Make no mistake about it. We are in a recession according to the above important measure - capital investment in new capacity and machinery. (Shaded areas indicate recessions).
Without capital investment the economy cannot grow. It stagnates and contracts. See the above chart.
Business is confused by the class war (people vs. bureaucracy) around the world. They are being careful about how they spend their money.
This is the reason that when capex declines for so many months the economy is in a recession and more often than not you have a bear market in stocks and a strong bond market.
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George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
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