Employment was very strong last month, up 180,000 as the unemployment rate fell to a low 4.4%. Wages rose north of 4% over twelve months. Good news for consumers.
Employment in construction and goods-producing sectors (see chart above; click on graph to enlarge), however, is growing at a pace usually associated with recessions.
The growth in wages is particularly meaningful when accompanied by a declining unemployment rate. They reveal a strong consumer sector and shortage of labor in many areas.
Rising commodities (especially gas prices), inflation on the upside again, tight labor market, and accelerating money supply are the kind of developments associated with rising, certainly not lower, interest rates.
Sagging bond prices reflect this underlying state of affairs.
Will the stock market notice these crosscurrent?
More on https://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio on https://www.peterdag.com/
Since 1977
7 comments:
Hello!
Very good article. Thank you -
have a good day!!!
Great article - perhaps in historic context it mirrors Greenspans expectation of a recession as higher real rates affect buyers. However, with M3 running at 11.5%, commodities running up, perhaps the 1970s come to mind.
Not a good combination for equities but I think The Boys will try to take out the February highs. Difficult to do it this week though. Wednesday's Fed Minutes are more likely than not to generate selling.
Not a time to get aggressively long. Too many issues need resolving.
One of the reasons I was interested in this blog was that it should provide insight into George Dagnino's expectations for future market direction.
This post, as with most others, are nothing but self promotions for his service. Typical sharing of past information, with the leading question:
"Will the stock market notice these crosscurrent? More on https://www.peterdag.com/."...
(his subscription based service).
Why not share your ideas here George, ....do you think the stock market is going higher or lower. Near term, next 4-6 weeks, intermediate term next 2-4 months, and longer term, for 2007 into 2008. What are your expectations?
Just another blog with useless tidbits of readily available past information, and plenty of shameless self promotion.
mike-
Subscribers (and George) may have a very different view of what you ask. He thinks and writes. They pay a fair price. You want it for FREE.
For markm, your 04-09 comment about "Not a time to get aggressively long. Too many issues need resolving" is likely a timely one.
IMHO, this early April time frame is exactly the time to be getting aggressively long. You should carefully note where we are, and in a month or two think back to why you were bearish. Watch what is happening to International and Emerging Market funds (EEM), US Indexes, as well as the cummulative A/D line for the NYSE, and please post on this blog when you turn bullish.
As for Mike's post above, he has a point. This is a blog devised to promote an advisory service.
Simply, I would like to see an EQUITY PLOT ($ value) of the model portfolio being managed, according to the buy and sell signals of this service. I went to the website, and it is not made available.
Most timers/advisors with a decent record use timertrac.com or theta.com to track their signals and to provide an equity plot reflecting their performance.
Here is a link showing some of the advisors who are being tracked by timertrac.com
http://www.timertrac.com/Public/SignalList.aspx
Notice that this advisory is not included. An equity plot of the dollar value of a model portfolio is the simplest way to convey to a potential subscriber the merits of using an advisory service.
jim-
You need to re-read my post. Am I long now? Can you tell? If so, how long? If not am I neutral? Or am I short?
My language is plain. Read it. Nouns and adverbs please. All sentences, not just what you choose to see in it.
Thanks for the advice on trading psychology though.
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