Perspective

In 2009 the business cycle was in phase 1.

The stock market was strong. Commodities moved higher. Yields stopped declining. Inflation eventually rose.

These trends were even more pronounced in phase 2, as the economy gained strong momentum.

Then we moved to phase 3. Some of the trends have reversed themselves. Commodities are going nowhere. Yields have declined. Inflation has peaked.

Even in these exceptional times, the forces created by the business cycle have a profound impact on prices of all asset classes.

Why does the business cycle has such an impact on prices? Because the business cycle is the outcome of business decisions concerning financing, purchasing, selling, investing. They are all driven by perceived opportunities created by the current position of the business cycle. Eventually, reversion to the mean takes over creating new opportunities.

My book Profiting in Bull or Bear Market explains in detail these relationships. This book is the outcome of an MBA class I taught for many years. My publication The Peter Dag Portfolio discusses current developments and translates them in an investment strategy and specific recommendations/investments.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 and 2010 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe to The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific investment portfolio.

Disclaimer.The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.