Peter Dag & Friends: June 2015

6/28/15

Bond futures soaring...right now

The uncertainties created by the European issues with Greece are sending yields much lower and bond prices soaring.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

S&P 500 futures sink...right now

The S&P 500 futures are sinking right now in response to the European crisis.

The world is paying the price for a bad idea - the Euro.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

EURO COLLAPSING...RIGHT NOW

The Euro dropped substantially the past few minutes as markets opened (Sunday).

It declined from 1.12 to 1.08 and keeps sinking. The financial market do not like what they see ahead for Europe and a disgraced currency.

The European experiment is creating poverty. There is no question about it. I have been writing about it for many many years. Germany is the only country benefitting from the Euro.

The southern European countries are paying the price. It is not Germany's fault. The issue is that in a large economic area you cannot put together high productivity wealth producing countries and other countries with low productivity.

The high productivity countries will destroy the low productivity countries because capital is bound to go where wealth is produced and will escape the low productivity countries.

This is exactly what has been happening. This is the reason I have been predicting an unfortunate outcome for the EU. It is sad to see so many people suffering because of a few bureaucrats' bad idea.

Will the markets win as they did in the past? Time will tell.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

6/27/15

Market seasonality: what's ahead for the market in July

The percent of months in which the S&P 500 closed higher than it opened in the last 15 years (see above chart)?

40% in June.
50% in July
64% in August
57% in September
71% in October

Bottom line? It looks like we are facing an uncertain seasonal period. Stay tuned.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Market breadth points to correction

This chart is really worrisome. Will the market ignore it?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

6/19/15

Investments to avoid

The business cycle has two major phases:

stronger than average growth and
weaker than average growth.

Commodities - as I have been writing ad nauseam - do not perform well in a weaker than average economy.

Caterpillar sales record proves my point (see above chart). Commodity-sensitive asset classes and investments do not perform well in a weak economy.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

6/16/15

Is the market overvalued?

According to this indicator the market is grossly overvalued. Note how it moved much higher than the 2000 and 2008 market bottom.

It looks like we are in uncharted territory. Time to be cautious?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

6/13/15

A strong bullish sign

What do they know?

Amateur investors are emotional in their asset allocation.

When the market is strong and Wall Street is enthusiastic about the market, they start allocating more and more cash to equities.

They tend to become conservative when the market fails to appreciate or enters a boring period like the present one.

Fear comes into play and investors start allocating more an more of their capital to cash. Unfortunately they are always too late to the party.

This is exactly what is happening now. Investors are afraid and are moving they investments into cash. This is a great signal. It may be telling us we are closer to the time to buy stocks.

Why? Because as shown in the above chart, investors are always wrong at major turning points.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

6/10/15

How to get rich

The average household in the top 20% of income has an average of almost exactly two full-time workers; the average poor family (bottom 20%) has just 0.4 worker.

This means on average that roughly for every hour worked by those in a poor household, those in a rich household work five hours. (Source:IBD).

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

6/9/15

Advance-decline line keeps sinking.

The advance-decline line keeps sinking. It declined below the important 125dma.

Is the a-d line telling us to be careful?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

6/8/15

Bad news for the market?

The advance-decline line is sinking and breaking below an important trendline. The market keeps losing momentum.

Is this the beginning of the much awaited correction?

6/4/15

Stocks are at a critical junture

The market has been losing momentum since early May.

This is particularly evident when you look at the advance-decline line (see above chart).

What is interesting is that the a-d line is declining sharply, more sharply than the overall market. It is now close to the moving average (blue line). A break below this line may very well signal serious trouble for the market.

Stay tuned.

6/2/15

These trends mean deflation

We have been predicting that a slow economy and lower

commodities bring inevitably low and declining inflation.

Consumer prices declined -0.1% y/y (red line) and producer

prices for finished goods tumbled -4.9% y/y (blue line).

Prices will remain weak unless the economy strengthens in a

visible way and commodities move higher.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown on our website when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Stocks and the economy

The stock market has been rising slowly in 2015, up close to 1% ytd. The market is an excellent leading indicator of the economy,

The latest data show quite clearly the economy is downshifting. Consumer spending (blue line, above chart) is up only 2.8% y/y and income (red line) is also slowing down.

The market knows and is fully aware that a slower economy will bring weak profits. And stocks strive on rising profits.

Stocks will grow faster only when the economy grows faster thus bringing larger profits.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown and discussed in each issue. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES. Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.

6/1/15

If the market is ok how come....

If the stock market is on a sound ground how come the transportation stocks are sinking?

Can the economy be strong when transportation stocks point to slow growth and slower growth in earnings in this important sector of the economy?

Can stock go much higher without the confirmation of the transportation sector?

The bottom line is that the investment scenario would look much better if the transportation stocks would rise and point to a positive economic environment.

We update these trends in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio - when they are sending a clear message.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown and discussed in each issue. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

STRATEGIC INVESTING FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES. Learn how to manage your portfolio risk and sleep comfortably. Improve the certainty of returns by taking advantage of business cycle trends. Learn to use simple hedging strategies to minimize the volatility of your portfolio and protect it from downside losses.