, study, research history and look carefully and honestly at my personal experience I am forced to reach an unquestionable and hard-to-believe conclusion.
No one can forecast. No one has a much better than 50% chance of being correct. This is the hard reality. I will discuss in more detail this issue in one of my next Observations.
The challenge is then .... what to do? What should investors do to develop an investment strategy to manage risk if you do not know what is going to happen?
The answer: Decision making under uncertainty is a well developed body of knowledge and games theory is part of that body.
More, much more details in The Peter Dag Portfolio - Strategy and Management.
George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager
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STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES.
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