1/31/08

It's not over

Bad news.

Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., the largest U.S. bond guarantors, led declines after Fitch Ratings revoked its top ranking on Financial Guaranty Insurance Co.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index had climbed as much as 1.7 percent following the Fed's decision to lower its benchmark lending rate to 3 percent from 3.5 percent to help the economy avert a recession.

Financial stocks seems attactive at these levels, but financial risk is still rising according to my model.

More on https://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/27/08

Down 300, up 600 ....Implications?

The financial markets are nervous because they do not know what they do not know (I know, I said it before, but I love this sentence).

Investors believe we are getting close to more stable markets because the Fed is cutting rates. But many are nervous because they feel the Fed has lost its bearing (in navigational sense).

The sharp moves up reflect heavy buying. The sellers, however, are waiting in line.

Bottom line: too much uncertainty. It is not wise to sail with full sails when there is a storm.

More on https://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/26/08

What happened to Federer happens to all great nations

When you become rich, powerful, and famous you lose the will the fight. You become content.

Until the next hungry competitor shows up and teaches you what is the will to fight ... and win.

George Dagnino

There is something I do not understand

Who is the candidate for the presidency -- Bill or Hillary Clinton?

Or both?

George Dagnino

1/23/08

Update on financial risk

Our measure of financial risk is still heading higher in spite of the 75 bp decline in the fed funds rate.

The message is that we are not yet out of the woods. The unwinding of bad credit is still in full swing. And this is bad news for the financial markets.

More on https://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Too late

As I mentioned several times, the Fed demonstrated to be tentative and too late. The credit problems (derivatives, debt of various types) have been accumulating and now (finally) captured the attention of the Fed.

The Fed is playing catch up. This is what the markets are sensing, and they do not like it. What the Fed lacked in timing -- policy makers were seriously behind the curve -- it tried to make up for in size.

Credit risk is still rising, and this is the bad news overhanging the financial markets. Other indicators we follow are still not giving the green light.

The Fed will have to keep easing until credit risk starts declining. Only then will the markets respond positively.

More on https://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/22/08

What is going on?

What is going on is not about a recession in the US.

What is going in the markets is about credit risk. No doubt about it.

The Peter Dag Portfolio developed an indicator measuring credit risk with a solid batting average. The credit crisis is far from over.

More on https://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

The markets always win

The Fed should not lower interest rates, but they will (see blog below).

I always maintained that markets move together, and they are -- from China to Sydney, to Paris, to New York. When you buy foreign markets you buy volatility. I have been saying this over and over again in my talks.

Commodities move together. The commodity complex is going down from copper, to zinc, to gold, to wheat. It is ridiculous to think that interest rates decline and commodities will not. I show the evidence in my talks and in The Peter Dag Portfolio. See also my presentations posted on the home page at https://www.peterdag.com/.

The American business slowdown will be accompanied by a global slowdown as documented in The Peter Dag Portfolio. The global business cycle is and will continue to be perfectly synchronized.

The central banks are irrelevant. The markets are forcing their hands in a major way.

The conventional wisdom is being proven dead wrong.

The business cycle is alive and well. The markets are behaving exactly as they should.

More on https://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/21/08

Should the Fed ease?

The answer is yes, of course. A weak economy needs lower interest rates to keep it going. There are some risks, however. This is the other side of the argument.

Meltzer, who is finishing the second volume of his history of the Federal Reserve, warns that Bernanke is risking a disastrous replay of the 1970s, when high oil prices fueled double-digit inflation.

Every time the Fed started to tighten and unemployment jumped, chairmen G. William Miller and Arthur Burns lost their nerve. They lowered rates to boost job growth, and inflation inevitably revived, causing a vicious price spiral.

The Fed let the disease rage for so long (in the 1970s) that it took draconian action by chairman Paul Volcker in the early 1980s to finally defeat inflation. The price was a deep recession, with unemployment hitting 11% in 1982.

"The mentality is the same as in the 1970s," says Meltzer. "'As soon as we get rid of the risk of recession, we'll do something about inflation.' But that comes too late."

The point is that if the Fed eases too aggressively inflation will rise out of control and cause the economy to become more unstable with even more frequent recessions and bear markets as from 1968 to 1982 when the stock market failed to appreciate for about 15 years.

What to do? It is crucial to maintain a flexible investment strategy. Buy and hold is likely to produce below average results.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/20/08

Credit crisis is spreading

Borrowing by euro zone businesses and consumers is being hit severely as the global economic outlook darkens, according to a European Central Bank survey released on Friday that could act as an additional deterrent to further rises in official interest rates.

The sharp tightening in the credit standards applied by banks and a decline in demand for loans, especially by large businesses and house buyers, suggest that the global financial turmoil and fallout from the US slowdown are having a significant impact on the 15-country euro zone.

The ECB and the Fed will be forced to inject much more liquidity in the financial system. The global economy, meanwhile, will keep slowing down. Interest rates will continue declining. Commodities will follow the trend of interest rates, as they always do,

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/18/08

Watch high-yield bonds

High-yield bond prices are plunging. The financial crisis is not over.

This is bad news for the financial markets. These bonds have to stabilize for the global equity markets to stop sinking. We are not there yet.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/17/08

Financial risk update

Bad news. Our measure of financial risk is rising. As shown in The Peter Dag Portfolio, rising risk is bad news for financial assets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/15/08

An interesting excerpt from the Financial Times

If this had been a mere subprime crisis, it would now be over. But it is not, and nor will it be over soon. The reason is that several other pockets of the credit market are also vulnerable. Credit cards are one such segment, similar in size to the subprime market. Another is credit default swaps, relatively modern financial instruments that allow bondholders to insure against default. Those who such sell such protection receive a quarterly premium, based on a percentage of the amount insured.

The CDS market is worth about $45,000bn (€30,500bn, £23,000bn). This is not an easy figure to imagine. It is more than three times the annual gross domestic product of the US. Economically, credit default swaps are insurance. But legally, they are not, which is why this market is largely unregulated.

Technically, they are swaps: two parties swap payments streams – one pays a regular premium for protection, the other pays up in case of default. At a time of low insolvency rates, many investors used to consider the selling of protection as a fairly risk-free way of generating a steady stream of income. But as insolvency rates go up, so will be the payment obligations under the CDS contracts. If insolvencies reach a certain level, one would expect some protection sellers to default on their obligations.

So the general health of this market crucially depends on the rate of insolvencies. This in turn depends on the economy.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

This is what really bothers me

Are we missing the boat? Do we really think that what we are facing is just the sub-prime debacle caused by the sagging housing sector?

Or is it the beginning of the implosion of the leveraged derivatives complex?

What if the unwinding of credit wipes out not only the housing sector (that is just the appetizer), but our savings and the value of all other assets?

Why? Because investors will be forced to liquidate their holdings to repay their debt obligations.

Does it sound scary? What if, let me just repeat, what if this is going to happen? What is your strategy?

This is exactly what is going on in my brain right now. What is my strategy? How can I protect my assets from the general collapse of "value"?

Just think about it. What is going on out there is simply scary. Markets that gyrates more than 2% in just one day around the globe. I have never seen anything like it.

The markets are scared because they do not know what they do not know and might happen next. And what they do not know might be something big.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/12/08

Financial risk keeps moving higher

Whatever the Fed is doing is not working!

As of today financial risk, as measured by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc., is still rising. In other words, our credit problems are getting worse, not better.

This is bad news for the economy and the financial markets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/11/08

The markets always win

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he has resolved months of debate over the competing risks of slower growth and faster inflation, and is ready to make deeper interest-rate cuts.

Bernanke yesterday pledged ``substantive additional action'' to insure against ``downside risks'' to the six-year economic expansion.

Bottom line. The markets always win. The rate on Treasury bills (driven by the markets) is too low (close to 3%). The Fed is way behind the curve by keeping the fed funds rate at 4.25%.

Besides, financial risk keeps rising and the Fed will have to continue easing as long this is the prevailing trend. The markets always win.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

No decoupling

China's trade surplus narrowed for a second month as export growth slowed, signaling that the fastest economic expansion in 13 years may have peaked.

The surplus for December shrank to $22.7 billion from $26.2 billion in November, the Chinese customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today, lower than the $24.4 billion median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Bottom line. Slower growth in the USA and Europe will be a drag for the emerging economies. Can their markets "decouple"? I doubt it.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/8/08

Good news and bad news

Good news: short-term interest rates and bond yields on Treasuries are declining.

Bad news: credit spreads and yields on high yield bonds are rising.

It is the bad news that are dragging the market down. They will provide the clue for the bottom.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/7/08

Short-term interest rates to fall

Federal Reserve officials signaled they are now as concerned about a faltering economy as they are about stability in financial markets.

Central bankers anticipated growth that was ``somewhat more sluggish'' than their previous estimate, according to minutes of the Dec. 11 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released yesterday. Policy makers cited weaker consumer spending and the ``deeper and more prolonged'' housing slump.

The remarks suggest the Fed has more incentive to continue reducing interest rates after cutting the benchmark rate by 1 percentage point. Reports since the committee met showed manufacturing shrank last month and new-home sales in November were the worst in 12 years. Until now, the Fed's strategy was aimed at preventing the credit squeeze from hurting the broader economy.

The markets always win! The Fed always lag the markets, that's why they create problems.

Do not agree? Why then did not they avoid the 2000-2002 market debacle and the housing bubble with high interest rates?

Because their human weaknesses in making decisions prevail in spite of all their PhD's at their service.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/6/08

An interesting view I found surfing the web....Food for thought

...... Life is extremely different here in Western Europe, quite dramatically so from Great Britain with its more "Anglo" economic model, even though London is only two hours away on the Eurostar train through the Channel Tunnel.

For financial high-flyers, the Anglo-American model offers more fast-and-loose opportunities for money-making, no doubt about it.

But for people in the know - including a large number of ex-Americans who have been quietly evacuating to Western Continental Europe with their money for several years (like myself, ex-banker, evacuated US in '04) - daily life in Continental Western Europe is much better and sweeter, precisely thanks to the strong social welfare and worker protection systems.

It's actually even a nicer life for rich people here, who appreciate the lower stress levels and more gracious life around them. Most people accept that there is a trade-off in this kind of managed capitalism, we have less opportunity and economic mobility, but daily life is sweeter and richer in the small ways that count.

And there are endless benefits from the fact that there is essentially no poverty, everyone has health care, nearly everyone can have a beer at the corner café, and one isn't worried about one's neighbours undergoing massive devastation as is the case inside the USA.

Interestingly, visiting Americans often miss how sweet life really is in this managed and more restricted capitalist system, because they don't "stop to smell the roses" in the Continental style, and because they see people in Europe driving smaller cars, not realising that here, cars are un-needed toys, and here millionaires often drive small cars because they are easier to park and have an understated image.

Moreover, the pleasant state of life in Western Europe is obscured and hidden by collusion of the pro-neo-liberal media powers, and by portions of the local greedy elite here in Europe as well, who are trying to import the Anglo-American cultures of longer work hours, trying to chip away at the workers' social protections, and also trying to hide the sweetness of life in this part of the world where aspects of "socialism" work pretty well.

In fact it's a better life here even for such rich people as are non-obsessed with unlimited acquisition, but the neo-liberal media supervisors don't want the joys of quasi-socialism to become well-known. Some of the elites here on the Continent are tied to the Anglo-American elites, and they truly want to introduce the rougher Anglo-American system, but these elites are stymied by the fact that common people here retain an old-fashioned face-to-face political rebelliousness. Here, people assemble quickly, and are ready to call a general strike and storm the Bastille again if necessary. Here, people aren't so beaten down and fearful like common Americans have become in recent years.

And this is of great relevance now for any scenario of world economic collapse and crisis. Under the social compact that, though battered, still stands here in Continental Western Europe, we are all rather somewhat in the boat with each other, and for whatever crunch times lie ahead, we realise we will all be sharing its costs and that we need to see that the humblest people have a minimum of decent resources, even if the gross economy is in a struggle.

The Western European social model really has been the better of capitalism, despite not having produced fill-tilt hedge fund and structured-finance mania. Maybe at the end of this recession-depression tunnel, some of the people currently suffering under the neo-liberal regimes will realise that a better model was there all along.

1/3/08

Financial risk and stock prices

Financial risk has been rising since mid-2007. It is no coincidence the market has done poorly since then.

Lower grade bond yields are too high relative to those on Treasuries. This spread will have to decline for the market to resume its upward trend.

The current downtrend in short-term interest rates and bond yields will add to the reasons why stocks should move higher.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977