Complacency?

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, fell 6.3 percent to 15.45 as of 4:15 p.m. in New York. That’s below the prior 2010 closing low of 15.58 on April 12, and the lowest closing level since July 2007. The index measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, which rose 0.3 percent and moved in a 0.35 percentage-point range between today’s intraday high and low, less than half the 0.83 average over the past four weeks.

The problem with these kind of indicators (like investors' optimism) is that they can stay at extreme levels during major moves on the upside or the downside.

Sometime they work. Sometime they don't. It's all hindsight.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked second best gold timer by Timer Digest

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