1/15/08

An interesting excerpt from the Financial Times

If this had been a mere subprime crisis, it would now be over. But it is not, and nor will it be over soon. The reason is that several other pockets of the credit market are also vulnerable. Credit cards are one such segment, similar in size to the subprime market. Another is credit default swaps, relatively modern financial instruments that allow bondholders to insure against default. Those who such sell such protection receive a quarterly premium, based on a percentage of the amount insured.

The CDS market is worth about $45,000bn (€30,500bn, £23,000bn). This is not an easy figure to imagine. It is more than three times the annual gross domestic product of the US. Economically, credit default swaps are insurance. But legally, they are not, which is why this market is largely unregulated.

Technically, they are swaps: two parties swap payments streams – one pays a regular premium for protection, the other pays up in case of default. At a time of low insolvency rates, many investors used to consider the selling of protection as a fairly risk-free way of generating a steady stream of income. But as insolvency rates go up, so will be the payment obligations under the CDS contracts. If insolvencies reach a certain level, one would expect some protection sellers to default on their obligations.

So the general health of this market crucially depends on the rate of insolvencies. This in turn depends on the economy.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

This is what really bothers me

Are we missing the boat? Do we really think that what we are facing is just the sub-prime debacle caused by the sagging housing sector?

Or is it the beginning of the implosion of the leveraged derivatives complex?

What if the unwinding of credit wipes out not only the housing sector (that is just the appetizer), but our savings and the value of all other assets?

Why? Because investors will be forced to liquidate their holdings to repay their debt obligations.

Does it sound scary? What if, let me just repeat, what if this is going to happen? What is your strategy?

This is exactly what is going on in my brain right now. What is my strategy? How can I protect my assets from the general collapse of "value"?

Just think about it. What is going on out there is simply scary. Markets that gyrates more than 2% in just one day around the globe. I have never seen anything like it.

The markets are scared because they do not know what they do not know and might happen next. And what they do not know might be something big.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/12/08

Financial risk keeps moving higher

Whatever the Fed is doing is not working!

As of today financial risk, as measured by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc., is still rising. In other words, our credit problems are getting worse, not better.

This is bad news for the economy and the financial markets.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/11/08

The markets always win

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he has resolved months of debate over the competing risks of slower growth and faster inflation, and is ready to make deeper interest-rate cuts.

Bernanke yesterday pledged ``substantive additional action'' to insure against ``downside risks'' to the six-year economic expansion.

Bottom line. The markets always win. The rate on Treasury bills (driven by the markets) is too low (close to 3%). The Fed is way behind the curve by keeping the fed funds rate at 4.25%.

Besides, financial risk keeps rising and the Fed will have to continue easing as long this is the prevailing trend. The markets always win.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

No decoupling

China's trade surplus narrowed for a second month as export growth slowed, signaling that the fastest economic expansion in 13 years may have peaked.

The surplus for December shrank to $22.7 billion from $26.2 billion in November, the Chinese customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today, lower than the $24.4 billion median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Bottom line. Slower growth in the USA and Europe will be a drag for the emerging economies. Can their markets "decouple"? I doubt it.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/8/08

Good news and bad news

Good news: short-term interest rates and bond yields on Treasuries are declining.

Bad news: credit spreads and yields on high yield bonds are rising.

It is the bad news that are dragging the market down. They will provide the clue for the bottom.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/7/08

Short-term interest rates to fall

Federal Reserve officials signaled they are now as concerned about a faltering economy as they are about stability in financial markets.

Central bankers anticipated growth that was ``somewhat more sluggish'' than their previous estimate, according to minutes of the Dec. 11 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released yesterday. Policy makers cited weaker consumer spending and the ``deeper and more prolonged'' housing slump.

The remarks suggest the Fed has more incentive to continue reducing interest rates after cutting the benchmark rate by 1 percentage point. Reports since the committee met showed manufacturing shrank last month and new-home sales in November were the worst in 12 years. Until now, the Fed's strategy was aimed at preventing the credit squeeze from hurting the broader economy.

The markets always win! The Fed always lag the markets, that's why they create problems.

Do not agree? Why then did not they avoid the 2000-2002 market debacle and the housing bubble with high interest rates?

Because their human weaknesses in making decisions prevail in spite of all their PhD's at their service.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

1/6/08

An interesting view I found surfing the web....Food for thought

...... Life is extremely different here in Western Europe, quite dramatically so from Great Britain with its more "Anglo" economic model, even though London is only two hours away on the Eurostar train through the Channel Tunnel.

For financial high-flyers, the Anglo-American model offers more fast-and-loose opportunities for money-making, no doubt about it.

But for people in the know - including a large number of ex-Americans who have been quietly evacuating to Western Continental Europe with their money for several years (like myself, ex-banker, evacuated US in '04) - daily life in Continental Western Europe is much better and sweeter, precisely thanks to the strong social welfare and worker protection systems.

It's actually even a nicer life for rich people here, who appreciate the lower stress levels and more gracious life around them. Most people accept that there is a trade-off in this kind of managed capitalism, we have less opportunity and economic mobility, but daily life is sweeter and richer in the small ways that count.

And there are endless benefits from the fact that there is essentially no poverty, everyone has health care, nearly everyone can have a beer at the corner café, and one isn't worried about one's neighbours undergoing massive devastation as is the case inside the USA.

Interestingly, visiting Americans often miss how sweet life really is in this managed and more restricted capitalist system, because they don't "stop to smell the roses" in the Continental style, and because they see people in Europe driving smaller cars, not realising that here, cars are un-needed toys, and here millionaires often drive small cars because they are easier to park and have an understated image.

Moreover, the pleasant state of life in Western Europe is obscured and hidden by collusion of the pro-neo-liberal media powers, and by portions of the local greedy elite here in Europe as well, who are trying to import the Anglo-American cultures of longer work hours, trying to chip away at the workers' social protections, and also trying to hide the sweetness of life in this part of the world where aspects of "socialism" work pretty well.

In fact it's a better life here even for such rich people as are non-obsessed with unlimited acquisition, but the neo-liberal media supervisors don't want the joys of quasi-socialism to become well-known. Some of the elites here on the Continent are tied to the Anglo-American elites, and they truly want to introduce the rougher Anglo-American system, but these elites are stymied by the fact that common people here retain an old-fashioned face-to-face political rebelliousness. Here, people assemble quickly, and are ready to call a general strike and storm the Bastille again if necessary. Here, people aren't so beaten down and fearful like common Americans have become in recent years.

And this is of great relevance now for any scenario of world economic collapse and crisis. Under the social compact that, though battered, still stands here in Continental Western Europe, we are all rather somewhat in the boat with each other, and for whatever crunch times lie ahead, we realise we will all be sharing its costs and that we need to see that the humblest people have a minimum of decent resources, even if the gross economy is in a struggle.

The Western European social model really has been the better of capitalism, despite not having produced fill-tilt hedge fund and structured-finance mania. Maybe at the end of this recession-depression tunnel, some of the people currently suffering under the neo-liberal regimes will realise that a better model was there all along.

1/3/08

Financial risk and stock prices

Financial risk has been rising since mid-2007. It is no coincidence the market has done poorly since then.

Lower grade bond yields are too high relative to those on Treasuries. This spread will have to decline for the market to resume its upward trend.

The current downtrend in short-term interest rates and bond yields will add to the reasons why stocks should move higher.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

12/29/07

Stock prices and short-term interest rates

I reviewed again the historical relationship between the stock market and short-term interest rates.

Conclusions?

1. Investors have to be cautious following a cyclical bottom in short-term interest rates.

2. The markets is very likely to move higher following a decline of a few months in short-term interest rates.

I will show you the graphs from 1955 in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

How do you use this information?

First of all you need to have an entry and exit strategy. Then, play the odds.

More on http://www.peterdag.com/.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977