With all the economic and financial crosscurrents it is important, in my view, to keep an eye on the business cycle and its impact on various asset classes.
1. The US economy is downshifting and may be already in a recession.
2. Europe is in a serious recession.
3. Commodities are declining across the board because of the weakness in production and bulging inventories in the US and Europe (50% of the global economy).
4. Inflation is steadily declining and may turn out to become deflation in the US.
5. Yields are declining because of declining inflation and commodities.
6. Commodity sensitive stocks are going nowhere since 2011 because of the trend of commodities and industrial sector.
7. A large number of stocks keep climbing with low volatility. They are listed in our “Watch List” on page 4 of “The Peter Dag Portfolio”.
8. Our model portfolios reflect these trends.
These investment themes and specific recommendations are discussed in great detail in the latest issue of “The Peter Dag Portfolio”.
George Dagnino, PhD Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio.
Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
Portfolio manager
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