1.您能告诉我们《聪明投资》中您最关键的投资理念吗？
1.
Could you tell us the key points of your investment philosophy from your book "PROFITING IN BULL OR BEAR MARKETS"？
The main ideas behind the book are:
1. Provide the tools to recognize whether the economy is strengthening or weakening.
2. Make investors realize that asset classes doing well when the economy grows above its average pace (e.g. commodity sensitive stocks) are different from investments doing well when the economy grows below its average pace (e.g. banks, insurance, real estate).
2.索罗斯认为美国经济已处于双底衰退阶段，您怎么看美国经济？
2.
In George Soros’s opinion, the American economy is in a double bottom decline period, how do you think about America economics？
The USA has lost the competitive edge. Productivity growth is close to zero percent. The dollar, as a result, is sinking for some time. Printing money is not the solution. The US economy will grow at a 2% pace, well below its 3% average.
3.您如何看待全球经济？欧洲和中国呢？
3.
How do you think about the world economics？Europe and China economics？
Europe has huge problems because is trying to put together countries with much different productivity growth, unit labor costs, and trade deficits. The countries with large trade deficits cannot devalue because of the common currency and they have reached their borrowing limit. Europe, as is constructed, cannot survive. I have been saying this at least since 2003.
One of the main challenges for China is to achieve a free floating Renminbi. A floating currency is the market mechanism to correct imbalances. Several European countries are having financial problems because they do not have this safety valve.
4.全球经济处于您枯荣经济圈的那一个阶段？在这个阶段该如何投资？
4.
Which is phase do you think the world economics now，growth, prosperity, recession, recovery？And in this phase, how shoud us to ivest?
We are slowing down. All the recent leading indicators from the OECD point to this phase.
5.您是否认为金价已见顶？金价未来走势您如何看？油价和大宗商品价格呢？
5.
Do you think gold price is too high ？How about gold price in future you think?How about oil price and commodity prices？
Commodity prices and gold (another special commodity) decline when the global economy is weakening, as it is now. Commodity and precious metals are an attractive investment if you believe the global economy is strengthening.
6.穆迪、标普等美国评级机构不断下调欧洲国家的评级，你怎么看欧洲债务问题的前景？欧债危机下一步将对全球经济有怎样的影响？您预测欧洲问题最终会什么时候如何解决？
6.
As the American rating agencies such as Moody and Standard & Poor's continuously cut credit rating of the European countries, what do you think about the foreground of The European debt, and how will the Europe debt crisis impact the global economy? When will the Europe debt crisis be solved?
The European crisis cannot be resolved as long as countries with large trade deficits are not allowed to devalue (an important market mechanism to make countries more competitive). Europe will have to split in two Euros - the strong Euro and the weak Euro.
Europe is a major trading partner for China and the rest of the world. Europe’s collapse will result in improvements in the global economy because it will eliminate market uncertainties and distortions.
7.您觉得全球范围来看，目前该买的地区和具体的投资品种、投资行业是什么？
7,,
As far as you are concerned, what’s the best investment variety or industry and where is the best place globally?
Income producing investments.
8.在投资策略上，您对投资者有哪些建议？您认为投资的关键在哪里？
8.
Do you have any advices for investors on investment strategy, and what’s the significance?
Be careful. It is not easy to invest and select attractive investments. You need to find an investment process that fits your personality. Then change it slowly to reflect new knowledge you acquire. The worst mistake for investors is not following their investment process all the time.
9. 目前中国股票估值跌至历史低位。您觉得A股跌倒底了么？现在是入场抄底的时机么？该买什么？
9.
In your opinion, does A-share market fall to the bottom when Chinese stock valuation has reached a historic low? Is it the time to copy the bottom now? What should investors buy?
No one knows. One think I am sure -- the markets eventually always win.
10.目前发展中国国家资金回流发达国家，您对此怎么看？那发展中国家在您看来有哪些投资机会？
10.
what do you think about the phenomenon that the fund is flowing back from developing countries to the developed ones? And are there any investment opportunities for developing countries?
Money flows toward the countries that have least barriers for investors. The developed countries are becoming too defensive, which is the reason funds are floating toward developing countries.
11.通常情况下，您通过哪些因素来判定股市市场拐点？
11.
Normally, though what factors do you estimate the stock market inflection point?
The stock market – as discussed in my book – peaks when the economy is strengthening, inflation is rising, short-term interest rates are rising, the yield curve is flattening or inverted, and credit risk has been rising.
12.在目前通胀的形势下，投资者应该如何投资？
12.
How should people invest under such situation of inflation?
Rising inflation is accompanied by rising commodities and rising bond yields. Shorting bonds is an attractive strategy. Raising cash and wait for short-term interest rates to decline is also a valid option.
13.对普通投资者，您能否给出几句话的理财建议？不仅仅局限在股票和大宗商品。
13.
Are there any words about personal finance for ordinary investors, not only limited to stocks and commodity?
Study.Study. Study about investments. Be careful if it sounds too good. Be very prudent until you prove to yourself you can survive a complete business cycle.
14.在道琼斯指数创下2008年以来新高的情况下，中国股票指数却十年来原地踏步、没有上涨，中国指数基金持有人并没有赚到钱，您对此如何看？
14.
Now the Dow Jones index rise a new high point position after 2008，but in last ten years,the China’s Stock index number didn’t rise,chines investors who have the index funds didn’t gain money，what your opinions of this.
Markets decline when inflation rises, governments over-regulate and tighten monetary policy. China cannot escape the forces of the business cycle.
More details in my
The Peter Dag Portfolio , in
Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on
http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by
Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.
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