tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-43931210241526141892012-01-29T15:19:42.552-05:00Peter Dag & FriendsMoney management ideas and strategies.www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.comBlogger20641100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-5722217256254890722012-01-29T15:19:00.000-05:002012-01-29T15:19:42.561-05:00We keep kicking the can(Der Spiegel) - It's German Chancellor Angela Merkel's pet project -- a new European Union fiscal pact to ensure members' budgetary discipline through stricter controls. But European legal experts have doubts about its viability, while critics say there are more important issues at hand.
Behind financial crises there are budget deficits. Behind budget deficits there are trade deficits. Behind www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-73572802234721762682012-01-28T04:08:00.000-05:002012-01-28T04:08:10.588-05:00Food for thought(Source: Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook). Studies suggest the government expenditure multiplier is zero to slightly negative. Increased deficit spending does appear to provide a modest lift to GDP for three to five quarters, depending upon the initial conditions of the economy. However, following this small, transitory gain, deficit spending actually retards GDP growth and the economy www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-60830772854285614072012-01-27T14:12:00.006-05:002012-01-27T14:15:05.833-05:00More about big governments(Bloomberg) - Fitch Ratings cut the credit ratings of Italy, Spain and three other euro-area countries, saying they lack financing flexibility in the face of the regional debt crisis.
Italy, the euro area’s third-largest economy, was cut two levels to A- from A+. The rating on Spain was also lowered two notches, to A from AA-. Ratings on Belgium, Slovenian and Cyprus were also lowered, while www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-86711390100078534362012-01-27T03:57:00.025-05:002012-01-27T04:18:18.548-05:00The real European issueI have been writing at least since 2003 that the difference in productivity among the European countries is the main reason for the failure of their union.
This chart (click on the chart to enlarge it) shows the difference in unit labor costs (labor costs adjusted for the productivity of each country) of several European countries (Source: Macronomics). The countries in trouble have high unit www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-70243385116615524732012-01-26T11:01:00.000-05:002012-01-26T11:01:02.070-05:00Thought of the dayThe only way to replenish depleted pension funds, to solve the problems of failing banks and the intellectual corruption of political policies is to print money.
Print, print, print.
Stocks are soaring. Volatility is declining, confirming the decline in financial risk.
And the small savers are being punished with zero percent return on their savings.
More details in my The Peter Dag www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-87908544310840037212012-01-25T14:10:00.000-05:002012-01-25T14:10:58.955-05:00I am not convinced.By keeping interest rates at zero percent the Fed is trying to revive the economy by helping the profitability of the banking system (carry trade).
But what happened to the class of people Mr. Obama wants to help? All of us need income. Do interest rates close to zero really help the "working class".
If people do not have a job, they really do not care that interest rates are zero percent. Theywww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-79058840621835571552012-01-25T10:01:00.000-05:002012-01-25T10:01:54.588-05:00Technical patternsFrom 1125 in October the S&P 500 rose to 1314 yesterday.
What caught my attention has been the trading range from early 2011 to August 2011. The market traded for many months between 1275 and 1350. This range may represent major resistance. In other words, stocks will have to do a lot of "work" before moving above it.
No one really knows. But it is an interesting pattern to keep in mind in the www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-74950815664857315352012-01-24T15:17:00.000-05:002012-01-24T15:17:46.176-05:00Interesting patternIt is a wild thought, but...
It looks like the bond vigilantes have been going after the bonds of countries with deteriorating debt situation. Even Germany has not been immune.
Could it be -- could it be -- that they are going to come to the USA? If so yields may be going up quite a bit. They already seem to have bottomed. Could it be due to seasonality (see previous post) or something more www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-61751152789591482262012-01-23T21:55:00.000-05:002012-01-23T21:55:33.677-05:00Seasonality
Long stocks.
Short bonds.
Long commodities.
Long gold.
See my videos on seasonality on YouYube and here.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-67860826328997840542012-01-21T16:21:00.002-05:002012-01-21T16:21:47.951-05:00ObservationsI spend my day analyzing markets. Looking at hundreds of graphs. Trying to identify relationships between financial and economic variables. It is a lot of fun. However, it is exhausting.
Several years ago, as an escape from my world, I began to look at how the mind controls the body. I discovered Qigong. The next step was to read about Zen. Then Taoism, Confucianism, and Buddhism. I found myselfwww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-15096176354140236992012-01-20T07:19:00.013-05:002012-01-20T07:27:42.852-05:00A step in the right directionJan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Mario Monti's Cabinet will pass a plan today designed to boost competition and spur economic growth by targeting Italian professional guilds, many of which date to the Fascist era.
I have always said in my talks that the main problem in Italy is the guilds. The concept that you cannot start a pharmacy within a 10 mile radius from another. That you have to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-40654249271235376462012-01-19T21:47:00.000-05:002012-01-19T21:47:13.113-05:00Germany is crushing Europe(Der Spiegel) - "If this strong movement towards discipline and stability is not recognized as taking place, and a certain approach to financial aspects does not gradually evolve, then there will be a powerful backlash in the countries which are being submitted to a huge effort of discipline," Monti told the paper.
The politicians are beginning to be scared by their own actions. They understandwww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-52409120393387494552012-01-19T10:44:00.002-05:002012-01-19T21:36:49.724-05:00Thoughts for intelligent investing
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe towww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-18913568261986521772012-01-18T05:50:00.000-05:002012-01-18T05:50:47.389-05:00Print, print, print(Bloomberg) - European stocks rose, erasing their earlier losses, as the International Monetary Fund was said to propose a $1 trillion expansion of its lending resources. Asian shares and U.S. index futures advanced.
This is the real reason the global markets are rising. Central banks are determined to save the Euro. They will keep printing money to create "wealth" through equity appreciation www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-65247450475074503022012-01-16T21:21:00.000-05:002012-01-16T21:21:12.889-05:00Profit from markets' seasonality
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe towww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-43849853119644025882012-01-14T09:58:00.000-05:002012-01-14T09:58:42.270-05:00The markets this week
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe towww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-29114080144479273342012-01-13T09:57:00.002-05:002012-01-13T09:59:23.528-05:00So?(Bloomberg)U.S. stocks fell, snapping a four- day rally for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, on a report that several euro-region countries may face credit downgrades by S&P.
Why should we be surprised? What's new? Actually, financial stress is visibly improving in Europe according to our indicators.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-91381385348003080482012-01-12T14:56:00.005-05:002012-01-16T09:21:53.771-05:00Momentum, moving averages, and sector rotation
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can subscribe www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-42115241246259070182012-01-11T10:43:00.002-05:002012-01-11T10:44:23.075-05:00Observation. Since Mr. Bush has been elected president we have had unprecedented turbulence in world affairs.
• Russia and China feel strongly that the issues between US and N. Korea should not be dealt with in the UN. They should be resolved diplomatically.
• Germany, France, Russia, and China (among the major countries) object to our going to war against Iraq.
• War protests around the world are www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-41753159215274308672012-01-09T22:12:00.002-05:002012-01-09T22:12:48.056-05:00About Europewww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-80058156216838735192012-01-08T19:46:00.002-05:002012-01-08T19:47:53.448-05:00Classic patternTonight the stock futures are weak.
Commodities are weak.
Bonds (Treasuries) are strong.
This is a classic pattern - near term and long term.
If tomorrow the market is strong we are likley to see weak bonds and strong commodities.
Did you notice the full moon?
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-62795252665854426502012-01-07T08:02:00.004-05:002012-01-07T14:19:17.898-05:00Povera Italia! Poveri Italiani!(ZeroHedge) - Events in Italy must be watched closely. The country that gifted Fascism to the world in the 1930s was widely admired even by FDR, who held Mussolini in high regard and was no doubt inspired in many of his own policy choices. Will Italy lead the way once more, as politicians in Europe and the US watch to see what oppressive policies they may get away with? And while Russell Napier (www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-74260576907105614212012-01-06T21:57:00.000-05:002012-01-06T21:57:52.277-05:00A strange dayStrength in technology, consumer cyclicals, health care, commodities. Everything else down.
Bonds firm in spite of commodities going up.
Volatility sharply lower. It suggests confidence. As I said, a strange day.
The really good news is that next week we will have full moon. Will the market start rallying again?
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-12145642352175302972012-01-06T05:17:00.006-05:002012-01-06T05:23:35.877-05:00Early morning trends(Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a higher open for equities on Wall Street on Friday, with futures for the S&P 500, for the Dow Jones and for the Nasdaq 100 rising 0.2-0.4 percent.
The financial markets seem to be stabilizing. The good news is also the downtrend of volatility. It is usually a good sign.
Commodities are firm and gold is up.
Yields on Italian bonds moved higher to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-31384879361993279462012-01-05T17:33:00.000-05:002012-01-05T17:33:49.434-05:00Thought of the dayPicking stocks or investments is not the important feature in investing your money.
The most important and crucial feature is the process you use in managing your money. How you manage the performance of your portfolio.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-25945229166152156712012-01-05T10:45:00.000-05:002012-01-05T10:45:28.396-05:00Technical patterns1275 seems a formidable resistance level.
The S&P 500 tried to move above it in November and December. But it failed.
This is also the level the market broke sharply on the downside in July-August.
My sense is that it will take high volume and much stronger commodities to move stocks up from the current position.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Market Alert, www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-89986275328632716962012-01-04T21:44:00.004-05:002012-01-04T21:45:44.364-05:00Off-the-cuffWhere will the money to save Europe come from?
The ECB, of course.
What if the ECB forces private investors to pay some of the bill? Where will they find the money?
What if they start selling the Treasuries they accumulated during the 2008-2009 crisis?
Will yields on Treasuries rise? How can you profit from this scenario?
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive Marketwww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-21370246315402599242012-01-04T12:35:00.004-05:002012-01-04T12:36:19.575-05:00Enjoy the elegance of this sailboat
Georgewww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-51762910448506744292012-01-04T11:38:00.000-05:002012-01-04T11:38:53.178-05:00About bondsAs I look at the financial channel, one theme comes screaming at me.
There is a huge debt to be refinanced by nations - Europe and USA. They are trying to rebuild their finances, to pay the bills, to pay all the promises they made to the people and to themselves.
It is a continuous barrage of issuance of bonds -- billions and billions.
Now, why do I say this? Because it is unfathomable not to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-59435224575321196942012-01-03T11:07:00.000-05:002012-01-03T11:07:40.027-05:00Thought of the dayThe global markets are soaring. It is tempting to buy high beta stocks to make more money. But high beta stocks add volatility to the performance of your portfolio. Is this what you really want?
Focusing on steady returns is my way of looking at managing money. Morningstar has a great charting feature giving you the total return of your stocks. It is helpful to assess the strongest/weakest and www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-42294818661207556672012-01-02T15:36:00.009-05:002012-01-02T15:40:46.610-05:00The game goes onThe European equity markets are soaring. This is what the art of central banking is all about.
Just print money. Let the people playing the game profit from it. Forget about those poor among us in dire need of a job. Let the special interests deal with it.
Let Greece and everything else go down the drain in the name of a socialist utopia - the Euro. The damage has been done.
Now - let's make www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-83399552947138627212012-01-02T05:52:00.002-05:002012-01-02T05:54:12.759-05:00ObservationsI was in southern Florida recently to talk at a money management conference. A participant from Cincinnati, Ohio was having a drink with me and he pointed out how inexpensive real estate was in the area.
“ For $250,000 you can buy a nice house with swimming pool in this area. It is impossible to find such a deal in Cincinnati”, he noted.
What he was really saying was that a dollar earned in www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-15992480799827026452012-01-01T04:02:00.005-05:002012-01-01T04:15:32.576-05:00The European problems - another perspective(DW-World) - We wouldn't be worried about Greece if the European banks had not overpurchased Greek debt. If the banks had been more prudent in buying all this sovereign debt the problem could have been solved a long time ago by just giving the bond holders a haircut. The whole trouble is that the bond holders are the banks or at least were until they were trying to divest themselves of bonds in www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-61678109928816286272011-12-31T18:16:00.002-05:002011-12-31T18:17:03.722-05:00The end of the dream(NYT) - PERAMA, Greece — The free clinic here opened about a year ago to serve illegal immigrants. But these days, it is mostly caring for Greeks like Vassiliki Ragamb, who was sitting in the waiting room hoping to get insulin for her young diabetic son.
Four days earlier, she had run out of insulin and, without insurance and unable to pay for more, she had gone from drugstore to drugstore, www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-68260747036014207642011-12-31T15:37:00.002-05:002011-12-31T15:37:56.946-05:00The European collapse is inevitable(Der Spiegel) - Since its inception, the euro zone has been built on lies, the most grievous of which is the idea that the common currency could work without political union. But Europe's politicians are currently suffering under a different but equally fatal delusion -- that they have all the time in the world to fix the crisis.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-39301970302874485662011-12-30T00:33:00.000-05:002011-12-30T00:33:33.770-05:00The problem of Europe is productivity differentials between countries.This is an example of why the Italian austerity programs will not work.
A few years ago I had to fly to Rome to witness the following process.
My mother had to sell two stores. The buyers and the sellers had an attorney each to make sure the paperwork was correct.
Enter the NOTARY. The Notary is a powerful individual representing the government in all financial transactions without working www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-92007681404544673242011-12-29T23:08:00.002-05:002011-12-29T23:24:03.618-05:00Seasonality patternsUntil May ...seasonality patterns.
Firm stocks market.
Rising commodities (all of them).
Rising gold.
Rising yields.
Weak bond prices (Treasuries).
Firm high-yield bond prices.
Continued upward pressure on short-term interest rates (US$ Libor).
Will the historical patterns repeat? Time will tell.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-81857628188582728652011-12-29T11:51:00.000-05:002011-12-29T11:51:08.182-05:00What caught my attentionGLD is plunging. Down to an important range: 145-150.
These are the levels of May-July when GLD traded in a narrow range. Then it moved strongly up.
These levels represent a formidable support level. Volume is strong. Is a bottom in sight? Finally?
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-81859798723915789202011-12-28T21:29:00.002-05:002011-12-28T21:32:05.994-05:00What to do?I keep reading negative news. Everybody is concerned about a collapse - economic and financial.
Recessions. Depressions. In Europe. In Asia. Every country seems to be vulnerable.
This is a good time to keep cool. Stay calm. Think on your own.
How? Now, and always, you need to cope with uncertainty. Uncertainty is a state of nature, game theory suggests.
You have to have a process to deal withwww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-83665014420001242772011-12-28T18:24:00.000-05:002011-12-28T18:24:08.015-05:00Technical patternsWhat really matters right now is the 1250-1275 range for the S&P 500. It could very well be a bullish pattern if the average closes above these levels.
Utilities - weak - were much stronger than the market.
Stay tuned.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-29325126517935344102011-12-27T14:47:00.000-05:002011-12-27T14:47:11.045-05:00What did I notice today?. The market is going nowhere.
Utilities are very strong.
Business cycle sensitive - financial, materials, industrials, metals - weaker than the market.
Gold - another commodity? - weak.
High-yield bonds are firm.
Volatility sharply higher.
What does it mean? A nervous market playing it defensive.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-21405293277445075222011-12-24T23:40:00.003-05:002011-12-24T23:45:06.511-05:00It is the other way around(Dollarcollapse.com) - A single country can benefit by making its currency less valuable, because a falling exchange rate gives its exporters a pricing edge in global markets.
It is unbelievable. People do not understand that currencies reflect productivity differentials between economic areas.
The yen is strong because Japan is a very efficient country. Like Germany. Like Sweden. Like South www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-23439933610927946172011-12-24T15:43:00.000-05:002011-12-24T15:43:44.483-05:00StatisticsSince the beginning of the year a sound high-yield mutual fund we have been recommending for some time had a total return of 5.5% (S&P 500: 2.7%) as of 12.24.2011 (Source: charting programs offered by Morningstar),
In the last 5 years total returns were 31.0% and 0% respectively. Since 9/8/2004 total returns were 51.7% and 31.7% respectively, according to the Morningstar program.
Hard to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-8438781405496680382011-12-24T14:53:00.000-05:002011-12-24T14:53:53.516-05:00My latest presentationMy latest presentation can be reviewed by just clicking here. It is about Europe and investment strategies in the current economic environment.
A comment I received was...I have to think in a different way. ..Enlightening.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-78233967324841937632011-12-24T06:16:00.003-05:002011-12-24T06:18:50.238-05:00Moral hazard(Bloombeerg) - The ECB loaned banks a record 489 billion euros ($636 billion) for three years on Dec. 21 to avert a credit crunch from the sovereign debt crisis. The central bank said earlier this week that the turmoil has taken on systemic proportions not seen since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
It seems to me that as long as the banking system knows that governements and www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-65029179837251089692011-12-22T20:03:00.000-05:002011-12-22T20:03:23.426-05:00What caught my attention todayThe S&P 500 was stronger than utilites (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) and weaker than energy (XLE).
Does this mean the market is changing and rewarding riskier assets? Is this an important bullish sign?
Time will tell.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-67282988754360232552011-12-22T06:22:00.002-05:002011-12-22T06:23:09.297-05:00Here we go(Der Spiegel) - Armed with 45 experts and 30 years of experience, Horst Reichenbach is in Athens to help the Greeks economize and institute reforms. His conclusions about their situation are sobering, but he also reports a new sense of determination for tackling the debt crisis there.
Germany has started the job of "germanizing" the weak European countries. Make them more efficient.
Will they www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-66496870360298023122011-12-21T23:20:00.000-05:002011-12-21T23:20:48.685-05:00ObservationsGreed. The press is excited about the sharp movement of the Nasdaq and technology stocks. The focus is again on this class of assets.
It looks like business is beginning to spend more on IT. This development adds to the thrill of investing and to the belief investors will soon recover the huge losses of the past three years.
Our subscribers are well aware of what is happening and are asking us www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-45036648749678471542011-12-20T10:18:00.000-05:002011-12-20T10:18:57.100-05:00Another thought of the dayA trend is in place until it is broken.
This is the reason why appropriate trendlines and moving averages should be in the arsenal of every investor.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-73586774293345430392011-12-20T10:11:00.000-05:002011-12-20T10:11:43.142-05:00Thought of the dayBond yields have become the equivalent of what it used to be the meaning of exchange rates.
It used to be that the least efficient country had the weakest currency. Now, in the new world of high leverage, the least efficient country has the highest bond yield.
Markets are very efficient and they cannot be fooled. Even if the politicians try hard to do so.
More details in my The Peter Dag www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-27699387541698598482011-12-20T09:19:00.000-05:002011-12-20T09:19:27.933-05:00Ahead of the openingStrong market today. It is impressive how everything is so correlated. Stocks, bonds, commodities - including gold.
The aim of the strategy has come down to how much alpha or beta you want in your portolio.
I keep track of low beta and high alpha investments.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-70840513385107456562011-12-19T21:31:00.004-05:002011-12-19T21:39:02.519-05:00European "democracy"
Interesting development ... building a bureaucracy ....unelected ...to control Europe.
Is it possible? Is it true?www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-52945487091564405232011-12-19T09:04:00.000-05:002011-12-19T09:04:57.311-05:00Thought of dayThe business cycle works!
The economy slowed down.
After a few months commodities weakened.
After a few months inflation peaked.
What should happen now that an important lagging indicator such as inflation is declining? The answer is in my videos (free) on my site.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-60733470568786040172011-12-19T05:30:00.000-05:002011-12-19T05:30:24.730-05:00Questions(Bloomberg) - “There’s clearly a concern that it’s just a matter of time before France is downgraded,” said Nick Stamenkovic, a fixed- income strategist at RIA Capital Markets Ltd. in Edinburgh. “That’s making investors pretty cautious on France,” which is weighing on the bonds, he said.
French 10-year bond yields rose four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 4.0 percent at 9:03 a.m. www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-38317011987529038372011-12-17T09:29:00.002-05:002011-12-17T09:30:04.639-05:00Question of the sayThe Libor rate (London interbank borrowing rate in US$) has been rising since June.
Is the short-term money market tightening? Or is this an end-of-year seasonal phenomenon?
I watching this trend quite closely.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-68009528082859086412011-12-16T19:25:00.006-05:002011-12-17T09:23:54.981-05:00Late night thoughtsI just reviewed the latest data for the week.
Governemnt bond yields down in all the industrialized countries.
Commodities down ...metals...food...industrials.
Gold ... weak. Silver and other precious metals ...down.
Oil and nat gas ... down.
Ethanol..sharply lower.
Stock market .... going nowhere.
It smells like deflation. These trends could be bad news for profits. Lower prices will force www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-44362423842674064132011-12-16T09:06:00.000-05:002011-12-16T09:06:18.408-05:00The market always wins(Bloomberg) - U.S. and Asian companies seeking acquisitions in Europe may accelerate dealmaking next year after a slowdown in the second half, beckoned by a slumping euro and share prices depressed by the sovereign debt crisis.
The cycle.
A country loses its competitiveness.
Trade deficit increases.
The currency declines.
The country implements austerity programs.
The economy is in a www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-5901084565607874852011-12-16T08:28:00.006-05:002011-12-16T08:38:59.010-05:00Market patternsAre the markets in sync again? The pattern seems to be repeating and hopefully is going to be a good day. This is what the futures are doing as of this writing.
Stocks ... up
Yields ... up
Bond prices .. down
Commodities ... broadly up
Gold ... strong, up
Dollar ...weak
High-yield bonds ... fairly stable
Foreign markets ... up
I am looking forward to making some money today ... hopefully.
www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-24757549621280153812011-12-16T00:09:00.004-05:002011-12-16T00:15:28.919-05:00InterestingThere is the possibility, as The Guardian suggests, that the European leaders want to create a deep recession in Europe to make the Southern countries more competitive because of lower costs and wages. The same approach has been followed in Latvia.
If so, strong deflation is very likely. Will the other western countries be simple observers?
All prices will decline. Interest rates would first www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-452643933427163692011-12-15T23:33:00.000-05:002011-12-15T23:33:50.742-05:00Heading for the European breakup(Der Spiegel) - Not even a week after the most recent European Union summit aimed at ending the debt crisis, panic is mounting once again. But not in Berlin. Chancellor Merkel calmly told parliament on Wednesday that a solution would take years and German central bank head Jens Weidmann compared demands for ECB intervention to an alcoholic grabbing for the bottle..... With virtually the entire www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-5702596754161519882011-12-15T09:25:00.000-05:002011-12-15T09:25:36.264-05:00Correlation?Stocks are going to open up today. Strong. In response to a strengthening economy.
The other markets seem to follow quite closely (as of this writing).
Stocks ... up.
Commodities .. up.
Gold ... up (barely)
Yields ... up.
Dollar ... down.
It is mostly a typical pattern.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-75361064478511667142011-12-14T20:16:00.000-05:002011-12-14T20:16:04.096-05:00Technical patternsGLD and GDX sank with huge volume. This is a typical bullish pattern.
Let's hope so.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-85811125908900219862011-12-14T19:45:00.000-05:002011-12-14T19:45:16.092-05:00Concerned. Is this the way it was supposed to be?(Bloomberg) - Letter bombs and bullets mailed to officials have prompted Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti to warn of political violence returning to Italy.
In recent days, anarchist groups have spray-painted Intesa branches in some parts of Rome with graffiti and slogans such as “Down with Banker Thieves!” On Oct. 15, protesters rallying in an “Occupy Wall Street” demonstration set fire to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-59244428183964235102011-12-14T11:50:00.000-05:002011-12-14T11:50:40.060-05:00To my subscribersIn spite of today's massacre in all asset classes (except Treasury bonds), the stocks listed on page 2 and page 3 of The Peter Dag Portfolio are down a small fraction of the market. Some are actually up as of this writing.
Value. Dividends. Momentum. Three important features of our selection.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-29018186581786224442011-12-14T11:42:00.000-05:002011-12-14T11:42:39.938-05:00We have the same problems as Europe(Bloomberg) - Investors, spooked by bank analyst Meredith Whitney’s prediction of “hundreds of billions of dollars” of municipal defaults in 2011, started fleeing the market in record numbers, sending interest rates soaring, according to Craig Sheagren, the hospital’s chief financial officer. As bond buyers ran, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and other underwriters stepped up with offers of loans, www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-84817037532345150622011-12-13T22:56:00.000-05:002011-12-13T22:56:02.015-05:00Europe. What is happening?Did you notice Europe is not in the news – suddenly? Not a word. Not even in Der Spiegel. I still believe Germany has decided to let the banks pay the price for lending the money to unreliable countries. And cross your fingers.
Risk is still rising, however. Commodities are weak. Gold is down - acting as a commodity.
Volatility is down. Complacency? Or someone knows something we do not? Good www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-41607914467498725712011-12-13T09:45:00.002-05:002011-12-13T09:47:57.537-05:00What am I watching?Commodities (CRB index) are weak. It looked like they had bottomed, but is declining again.
It bothers me because equities and commodities are highly correlated and this should be bad news for the market. besides, their trend suggests the economy is not as strong as we would like.
The good news is that volatility (VIX) is declining and swap rates are below the peak of December.
Measures of www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-6318782582349148172011-12-12T09:43:00.000-05:002011-12-12T09:43:45.607-05:00Amazing, but to be expected(Reuters) - A European summit deal to strengthen budget discipline in the euro zone failed to restore financial market confidence on Monday, forcing the European Central Bank to step in again gingerly.
(Bloomberg) - The euro fell the most in two weeks versus the dollar as Moody’s Investors Service said it will review the ratings of European Union nations after last week’s summit failed to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-21010159309473039112011-12-11T20:23:00.000-05:002011-12-11T20:23:59.975-05:00Full moon indicatorIt is that day of the month -- full moon.
Let's see if even this month the market rises around the full moon days.
I know, it's crazy, but the market rises more often than not during the days close to the full moon.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dagwww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-19558170881205428952011-12-11T20:18:00.000-05:002011-12-11T20:18:18.996-05:00ObservationsIt is very interesting to think about how the mind works, how we assemble our thoughts -- seemingly out of nothing.
Take, for instance, dreams. For several years I have been dreaming of a wide body passenger multi-jet plane. It was landing in very narrow streets. The plane was landing on crowded steep hills and taking off from the same streets.
Electrical wires were overhanging the busy www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-45454491651972085462011-12-10T07:24:00.000-05:002011-12-10T07:24:17.742-05:00To our subscribersTreasury 30-year bonds fell for a second consecutive week as a European agreement for closer fiscal union reduced the haven appeal of U.S. debt and reports showed the economic recovery strengthening. (Bloomberg)
As we predicted some time ago using our proprieatry indicators. You know what to do if you want to take advantage of this trend.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-40663337595896782992011-12-10T00:48:00.000-05:002011-12-10T00:48:37.590-05:00No comment....the emergence for the first time of a cold new Europe in which Germany is the undisputed, pre-eminent power imposing a decade of austerity on the eurozone as the price for its propping up the currency.(Source: The Guardian).
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-18696022373265286792011-12-10T00:11:00.002-05:002011-12-10T00:36:58.116-05:00EU COUNCIL STATEMENTA lot of work. A lot of words. A lot of bureaucratic optimism.
If everything is so rosy, how come the US$ libor rate is soaring?
Does Germany want to get rid of the EU and live without being associated to financially broken countries?
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-30423943952416118812011-12-09T16:05:00.000-05:002011-12-09T16:05:49.904-05:00What caught my eye -- todayGLD weaker than GDX.
JNK up. But TBF much stronger.
VIX below 17, much lower that the high in August (close to 45).
LQD down.
KRE one of the strongest sectors.
Utilities very strong.
Commodities (DBC) weaker than the market.
Agriculturals (DBA) sagging.
I think this is a very interesting action of the markets in response to the totally meaningless news form Europe.
More details in my The Peter www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-79827936346304680002011-12-08T12:00:00.010-05:002011-12-08T12:03:32.760-05:00Why do we need this new agency?The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is expected to operate on a budget of just $550 million. That is 10 percent of what the Fed operates on and just over half of what the Securities and Exchange Commission spends as a the securities industry cop.
Senate Republicans say they have the votes on Thursday to successfully scuttle Democrats' efforts to get former Ohio Attorney General, and www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-16303567084334936132011-12-07T17:01:00.002-05:002011-12-07T17:01:54.716-05:00Something to think about"When you buy a house, you’re not just committing to a mortgage. You are also promising to pay the future property taxes on that house. What drives those local property taxes are the future costs of paying state and local workers and retirees, particularly retirees’ pensions and health care. These costs are going in one direction: up.
Unless state and local governments take steps now to reducewww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-2834402534274833632011-12-07T11:08:00.002-05:002011-12-07T11:08:57.941-05:00European disappointmentThe markets are down because one more summit European meeting did not deliver what the markets would like to hear.
Merkel wants centrally controlled fiscal discipline . The problems is that they do not need it because the markets are doing the same job in a much more efficient way.
The next idea would be a political union. This is also off the table. The local power structures do not want to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-59537266349319167862011-12-07T05:25:00.000-05:002011-12-07T05:25:22.492-05:00Good news for stocks?The U.S. receives its highest rating from international investors in more than two years on new optimism that the world’s largest economy will weather the financial crisis in Europe and avoid a recession in 2012, according to a Bloomberg poll. (Source: Bloomberg)
A stronger economy would be followed by stronger commodities, higher bond yields, improved profitabiity, and firm equity markets.
www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-48739033451298709452011-12-06T11:38:00.002-05:002011-12-09T16:08:10.281-05:00Technical patternsThe market is close to an important resistance level as of this writing. De Mark believes stocks have more room to go on the upside, possibly close to the July levels.
It looks like investors are waiting the December 9 meeting of Merkozy. I am sure they will give us again some hope that the problem will be resolved. I am not sure they can beat the markets, however.
The people would rather www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-13611050460672220682011-12-05T21:26:00.007-05:002011-12-05T23:39:58.662-05:00Thought of the dayGermany and France have agreed a common position on tackling the euro-zone debt crisis by pushing for a new EU treaty to enforce budget discipline through automatic sanctions. They plan to bring forward the permanent euro bailout mechanism to 2012 from 2013 -- and both remain opposed to euro bonds.(Source: Der Spiegel)
The Euro project was started and sold to the people because it was going to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-43663936396033190072011-12-05T12:52:00.004-05:002011-12-05T12:54:14.166-05:00About Europe and Italy."Italy is the next suspect..... “Taxes in Italy will be 125 billion euro higher than before the crisis (on an economy of some 1600 bn). Starting next year and the following one, public spending before interest rises from some 39% in 2000 to 46% of GDP in 2010. Then there's another large part of the economy which is formally private, but the management is chosen in Rome, ENI, ENEL, Finmeccanica www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-57777799768598280912011-12-03T14:40:00.004-05:002011-12-03T14:44:05.733-05:00This is the really important truth about the failure of the European experiment.
Europe is failing - tragically - because bureaucrats are taking over. A lesson for the USA?
George Dagninowww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-42124648815831052502011-12-03T11:17:00.000-05:002011-12-03T11:17:26.487-05:00Join me in Akron!I will be speaking to the AAII group on the issues facing Europe, the markets and how to invest NOW!
Akron-Summit County Public Library,
Main Library Building, 60 S.
High St. Parking is free after 6 PM.
The 6:30 PM meeting Tue Dec 6, 2011 in Meeting Room 1
The event is open to the public and is free.
No membership required.
See you there.
Georgewww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-41543933659584448512011-12-02T11:27:00.000-05:002011-12-02T11:27:00.280-05:00About the job reportThe unemployment rate fell to 8.6% because people left the labor force.
When you look at the employment to population ratio, however, the percent of the people working is the same as it was at the bottom of the 2009 recession (click on the graph to enlarge it).
In the 1990s and early 2000s the ratio was close to 64%.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert,www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-51869223094689791702011-12-01T15:58:00.003-05:002011-12-01T15:59:28.168-05:00Technical patternsThe market is up, strongly. The S&P 500 is now close again to the important 1275 resistance level.
The problem is that risk indicators are still rising, as discussed in my next Market Update on Sunday.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-50858846076553691412011-12-01T15:50:00.000-05:002011-12-01T15:50:23.725-05:00Heading south?This Goldman's leading indicator points to weaker economic conditions (click on the chart to enlarge it).
Most economic data, however, suggest the economic is stronger than generally expected.
The trend of commodities since early in the year certainly reflect a weakening economy. The business cycle is still in Phase 4.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-58888571639839686792011-11-30T11:15:00.003-05:002011-11-30T11:17:30.712-05:00Print, print, printSix central banks led by the Federal Reserve lowered the cost of emergency dollar funding for financial companies in a global effort to ease Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis.
The new interest rate is the dollar overnight index swap rate plus 50 basis points, a half percentage-point cut, and the program was extended by six months to Feb. 1, 2013, the Fed said today in a statement in Washington. www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-89590819856967332072011-11-28T18:24:00.000-05:002011-11-28T18:24:07.264-05:00A picture is worth ....The markets soared today.
But make no mistake about it. The crisis is alive and well. Just click on the chart to enlarge it.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-80540110091030425102011-11-26T14:12:00.003-05:002011-11-26T14:13:18.361-05:00Thought of the dayPoliticians take advantage of every situation to gain power and wealth (after they become lobbyists). They are human - this is what humans do. Any time. Any place.
Then problems arise because they think the next guys will solve the issue they created. But the next guys try to kick the can and pass the ball to the next set of politicians. And so on, and so on.
Eventually the time comes to pay www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-38428402675819764332011-11-25T17:27:00.004-05:002011-11-25T17:32:40.839-05:00ObsevationsA client called me to discuss recent market events. He mentioned some statistics showing the steady decline in the population of the western world from Russia to Western Europe, and possibly of the US.
Is the western world disappearing? Should we worry? What are the implications?
The most direct concern is that we are aging and we need someone to support us. As things stand now, it is not goingwww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-50199021153752436002011-11-24T18:14:00.004-05:002011-11-24T18:15:30.734-05:00European trendsGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel again ruled out joint euro-area borrowing and an expanded role for the European Central Bank in fighting the debt crisis.
Euro bonds are “not needed and not appropriate,” Merkel said today at a press conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Strasbourg, France. She said euro bonds would “level the difference” in www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-57474336337526658092011-11-24T10:22:00.006-05:002011-11-24T10:25:39.036-05:00Technical patterns1120-1125 remains an important support range. The market could very well regroup close to it.
Let's hope so. For the time being, however, risk seems to be rising. I will be more specific in the my next "Market Update" of 11/27/ on www.peterdag.com for my subscribers. Friday could bring more surprises.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-9490611307875865102011-11-22T22:53:00.000-05:002011-11-22T22:53:48.224-05:00Late night thoughtThe market futures are down sharply. Asia is down. Risk indicators are rising.
Are we close to panic? The odds are the bottom is not too far. We tend to panic when the market is close to a bottom.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-71184688187393322952011-11-22T03:42:00.004-05:002011-11-22T03:58:39.329-05:00How can we do it if ...."If Congress fails to act over the next year, the Department of Defense will face devastating, automatic, across-the-board cuts that will tear a seam in the nation's defense," Panetta said in a statement. (Souces: Bloomberg)
Of course. No one wants cuts. How can we control the growth of the deficits if everybody complaints - defense, Medicare, Social Security, housing, subsidies to everybody, ..www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-18804301807150962652011-11-21T10:21:00.000-05:002011-11-21T10:21:19.094-05:00Latest newsThe US$ Libor rate is soaring. Is it bad news? Read The Peter Dag Portfolio. Our subscribers know exactly the meaning and implications of this trend.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just visit our website https://www.peterdag.com/ where you can www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-42475351250742532172011-11-21T08:26:00.002-05:002011-11-21T08:27:28.107-05:00Market trendsAn ugly opening this morning.....commodities down...stock futures sharply lower....gold down...European market sharply lower ... My subscribers know why.
The only place to hide: US Treasury bonds.
1125 is an important support levels.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio , in Dag's Exclusive market Alert, and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-51998192902198763052011-11-20T14:28:00.004-05:002011-11-20T16:16:53.799-05:00Wrong questionMust Democracy Be Sacrificed to Save Europe? -- Business Week asks.
It is the opposite. What is happening in Europe it is happening to save democracy with the markets taking over.
Keep in mind that the Europeans were never asked to vote for the EU and that all the bureaucrats in Brussels built a gigantic administration to manage Europe and they were never elected.
The Euro was supposed to www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-33640536963507912732011-11-19T13:26:00.002-05:002011-11-19T13:43:01.499-05:00About the EU destruction of democracywww.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-47552544029001703922011-11-18T22:12:00.006-05:002011-11-18T22:25:15.344-05:00For the exclusive use of my subscribers
You should have received an email explaining the meaning and investment implications of the above graph.
More details in my The Peter Dag Portfolio and my free educational videos on http://www.peterdag.com/.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio. Since 1977
2009 Market Timer of the Year by Timer Digest
To find out more about my in depth views of the markets and my strategy just www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4393121024152614189.post-29695263465522932882011-11-18T05:23:00.002-05:002011-11-18T05:24:17.584-05:00The only feasible solutionSpanish and Italian bonds rose after the European Central Bank was said to buy the nations’ securities, its fifth consecutive day of sovereign-debt purchases. (Source: Bloomberg)
This is the only realistic solution to the European problems. Print money and buy bonds.
The process will eventually - with some lag - be followed by inflation. Inflation will then lower the value of the debt and keep www.peterdag.comhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09624251015300301283noreply@blogger.com0