Wien, hired by Blackstone Group LP last month, said he’s keeping his January forecast for a 33 percent annual gain in the benchmark index for U.S. equities, implying a 13 percent advance from yesterday’s close. NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy faces an increasing risk of stalled growth in 2010, the chief executive of top bond fund Pimco said on Friday, adding that rallies in the equity and bond markets have outpaced economic trends. The summer rally in equity markets and lower-quality bonds has outpaced what is warranted on the basis of forward-looking indicators for demand, revenue, profits and credit flows, El-Erian said.
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the 1930s is restoring Byron Wien’s reputation as a stock picker.
My point. Two of the smartest people see the world in very different ways. I look at the trend in commodities and it does not seem commodities are soaring. Gold is back down below $1000. Crude is sharply lower at $67. The CRB index is below the June peak. Historically earnings and commodities are closely related.
Of course, I hope Mr. Wien is right. He usually is.
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