Outlook for gold


Long-term outlook. Since May 2011 I have been writing in The Peter Dag Portfolio that gold had peaked.

Two reasons. The first one - GLD spiked with heavy volume. Second reason - gold is a metal, a commodity. My outlook for commodities has been "down" because of the weak global economy and when the economy is weak commodities are weak.

Near-term outlook. I love to see the patterns as in the above chart. Heavy bursts of volume with rising prices is an inevitable a near-term top. See for instance what happened August, May and January 2015. The 200dma represents also an important resistance.

But heavy volume with a sinking prce suggests a near-term bottom.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977

Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

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