Are we heading for a recession?

 

The above graph shows the growth of industrial output year-on-year.

Industrial output declined for the second straight month - flat in the past 12 months. Growth is slowing down quite rapidly (see graph).

This is the main reason commodities are weak - all of them from gold to oil to lumber to zinc - as I discuss in great detail in The Peter Dag Portfolio.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

A very bearish indicator

 

The above graph shows an uncanny indicator. It has been very timely and reliable in signaling the beginning of bear markets.

A rise in this gauge above zero reflects bearish market conditions for equities. See, for instance, what happened in 2007.

I will discuss in detail this indicator and tell my readers what it is and how is computed in the next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You cannot afford to ignore its meaning and strategic implications.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Is the market too high?

 

No, according to this gauge. There is more room on the upside. But before you decide which way the market is going to go, make sure you check our proven indicators.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

We are in a recession - no doubt about it!

 

 

We are in a recession. Just look at the trends in the above chart (click it to enlarge it). I will discuss them in detail in my next issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Scary! And the Fed is still telling us the economy is ok and they want to push interest rates higher. Incredible.

I have been writing about it for months.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Deflation!

 

I have been predicting deflation for some time in my The Peter Dag Portfolio. And now all the recent data suggest we are at the beginning of this dangerous development (see above chart). Dangerous for business and all of us.

Producer prices were down -4.1% y/y.
Consumer prices were down -0.03% y/y.
Prices of the broad PCE were down -0.1% y/y.

Now you understand why major corporations are cutting costs (people). Sales are not rising because of lower prices. Margins are shrinking.

If people find it harder to find jobs they cannot buy goods and services. Consumption grew at a meager 0.1% in September. And business will keep cutting costs due to lower sales and profits.

The business cycle will continue to slow down. A vicious cycle. Risky times ahead. Be careful.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

The current phase of the business cycle

 

Where are we in the current phase of the business cycle?

The growth of the economy peaked in 2011 (end of Phase 2). Since 2011 we have been in Phase 3. Beginning in 2015 the real economy started sliding into Phase 4, characterized by very slow growth. Possibly a recession.

Why do we care about trying to understand what is happening to the business cycle?

The growth of the economy has an enormous and defining impact on the prices of all asset classes - from gold to equities to any commodity to bond yields.

Since 2011 investments in commodities, commodity-sensitive investments/stocks, gold or any hard asset has provided very poor returns.

The returns have been generated by staples, healthcare, discretionary, REITs, bonds 

This is exactly what you should expect during any business cycle. The time to invest in real assets and commodity-sensitive investment is when the economy moves from Phase 1 to Phase 2 as it did in 2009-2011.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

This is not the way to run a ship!

 

 

Incredible! The largest contribution to Q3 economic growth was ......healthcare (via ZeroHedge).

We cannot generate high paying quality jobs if we keep ignoring the real engines of growth. What is happening to private enterprise, education, high-productivity investments, engineering, sciences, math.....?

Are we going to become all nurses and doctors working for an insurance company and government?

I am really confused!

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Outlook for gold

 

Long-term outlook. Since May 2011 I have been writing in The Peter Dag Portfolio that gold had peaked.

Two reasons. The first one - GLD spiked with heavy volume. Second reason - gold is a metal, a commodity. My outlook for commodities has been "down" because of the weak global economy and when the economy is weak commodities are weak.

Near-term outlook. I love to see the patterns as in the above chart. Heavy bursts of volume with rising prices is an inevitable a near-term top. See for instance what happened August, May and January 2015. The 200dma represents also an important resistance.

But heavy volume with a sinking prce suggests a near-term bottom.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

This is bad news

"Total Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to be down -5.7% from the same period last year on an equal decline in revenues. This would follow the -2.1% decline in earnings on -6.4% lower revenues in the preceding quarter."

This outlook from Zacks is bad news and reinforces my idea the economy is slowing down to dangerous levels. It may even force the hand of our leaders to come up with some sort of stimulus not tried yet.

Stay tuned. 

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Is a recession around the corner?

 

Sales are growing much slower than inventories. Business will have to cut further production to cut inventories in line with the slow growth in sales.

This is the recipe for a recession. More details in the latest issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.
Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Are we heading into a recession?

In spite of all the good news growth remains anemic. Productivity is growing at less than 1.0%, placing a cap on the expansion.

US manufacturing is still stagnant according to the purchasing managers.

Backlogs, and this is the real bad news, have declined over the past 12 months – something that has happened during recessions or very slow economic periods.

The economic scenario used in our investment strategy is one of slow growth. It has major repercussions on earnings, commodities, and inflation.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

From the 9-13-15 issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio

The markets seem to hope for more QE to give some life to the distressed economies.

But they are now realizing that stimulus has failed. It has instead opened deep social wounds and unrest.

Economies have not responded and profits and productivity are languishing.

Bearish.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

 

The world is in shambles

"The world is in shambles.

The ugly spectacle of men, women and children fleeing the war-torn countries of the Middle East and invading the European countries. The incompetence of the world leaders who created this human tragedy.

The crushing process of deleveraging, punishing pension returns and the majority of society, while causing lower prices of goods and assets.

The fight of corporations to maintain current profitability, let alone trying to improve it.

The misguided monetary policy of the past 10 years. What is even more tragic is that the same ineffective thinking that created this chaos is being applied to solve it.

Yes, the world is in a mess."

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Using volume to spot tops and bottoms

 

Trading volume is very important to spot important bottoms and tops in the stock market and individual stocks.

The above chart shows you what I mean. Two important patterns.

1.  Well above average volume after a sharp market correction is a sign stocks are close to a bottom.

2.  Well above average volume following a spike in price is a sign of an important market top. There are many examples of this pattern. For example gold in 2011 and Berkshire in December 2014.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Is this a bear market?

 

The number of bears among investment advisors is increasing.

Question: is the number of bears high enough to flag a major market bottom?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Another sign we might be in a recession

 

Backlogs of durable goods declined -0.5% y/y.

This is the exact value they had in the midst of the 2000 and 2009 recessions.

And then they wonder why commodities are sinking.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Are we in a recession?

 

It is no surprise the market is plunging, commodities are sinking and yields are declining.

The above chart shows the decline in factory orders in the past 12 moths. The weakness in orders (and other data we follow) suggests the economy is growing very slowly and may even be in a recession.

I always said to avoid commodity sensitive sectors when the economy is sluggish. This business cycle has been no exception.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Seasonality of health care stock

In the past 5 years health care stocks (XLV) have risen 75% of the times in September, 75% of the times in October and 100% of the times in November.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Another bear market signal

 

The advance-decline line broke its 200dma weeks ago (see previous posts). Now the DJIA is well below its 200dma (see above chart). Profits are falling as the economy is slowing down.

One more trend we found compelling - our proprietary indicators are saying financial risk is rising. This is trend particularly meaningful because all major bear markets (or corrections) have been accompanied by rising financial risk.

The fact that long-term Treasury bonds have strengthened suggests big money is looking for safety.

These are important bear market signs. For a detailed analysis of the financial and economic environment and a real-time read of our indicators please review the latest issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

A bear market signal

 

The advance-decline of the NYSE (stocks only) finished July below the 200dma.

The market has lost considerable momentum and the weakness of the advance-decline could very well imply bad news for equities.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Is a recession around the corner?

 

 

Durable good orders - non defense ex aircraft - have been plunging.  They declined -6.6% y/y.

It should come as no surprise commodities are sinking and the market is going nowhere.

Is a recession around the corner?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.