The red line shows the shape of the yield curve. The yield curve keeps flattening (the red line is declining).
Note: peaks and bottoms in the yield curve lead by several months peaks and bottoms of consumer spending (blue line).
Bottom line - because of the flattening of the yield curve the odds favor a major slowdown in consumer spending.
Implications - weak commodities, lower EPS, stable or lower Treasury bond yields, and stocks going nowhere at best.
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George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
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