This is an interesting chart from Birinyi (click on the chart to enlarge it).
The bottom line is that the market peaks only after a protracted period of rising short-term interest rates.
My rule of thumb is to start being cautious after 2-3 months of rising short-term interest rates. The peak of the market depends of many other factors. For more details see The Peter Dag Portfolio and my book Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 and 2010 by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.
I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.
Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.
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History of the US Financial system in 10 minutes---
I updated the list below from a December post I did and got a bunch of good comments....so chime in, if there are important things I missed, please comment and I will add.
For me the little summary below was a great "view from 20,000 feet". Imagine that....less than 200 years ago, the British were rampaging through Washington with troops and burning the White House
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/10-minute-chronology-of-important-us.html
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