Does it matter?

Fed Efforts to Revive Economy Find Critics (NYT).

My sense is that if they knew what they were doing we would not be in this mess. The best assumption from an investment viewpoint is not to pay attention to what they are saying or doing. It really does not matter,

They know history very well. They wrote great research papers. They speak eloquently. It does not matter. History keeps repeating, or so it seems, with all these famous scholars at the helm. It is so tragic that it is almost funny.

This century has been plastered by long periods of recessions, inflation, soaring interest rates (the 1970s), depressions (the 1930s) and bubbles (1998-2010). Just count the number of years we had to navigate difficult times and then you see we had more "bad" times than "good" times (1982-1998).

Then what to do? Watch carefully the trend of short-term interest rates.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked best market timer in the 12 and 6 months ending 8/20/10 by Timer Digest

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