Norhtern Trust explains why the employment figures of the next few months will look great.
The employment report for March to be published on Friday, April 2, will contain hiring related to data collection for Census 2010. Hiring for the 2010 Census should result in wide swings of headline payroll estimates during the March-September period. Payroll information pertaining to Census 2000 is a good guide to the magnitude of temporary distortions that may occur this time around.
In 2000, hiring of census workers rose 117,000, 73,000, and 357,000 in March, April, and May, respectively. It should be noted that these numbers are as reported and do not reflect revisions. The loss of these census-related temporary jobs was spread over the June-September 2000, with the relatively larger losses occurring in June and September. This is a rough approximation of what is likely to occur in 2010.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 and 2010 by Timer Digest
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