Happy New Year!!! ....

... and thank you for following my ideas and comments.

It was a good year for me. I finished Top Market Timer for the year.

It means a lot to me because the market may be trading in a broad range in the next 1-2 years. For this reason I have been focusing in "honing" my technical indicators and improving their reliability. It looks like I am getting there.

2010 will be a challenging year and investors will need to be focused.

Again, thank you for following my blog and I am looking forward to seeing you as one of our regular subscribers to The Peter Dag Portfolio. I should add that as a subscriber you can call me any time at the 800 phone number.

Have a wonderful and prosperous 2010!!!!

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

The markets always win

News. Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Montclair, New Jersey, where the median family income is almost twice the U.S. average, may have to shut one of its two libraries. The Newark suburb of Irvington is considering firing police officers.

The towns are bracing for the impact of state aid cuts, after Governor-elect Christopher Christie said he may slash spending by as much as 25 percent next year amid declining tax revenue

My point. Governments give away services of all types. They are very generous with our money. There is a point, however, when money runs out because it was not invested to make more money.

Governments transfer wealth from us to the bond holders. Eventually they are sucking from us all the money they can -- until there is no other alternative. The pendulum has to swing the other way. And services have to be taken out, cancelled, cut.

Yes, the markets always win. Governments can distribute income up to a point. If the services do not produce wealth (or do not help to produce wealth), they have to be terminated. Which ones? The fat, useless fat.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Time to relax...

I love this performance of the Fandango. It is energetic and passionate. Bravo!

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

An interesting Q&A to ponder

SPIEGEL: As chairman of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board, you advise President Barack Obama on how to prevent such a recurrence. Is he following your guidance?

Volcker: We have various working groups that work on and make recommendations on particular problems like retirement programs and social security. We made some recommendations on financial reforms, which were not accepted, but that is part of the game. The president is more eloquent than I can be on these issues. Getting it done as compared to talking about it is a problem, but we have some suggestions along that line.

My point. An interesting answer about this administration from a wise and loyal public servant. The complete interview can be read by clicking here.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

The importance of having a strong currency

News. The Dearborn, Mich., automaker said Wednesday that it expects to finalize the sale of Volvo to China's Geely Group early next year if financing and government approvals fall into place.

My point. A country with a strong currency will find it easy and profitable to buy assets of weak currency countries.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Off-the-cuff

Any investment approach you follow is valid.

Let me explain. When you recognize you made a mistake, make a serious effort to find out why and how you made a mistake. And above all, do not forget it!

When you make a successful investment, ask yourself what you have done right. And above all, do not forget it!

Finally. Maintain your focus on your investment approach. Never tire to search how you can improve it by reviewing what you did right and what you did wrong in the past.

Merry Christmas!

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

What worries me?

The latest reports show too many bullish investors.

This is the first important sign the market may be close to a period of consolidation.

This is just one measure of markets excess. But I do not like to rely on just one indicator. My long-term market forecasts use information about employment growth, financial risk, short-term interest rates, corporate bond yields, corporate profits, and growth in monetary aggregates. All this measures are closely related to the business cycle.

To predict the near term market outlook, I use the 4-month cycle and many technical indicators monitoring the progress of the market.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

A bullish trend

A very bullish trend.

The Nasdaq composite index is soaring (click on the graph to enlarge it). The index moved decisively above 2200, an important resistance level.

The long-term channel is heading higher. The short-term trendline is also rising. This is definitely a bullish configuration for the Nasdaq index.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Double dip?

Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz sees a significant chance the U.S. economy will contract again in the second half of 2010, and urged the government to prepare a second stimulus package:

"The likelihood of this slowdown is very, very high. There is a significant chance that the number will be in the negative range," said Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Useful statistics

The S&P has increased an average of 1.5 percent during the seven trading days that start with Christmas Eve and end with the first two days in January since 1950. That's the widely recognized period for the Santa Claus rally, as first identified in 1972 by Stock Trader's Almanac founder Yale Hirsch.

Stocks went up in 12 of the last 15 of those year-end periods.

Think positive.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
Ranked Top Market Timer in 2009 by Timer Digest

To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can review The Peter Dag Portfolio. You can also call me at 1-800-833-2782 to discuss your specific money management needs.

I will be happy to speak to your investment group on how the business cycle impacts investment strategies and the choice of asset classes.

Disclaimer. No material here constitutes "investment advice" nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.