We are in a recession

Make no mistake about it. We are in a recession according to the above important measure - capital investment in new capacity and machinery. (Shaded areas indicate recessions).

Without capital investment the economy cannot grow. It stagnates and contracts. See the above chart. 

Business is confused by the class war (people vs. bureaucracy) around the world. They are being careful about how they spend their money.

This is the reason that when capex declines for so many months the economy is in a recession and more often than not you have a bear market in stocks and a strong bond market.

Investment implications are discussed in depth in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage my timely update of this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Since 1977 
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

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