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Zero chances of double dip according to this graph showing the probability of recession (click on the chart to enlarge it) (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas).
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 and 2010 by Timer Digest
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2 comments:
Neftci might rule out a double-dip recession, but I'm not sure it rules out the current single-dip lasting for several more scoops (to continue the ice cream parlor metaphor).
The recession ended last summer. The economy has been growing since then. That we like it or not. Often investors lose their objectivity by relying on emotions rather than facts. It is a fact the economy is strong and earnings are strong and the market is strong. The economy will weaken...no doubt about it. We should worry about that event when the data suggest it is happening.
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